Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 022004
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
404 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WEST...STRONG
500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE NAM SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST TROUGH
HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA ON THU.

NAM KEEPS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING THU AFTERNOON. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BEFORE THEN...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
UNTIL THEN. DO HAVE POPS IN FOR LATER THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THEN AND THE SHORTWAVES NEAR. GOING
TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER POPS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SPENT MOST TIME HELPING WITH SHORT TERM WARNING OPERATIONS...SO
RELIED HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...EXPECT A SOME LOW END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE REGION FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE SAT TO HUDSON BAY BY
TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUN THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WED...POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

RAIN W DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT TS RETURN
TO SAW. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY S OF THE AIRPORT. WITH
PLENTY OF RAIN AT ALL 3 SITES...FOG IS A CONCERN. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS/VIS TO RETURN BY MID-LATE MORNING THURSDAY AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF


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