Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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301
FXUS63 KDTX 160350
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1150 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017


.AVIATION...

The lower clouds have mainly cleared out of the terminals under a
north-northwest low level flow, which typically holds lake clouds
west and north of the terminals. An upper level wave will track
across the area during the morning, generating mainly just mid level
clouds. The partial to full clearing of the skies and weakening
gradient will support light northwest winds through the morning.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings at or below 5000 ft Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Discussion...

Weather to quiet down quickly this evening as any remaining
scattered light showers will end with the passage of secondary cold
front during the late afternoon hours. Will cancel the Wind Advisory
as well as wind gusts, outside of showers anyway, have remained
below 45 mph throughout the day and will decrease substantially in
the 20z-00z time frame.

Much cooler airmass in behind the cold front(s) will allow minimum
temperatures to dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s as surface
ridging builds into the area, but some degree of cloud cover within
unsettled northwest cyclonic flow and wind speeds at 5 mph or more
much of the night should keep frost at bay with perhaps a few patchy
here and there. Likelihood does not appear high enough for even a
mention in the forecast.

Cool readings continue on Monday with diurnal cumulus leading to
partly sunny skies by midday. Highs will hold in the 50s in general.
There will be some moderation in temperatures Monday night into
Tuesday as southwest return flow sets up on west side of ridge as it
settles southeast of area. Temperatures will settle into the lower
40s Monday night and rebound into the middle 60s Tuesday as
southwest wind gusts to 25 mph or so by afternoon. Boundary layer
will then remain somewhat mixed Tuesday night, allowing for winds of
5 to 10 mph, which will hold minimum temperatures in the middle 40s.

High pressure will stay in place over the Mid-Atlantic states
through the extended period, meaning mostly benign weather for SE
Michigan in the week ahead. A tightening surface pressure gradient
will lead to breezy conditions Wednesday. Mild temperatures expected
Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. A weak
cold front is progged to pass through the area on Thursday with no
preciptation expected, and above average temperatures will continue
into Friday and Saturday; highs reaching the low 70s both days. Next
chance of rain returns next Sunday as a stronger cold front moves
into the Great Lakes.

MARINE...

Strong low pressure now exiting northern Lake Huron late this
afternoon. This low has not deepened as rapidly as expected, and
thus winds look to be coming up on the lower end of the forecasted
range. None-less, will be maintaining the gale warning headlines,
all marine areas, but winds certainly appear marginal along the
nearshore waters, and may not get the 3 hrs or more of consecutive
gales.  Winds shifting to the northwest this evening, allowing for
colder air to filter into the Central Great Lakes tonight, still
appears there is a low risk of waterspouts across far southern Lake
Huron as dominant Lake band sets up. Surface ridge axis sliding
through Monday morning will allow for increasing southwest winds
Monday evening and night, topping out between 20 to 25 knots as cold
front washes out over the northern great Lakes on Tuesday. Next cold
front approaching during the mid week period looks stronger, and
thus southwest winds expected to reach around 30 knots late
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...DG/TF
MARINE.......SF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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