Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 031957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TEH SRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI...ON THE FORWARD
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WAS VERY SLOWLY EDING TO THE SE. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC AND NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN LIGHT E TO NE FLOW THROUGH UPPER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SCT-BKN CU INLAND CNTRL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CU WILL FADE
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME MID CLOUS AROUND THD
PERSISTENT LOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE SE. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN LOWER
60S...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP MINS TO AROUND 60...COOLEST
OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF. SO...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY CNTRL.

FRI...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MI MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD STILL
LINGER...UPPER MI WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND
80...WITH LOWER READINGS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHILE MVFR VSBY IS EXPECTED AT
KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AND IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO FRI WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3
FT WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN
20KT WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



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