Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 091044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
544 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 544 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

NW LES continues, with the heaviest snow associated with the Lake
Nipigon band which is currently over far eastern Marquette and
western Alger County. The Nipigon band will shift east across Alger
County today, dropping up to 9 inches in spots there today. A ridge
pushing toward the area from the SW tonight will cause winds to
veer, which when combined with a shortwave moving through will
amplify the LES over northern Ontonagon and Houghton Counties. This
may lead to 6-9" of snow in that area. The LES out east will
continue to slowly shift east while diminishing some. Only headline
changes were to drop the warnings for Baraga and Keweenaw Counties
as only light LES is expected there. The Marquette County warning
may be able to be cancelled early today as LES shift east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Sat through Sun: Continued lake effect setup through the weekend,
with a weak northwest flow along the lee-side of a surface ridge
stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast through Chicago. This
will keep likely POPs going for the Keweenaw and the favored areas
east of Marquette thru Sat ngt. Mid-lvl flow will begin to
transition to more of a zonal orientation briefly Sun with weak
surface ridging sliding over the Upper Peninsula. This should bring
a lull to lake effect snow; however, this may only be temporary as
guidance continues to prog a developing mid-lvl wave across the
Northern Rockies Sun ngt.

By Sun ngt the mid-lvl vort max will be strengthening as it lifts
northeast through the Missouri Valley towards Southeast Wisconsin.
Guidance continues to develop a robust surface low over Chicago
lifting northeast across Lower Michigan early Mon morning. The
challenge for POPs for Sun ngt into early Mon will be heavily driven
by the path the shortwave takes. A further north path and POPs will
need to be adjusted higher for Sun ngt/early Mon, due to the more
favored iscentropic ascent region entering the Eastern U.P. Temps
for the weekend will continue to be seasonal in the 20s with
overnight lows in the single digits above zero Sat ngt due to less
cloud cover, then back into the lower teens Sun ngt with increasing

Mon through Thur: With the surface low lifting northeast of Lower
Michigan, the main focus will be on the arctic airmass poised to
drop south from Central Canada early next week. Flow will quickly
turn northwesterly with optimal conditions for LES to kick-in Mon
ngt through much of the extended periods. Guidance continues to prog
a potent surface ridge over the Missouri Valley, which places a
modest northwest flow over the Upper Peninsula. Thermal trough of -
14 to -18 deg c at 850mb slides overhead and will lock the region
into sub-seaonal temps as highs may struggle to warm beyond the
single digits above zero.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1255 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Lake effect snow continues for mainly IWD and CMX. Some blowing snow
as well but with winds less than 20 kts, main vsby reduction is from
the snow. Overall at IWD and CMX expect the snow showers to produce
IFR vsby with MVFR cigs. Vsby may trend toward VFR later tonight
into Fri at IWD as winds back more nw or wnw. Winds backing nw at
SAW overnight should ensure mainly VFR conditions into Friday
although a stray les band could briefly lower vsby down to MVFR late

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 544 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Winds will remain less than 20 kts through Mon. W to NW winds
increase to 30 kts by later Tue with gales possible Tue night into
Wed as bitter cold air arrives. There is a good chance of heavy
freezing spray by the middle of next week.

Upper Michigan...
  Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for

  Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ007-084-

  Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ005.

  Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ013.

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Beachler
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