Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 030522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN TN
WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S. A SHORTWAVE GETS EJECTED FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA WED AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
SCENARIOS WITH THE NAM DRIER THAN THE GFS. WILL GO WITH A DRIER
SCENARIO SINCE BETTER FORCING REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AND
WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN HAVE ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA ON WED AND KEEP THE EAST
AND FAR SOUTH DRY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST OVERALL FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID LOWER THEM A BIT
TONIGHT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE WEAKENING SFC LOW NEARING FROM MN WILL BE OVER S ONTARIO AND E
MN AT 00Z THURSDAY...AVERAGING 29.8 INCHES. EXPECT THE LOW TO SLOWLY
SINK SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WHILE
FILLING TO A 30.0 INCH TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS WI AND S UPPER MI...AND ONLY S-
SW 5-15KT WINDS UP THROUGH 850MB /LIMITING STORM MOTION/. PW VALUES
WILL AVERAGE 1.5IN W AND CENTRAL. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE IN THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME...MAKING THE FCST A BIT MORE
DIFFICULT. STILL...CAPE VALUES DON/T REALLY GET MUCH ABOVE 300 J/KG
OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER MI. WILL HIGHLIGHT NEAR THE WI BORDER AND
S FOR HIGHEST POPS/QPF. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...AS
THE SFC TROUGH LEANS FARTHER INTO E UPPER MI...BRINGING LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA.

EXPECT THE CANADIAN HIGH TO DROP ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING E SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER/DRY WX FOR AT
LEAST PART OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE
COMMON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE WI BORDER.

THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES FROM SUNDAY ON TO RESULT IN A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST.  WHILE THE MAIN 500MB LOW/TROUGH WILL BE OVER
FAR E CANADA/NE STATES...THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE NEARING FROM S
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE 02/00Z ECMWF IS
STRONGER IN DEEPENING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR
SUNDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON /QUICKER OFF THE ECMWF/...WITH A
SECOND ROUND MONDAY NIGHT AS NW LINGERS BEHIND THE 500MB TROUGH
SINKING ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE NATION. SPECIFICS LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND SFC WINDS GET A BIT MESSY...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LINGER
...RESULTING IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH
WED MORNING. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI WED AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP CIGS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE AT IWD AND CMX
IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT SAW WED EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TSRA BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH
RAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WED THROUGH THU NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07



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