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000
FXUS63 KMQT 251923
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
323 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions continue this
  afternoon with minimum relative humidities around 20-25
  percent across much of the area and wind gusts remaining
  mainly below 15 mph.
- Two low pressure systems, one this weekend and another into
  early next week, bring an unsettled pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

RAP analysis shows the high pressure is currently centered over
southern Ontario, extending over the Great Lakes Basin with mid
level ridging over the Plains and a trough over the southwestern
U.S.. WV imagery shows a significantly dry air mass over the CWA
which is yielding clear skies and warmer than normal temps. With the
high pressure shifting east through tonight, southeast flow will
continue to keep the east cooler. An easterly wind component has
been observed along Lake Superior, resulting from the lake breeze
component, keeping those along the immediate lakeshore cooler. Highs
in the east are expected to peak in the upper 40s to mid 50s this
afternoon with low 50s to low 60s over the west; some mid 60s are
possible in the far west where there is downsloping flow. Mixing has
lowered RHs into the 20% range this afternoon save for areas with
onshore flow off Lake Michigan, but luckily wind gusts are expected
to continue mainly below 15 mph as winds aloft are also light. This
will continue borderline elevated fire weather conditions this
afternoon over the east and into the early evening hours over the
west. Be mindful of burn restrictions.

The trough over the southwest takes a negative tilt tonight as it
lifts northeast into NE/KS. With sfc high pressure and mid level
ridging still over the Great Lakes, the dry weather under clear
skies continues. While better subsidence will be located well east
of the UP, radiative cooling should bring lows into the mid 20s to
upper 30s with colder temps in the east. Light southeast winds
continue, stronger over the west where there is downsloping. Model
soundings indicate that the nocturnal inversion layer should prevent
stronger winds aloft from mixing down until late tonight/early
Friday morning over the far west, keeping gusts mainly below 20 mph
until Friday morning. Meanwhile, a low pressure system set to impact
the UP this weekend associated with the trough will be developing in
the lee of the central Rockies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW, a
shortwave in the central Rockies, and a ridge across the Mississippi
Valley into the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. This shortwave gets
kicked out into the central plains 12z Fri and becomes negatively
tilted by 00z Sat. This shortwave moves into the upper Great Lakes
12z Sat as the Pacific NW trough dives into the southern Rockies.
The shortwave still affects the upper Great Lakes on Sat through 00z
Sun and then the trough in the southern Rockies heads northeast into
the northern and central plains 12z Sun. Deeper moisture and 850-500
mb q-vector convergence arrives by 00z Sat over the far west and
spreads across the area through 12z Sun. Slowed down pops on Fri
further and even into Fri evening as model trends continue to delay
the onset of pcpn. Antecedent dry airmass over the area would also
argue that low levels will take a while to saturate with a dry
southeast flow, so this would argue again to delay pops on Fri.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over
the Rockies and plains 12z Sun with a shortwave that heads northeast
and negatively tilts into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Mon. This
shortwave heads northeast into Ontario 12z Tue. Upper ridging sets
up over the plains 12z Wed and becomes more amplified with time 12z
Thu. Active and wet pattern continues this forecast period. Tue does
look to be the driest day along with Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

With high pressure currently centered over southern Ontario shifting
east toward southern Quebec, VFR conditions will continue at all
sites through the 18Z TAF period. Winds will be generally light
through most of tonight, mainly staying under 10 kts. Late tonight,
increasing winds above nocturnal inversion may lead to conditions
approaching LLWS criteria at IWD/CMX. Opted to add this into the IWD
TAF where there is the highest confidence; will continue to monitor
this with future TAF issuances. High clouds move in Friday morning
ahead of the next system with some gusty south to southeast winds up
to 20-25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep winds below 20 kts into
this evening. Southeast winds will increase to around 20 kts tonight
with southeast/east to 20-30 kts Friday and Friday night; the
strongest winds are expected along the U.S. Canadian border waters
of eastern Lake Superior. The low pressure then tracks northeast
across the lake late in the day Saturday into Saturday night
resulting in 20-30 kt north winds Saturday night becoming northeast
on Sunday behind the low pressure system. Northeast winds remain
around 20-30 knots through Sunday night with a few gale force gusts
to 35 knots possible near Isle Royale and across the west half of
Lake Superior. Another low pressure system moves through the Upper
Great Lakes Monday into Monday night with winds up to 30 knots
yielding west winds behind the low that are expected to diminish
back below 20 kts by Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...07