Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 220735
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS COVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
AS THE AREA IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (AXIS JUST TO THE WEST OF US AND
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO). AT THE
SURFACE...A 1030MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND INTO ILLINOIS. A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES IS COVERING
MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING TOOK HOLD EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP. AT 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE 19 AT DOE LAKE TO 37 AT IRONWOOD WHERE THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. HAVE SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AT KIMT THIS
MORNING AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST BARAGA AND NORTHERN IRON
COUNTIES. WITH A SMALL TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AT MOST CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.P. SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE VERY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS IT BECOMES
PINCHED BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND AN APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT IN THE CANADIAN PRARIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE 900MB
INVERSION SEEN ON THE 00Z KAPX/KGRB/KINL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A SUNNY
DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS
WHERE/IF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...BUT THINK COVERAGE/POTENTIAL IS LOW. THAT 900MB
INVERSION WILL KEEP MIXING FROM REACHING THE MUCH WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 7C)...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST). DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE GUSTY OVER WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PEAK OUT AROUND 20MPH.

FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW (IN
CANADA) AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT...AS THE ABUNDANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRIES TO OVERCOME THE EXISTING DRY AIR UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN MINNESOTA AND OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS TIED TO WEAK 700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SPREADING EAST
INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO IRON MOUNTAIN. THERE ARE
SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND THE 700MB WHICH COULD GIVE A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND GENERALLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. IF
A LOCATION WOULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS...THINK IT WOULD BE IN THE
ONTONAGON...SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY AREA. DUE TO
THE SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN AND THE DEPARTING
DRY AIR...EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. TO STAY
CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SINCE THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING. THAT SAID...WILL STILL SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE IN THAT AREA.
OVER THE WEST...THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND MIXING FROM THE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.

THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.

THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH HI PRES DOMINATING TODAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WL BE AT SAW EARLY THIS MRNG...
WHEN LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING THRU CROSSOVER DEWPT YDAY AFTN WL
ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND DOWNSLOPE S WIND AT
IWD AND CMX WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT THOSE SPOTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE AN INCRS IN MID CLDS THIS EVNG...AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
SOME -SHRA AT IWD...IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF IN MN...
LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR WL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE
EVNG EVEN IF SOME -SHRA IMPACT IWD. AN INCRSG S WIND ALOFT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE -SHRA CHANCES MAY BRING SOME MARGINAL LLWS TO
IWD LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY BELOW 20KTS. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF






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