Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 272321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WRN LAKES
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SRLY WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO MN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTREL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH
OVER ERN MT/WY. ISOLD SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE
SUPERIOR BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SAW TO ERY HAVE DISIPATED.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPER
80S INLAND AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.

A MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE
INTO THE SW CORNER OF MANITOBA BY TUE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN TONIGHT THAT MAY GENERATE
AN MCV THAT COULD SPREAD CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA INTO WEST
UPPER MI TUE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTRNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HOLD DOWN HEATING EARLY...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S WHICH HAVE TRENDED LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FCSTS
...EXPECT CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE CWA TO
PREVENT ANY SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING. SINCE THERE IS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...CONTINUED TO MENTION LOWER END CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

BY 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER W LAKE
SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI...EXTENDING THROUGH THROUGH W AND
CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE STRONG LOW SHIFTING NE
ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA...SITUATED OVER S MANITOBA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THE WRAPPED UP LOW WILL LIKELY FEATURE AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
THROUGH FAR W ONTARIO...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO A WARM FRONT OVER W
UPPER MI AND A COLD FRONT OVER ORIENTED S THROUGH FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH OVER W UPPER MI BY
06Z...STRETCH FROM AROUND MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH
DELTA COUNTY BY 12Z...AND E OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION...TO START OUT THE EVENING.
FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE S STORMS RETAINING
THEIR CONVECTIVE LOOK AND E PROGRESSION...WHILE UPPER MI MAY HAVE A
FEW MORE BREAKS. LIKE HOW THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS TREND. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PW
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2IN OVER THE W HALF PRIOR TO 09Z
WEDNESDAY...AND OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI 09-15Z WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MUCH DRIER AIR WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PW VALUES QUICKLY FALL
TO 0.75IN OVER THE W HALF BY 15Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MODERATING TO
AROUND 1IN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB LOW OVER THE W HALF OF
ONTARIO SHIFTS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW
AFTERNOON HOURS W WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS WELL AS
INCREASED WINDS. A W-WNW 30-50KT 850MB JET WILL QUICKLY SWING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WENT TOWARDS THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE TO DEW POINTS...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
40 PERCENT CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE RELIEF...BACK
TO SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE 500MB LOW PUSHES ACROSS HUDSON BAY. IF WE DO GET ANY PRECIP
IT WOULD LIKELY BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AS SEVERAL WAVE ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW IN W-NW FLOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO MID
80S...WARMEST S CENTRAL.

A STRONGER WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE STEADY SFC-500MB LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY SHOULD SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS DISTANCE THERE ARE A FEW DISCREPANCIES ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING WILL
RACE ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON
BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST
NEAR 25KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT...WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 30KTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS BY MIDDAY WED OVER THE
WRN LAKE.

THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB


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