Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 262255
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
655 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015


.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW WILL PRODUCE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
(15-20 KFT) PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH
JUST A FEW CU (5000 KFT) TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015


WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT IN
THE RELATIVELY FASTER FLOW TO ITS EAST. DEBRIS CI AND AC WILL MOVE
OVER SE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND WILL GO WITH
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. AFTER 03Z...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AGAIN.  THE
ONE EXCEPTION MAYBE THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB REGIONS AS SOME AC
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NW TOWARD DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT THE SAME FOG
ISSUES GIVEN THE FULL DAY OF DRYING WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND DEW
POINTS FALLING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS
LOWER THAN THE MAV/GFS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MET/NAM GIVE THE CURRENT DEW POINTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

MEANDERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SERVE THROUGH TUESDAY
UNDERNEATH BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. COLUMN DEEP SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP GRAB A DEGREE OR TWO MORE EACH DAY AT THE
SURFACE - HIGHS NEAR 90F EACH DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN
RESIDENCE...NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED UNTIL RETURN
FLOW SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO INFLUENCE
THE REGION.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS EITHER DAY AND THE HEAT INDEX WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OBSERVED TEMPS.

WAVE CRASHING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE RESPECTABLE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTANT
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY DRAGGING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HINGE ON THE
CHARACTER OF TUESDAY/S CONVECTIVE RESPONSE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NWP SUITE SUGGESTS SOME SORT OF WANING COVERAGE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WANDERING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT RE-ENFORCEMENT DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING STAGE RIGHT OVER ONTARIO.

SHOULD BE SOME REASONABLE BUILDING UP OF CAPE AS A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED THETA-E SQUEEZES NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT -
HOWEVER...NOT NECESSARILY TO THE TUNE OF THE NAM/S 3.8 KJ/KG OF 0-
1KM MLCAPE.  MORE LIKELY TO SEE MLCAPE IN THE 2 KJ/KG NEIGHBORHOOD.
THE LACK OF FLOW...THEREBY SUBSEQUENT LACK OF SHEAR...IN THE WARM
SECTOR WILL CERTAINLY ENCOURAGE LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS - WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST A NON-NEGLIGIBLE WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO NOSE IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. 12Z GFS/EURO DEPICT UPPER HEIGHTS
FALLING SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH ARGUES FOR CHANCE POPS.

MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...RBP
LONG TERM....MANN/DT
MARINE.......MANN


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


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