Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 262015
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
315 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great
Lakes this morning that will move through today. This will bring
some light snow through the area through this afternoon and then the
snow moves out by evening. Nam shows some 850-500 mb q-vector
convergence and deeper moisture moving through the area through mid
afternoon before both exit by evening. Both return on Mon with the
deeper moisture staying to the north of the area. Overall, pretty
quiet this forecast period. The snow will be moving out rapidly
early this evening and there could be some light lake effect snow
showers overnight in the keweenaw and east of Marquette, but
inversion heights are really low and very dry air is in the low
levels overnight. Lowered low temperatures a bit tonight with light
winds and clear skies which will allow some good radiational cooling
to take place.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 506 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

Models suggest that a progressive pattern will prevail through
next week as a mid/upper level trough over the west moves through
the north central CONUS and Great Lakes into the northeast by the
end of the week. A transition toward a more zonal pattern is
expected next weekend.

Monday and Monday night. Scattered snow showers will be possible
early over the Keweenaw early with wrly low level flow and 850 mb
temps climbing from around -14C. Otherwise,  WAA ahead of the next
trough will boost temps into the mid 30s under partly to mostly
cloudy skies.

Tuesday into Tuesday night, as southwest mid/upper level flow
develops ahead of a trough into the wrn CONUS, the models have been
consistent in bringing a shortwave, bands of fgen, moderate
WAA/isentropic ascent toward the nrn Great Lakes. Although the
forcing remains somewhat unorganized and confidence in the details
remains low, it should be strong enough to support QPF into the
0.10 to 0.25 inch range, greatest over the northwest half.
Precipitation type also remains uncertain. Wet-bulb zero heights
favor mainly snow over the northwest and a mix or mainly rain
changing to snow over the southeast half as highs climb into the
upper 30s in most areas. There be a mix with freezing rain of
freezing drizzle early as a warm layer aloft develops. In
addition, there may also be a period where ice nuclei are absent.
With temps marginal for snow, any accumulations to near an inch
should remain confined to the Keweenaw.

Wednesday, model trends and the more consistent ECMWF suggest that
the large area of precipitation associated with a shortwave and sfc
trough along the stronger baroclinic zone will remain to the south
of the cwa. Slowly backing northeast winds and 850 mb temps in the
-8C to -10C range may support some light snow showers or fzdz into
locations downstream of Lake Superior.

Thursday-Saturday, weak clipper shortwaves may affect the region in
the developing nw mid/upper level flow. Confidence is higher that
enough cold air will slide into the area for increasing nw flow LES
from late Thursday into Friday as 850 mb temps drop to around -21C
by Friday morning. A stronger Pacific shortwave and sfc moving
toward Manitoba will bring increasing WAA Saturday with a chance of
light snow along with moderating temps into the 30s.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

Some -shsn wl continue off and on much of the day, especially at
CMX, where vsbys wl end up in the IFR range a good portion of the
time. The best chc for the lower vsbys wl be under more focused shsn
along a lo pres trof that wl move w-e acrs Upr MI in the aftn.
Expect at least a brief period of lower IFR vsby associated with the
heavier sn showers that occur along this trof in IWD and CMX that wl
clr SAW arnd 27/00Z. The arrival of much drier air behind this trof
wl then bring a return of VFR conditions this evng through the
rest of the forecast period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 315 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

Winds will remain 30 kts or less through mid Tue afternoon. There
will be a brief period of gales late Tue afternoon and evening
across the west half of Lake Superior. Winds will then remain below
30 knots through the rest of the forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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