Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 161850
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
250 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a shortwave over the upper Great Lakes
this morning which quickly moves through and then westerly upper
flow takes over through the rest of the forecast period. 850-500 mb
q-vector convergence and moisture move out this morning. Much
quieter this morning than yesterday morning, but still did get some
lightning strikes earlier at start of shift off of P59 with lake
enhancement and a shortwave moving through the area. Have some pops
in across eastern Lake Superior to cover this. Warmed temperature up
a bit today with drier air and southwest winds allowing temperatures
to warm rapidly. There will also be some downslope component in
southwest wind downslope areas near Lake Superior. Overall, a few
minor changes here and there to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

...Warm with next chances for rain arriving next weekend...

Upper level troughing over the area early this week gives way to a
more zonal flow pattern mid to late this week. Upper level trough
slides across northern Ontario late Wed into Wed night. Main 980mb
sfc low stays well to the north over Hudson Bay but weak cold front
should bring slightly cooler temps on Thu, especially near Lk
Superior with onshore winds. Main impact from this front will be
gusty winds, both ahead of it on Wed when gusts could reach 30-40
mph but also in its wake on Thu when northwest wind gusts could
reach at least 30 mph if not higher.

Once the shortwave trough exits into eastern Canada by Fri and Sat,
heights will rise sharply downstream of developing troughing over
western Conus. Low pressure tied to that troughing moves from
western Canada Sat to scntrl Canada on Sat. Upper Great Lakes will
be within low-level southwesterly flow ahead of the low. H85 temps
are forecast to reach low-mid teens Fri into Sat. Conservative
estimates would put high temps into the low 70s both days. Given the
setup with limited cloud cover in the warm sector could see isolated
readings pushing 80 degrees on Friday. More cloud cover Sat,
especially west will keep that potential more limited but still we
are looking at temps that would be solid 15-20F above normal both
days.

Chances for showers and possible thunderstorms will increase through
Sat and especially be higher Sat night into Sun morning as surge of
very high or possibly record breaking PWATS advects into the region
ahead of approaching sfc cold front. NAEFS ensembles indicate PWATS
up to 2 SD above normal, but based on current medium range guidance
could see those deviations increasing further as we get closer to
the weekend. Despite similar setup to this past weekend in terms of
a wetter pattern as the weekend goes on, the lack of strong low
pressure/tighter pressure gradient in the vcnty will result in winds
not near as strong as was just experienced this last weekend.

Once the cold front moves through, looks like upper level pattern
will try to switch to something that would bring a more typical fall
like weather pattern to the Great Lakes. Also it appears that this
troughing would be more persistent per current models and NAEFS and
EMCWF ensembles. At the least, max temps for much of next week would
have better chance of ending up blo normal (normal highs center
around 50F for last week of Oct across Upper Michigan). Given the
way fall has gone thus far, we`ll have to see if these trends hold
up.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 143 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period.
A few fair weather cu this aftn along with a period of thicker mid
clouds. Gusty winds at the TAF sites will diminish this evening but
expect LLWS to develop at all TAF sites before midnight as a warm
front crosses the area. The LLWS will end before daybreak on Tue.
Winds later Tue will not be as gusty as they are today.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 301 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

Expect the winds to ramp back up to 20 to 30 knots into tonight. No
gales seen after that as winds look to remain in the 15 to 25 knot
range mostly. Do get close to gales on Thu with west winds up to 30
knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...07


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