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000
FXUS63 KMQT 100453
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1153 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS NOAM.
ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS MOVING FROM SE SASK
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE OVER WRN MN
SEPARATED LOWS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER NE MONTANA. WSW WINDS
ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WERE SLOWLY VEERING AS THE SHRTWV ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE INITIAL DOMINANT BAND THROUGH THE NRN KEWEENAW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAD LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE
KEWEENAW HAVE INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE SHRTWV WHICH
HAS BOOSTED INVERSION HEIGHTS TO AROUND 9K FT AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP
INTO THE -18C TO -21C RANGE.

TONIGHT...
THE HIGH RES MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT
UPSTREAM TRENDS OF LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD
PUSH HEAVY LES BANDS OVER THE KEWEENAW GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
NORTH OF M-38. SLR VALUES MAY BE LIMITED BY THE VERY COLD INCOMING
ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH WILL KEEP THE DGZ BELOW 2K FT. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY. BY 12Z...EXPECT
THAT THE HEAVIER LES SHOULD LIFT TOWARD EAGLE RIVER AND COPPER
HARBOR BEFORE MOVING OFFHSORE TUE MORNING. STRONG WRLY GUSTING TO 35
MPH WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS
WITH VSBY AOB 1/4SM IN THE HEAVIER LES BANDS BEFORE TAPER OFF AFTER
03Z/TUE.

TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE WITH WINDS OF
10 TO 15 MPH MAY DROP WIND CHILL VALUES TO 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 7 MPH OR LESS
OVER THE COLDER INLAND AREAS...KEEPING WIND CHILLS FROM REACHING
ADVISORY THRESHOLD. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AS THE
SHRTWV APPROACHES BRINGING SLOWLY CLIMBING TEMPS LATE.

TUESDAY...
THE SASK SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...IT SHOULD STILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH OVER UPPER MI TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH A
FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF IN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH BUT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE LIKELY POPS. VEERING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV INTO NW UPPER MI AS THE
SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND 18Z. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW. SINCE THERE IS A GAP BETWEEN THE MON NIGHT LES AND THE NEXT
BATCH THE HEADLINE WAS NOT EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LINGERING TROUGH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A LAKE INDUCED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL INTO THURSDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND -21C
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY TO -24C ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STRONG OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY (LAKE TEMPS AROUND 2-3C) WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY HIGH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS (12/15KFT WEST/EAST) AND LAKE INDUCED CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 800-1000J/KG FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LES
WILL BE AIDED ON TUESDAY NIGHT BY LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM...ALLOWING THE STRONGER BANDS TO REALIZE THE HIGHER
INVERSION HEIGHTS. BUT AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT AND THE LOSS OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE WEAKER
BANDS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PARAMETER REALLY HIGHLIGHTS LUCE COUNTY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE VALUES BEGIN TO FALL TO MORE MODERATE
LAKE EFFECT VALUES DURING THE DAY AS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL.
THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO SEE LOW END MODERATE VALUES DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. AS FOR SNOW RATIOS...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT VALUES
AROUND 20-1 AT THIS POINT...SINCE MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL BE AT
THE HIGH END OR ABOVE THE DGZ. THINK THE HIGHEST RATIOS WILL BE
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SHOVES
THE DGZ TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THOSE HIGHER RATIOS MAY BE LIMITED
SOMEWHAT BY STRONGER WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO
FRACTURING OF THE DENDRITES TO GO ALONG WITH MAINLY COLUMNS. BUT
THOSE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW THE
LIMITED DENDRITES TO REMAIN TOGETHER.

WITH CONDITIONS APPEARING GOOD FOR LES...WINDS WILL DETERMINE THE
BAND PLACEMENT. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO BE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
AREAS TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST...EXPECT BANDS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SETUP IN THE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL
BE INCREASED CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND HAVE THE LONGEST FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING THAT THE DOMINATE
BAND MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY...BUT LOOKS TO BE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN REMAINING THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING NORTH ON
THURSDAY DUE TO A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN U.P.  WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND A PROLONGED EVENT (CURRENT FORECAST OF
1-2FT IN FAR NE LUCE COUNTY BY THURSDAY MORNING)...OPTED TO ISSUE A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR LUCE COUNTY. ALGER COUNTY IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN...AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE BAND SINKS.
BEST OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE SOUTHWEST PUSH...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS KEEP WINDS
OUT OF THE WNW TO WESTERLY DIRECTION. THUS...HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF
ANY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME AND HOPEFULLY WE/LL BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN
THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT IN THE NEXT 24HRS.

FARTHER WEST...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE WNW FAVORED AREAS
FROM ONTONAGON THROUGH THE KEWEENAW. WITH HE SURFACE TROUGH LIKELY
SETUP ACROSS ONTONAGON COUNTY...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SORT
OF DOMINATE BAND AND THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE AMOUNTS AN INCH OR TWO UNDER WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL
NOT ISSUE A WATCH. SHOULD BE A SOLID ADVISORY AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH WARNING AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERAL MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS. SINCE
THERE IS A WARNING OUT FOR THOSE AREAS...WILL HOLD OFF NOW AND
 LET MID SHIFT PUT UP ADVISORIES ALL AT ONCE.

WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE
SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
(OR EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). THIS
WILL PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE
FAR NORTHEAST PART OF LUCE COUNTY DURING THAT TIME. INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO LOOK TO LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD TO 5-7KFT...SO
WOULD EXPECT THE INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS TO DIMINISH AS THE DGZ
LOWERS TO THE SURFACE. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT WILL
LIKELY BE SOUTH THAN THE ONE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME CONCERNS
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
 THEN POTENTIALLY 10 DEGREES COLDER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS STAYING UP MORE WITH THE
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND A
DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING IN AND LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER TEMPS (IF THE
CLOUDS STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST) BUT ALSO LIMIT WIND CHILL VALUES...BUT
STILL EXPECT THEM IN THE -25 TO -34 DEGREE F RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY TO NEXT MONDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR
THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LEADING
TO SOME MODERATION OF THE COLDER AIR AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
WESTERLY. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL VARY ON
THE EXACT SOLUTION AND TIMING AS THE DISTURBANCES PHASE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS A SURFACE TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (STRETCHING NORTHWEST
FROM THE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST) FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...
850MB TEMPS AROUND -22C AND LIKELY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LES FOR
AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN MISSED BY THE LES AT THE END OF LAST WEEK AND
THIS WEEK. SINCE THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS THIS
WEEKEND...WILL TREND POPS UP IN THE NORTHERLY WIND AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO/EHWO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DIVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

KIWD...WILL BE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
RETURN TUE MORNING WITH APPROACH OF NEXT DISTURBANCE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THIS REMAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS THE WIND BACKS TO THE SW AS THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. AS WINDS GO BACK WEST BY TUE
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TO VLIFR WITH BLOWING
SNOW AND HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AFFECTING THE TAF SITE
THROUGH TUE EVENING.

KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE MORNING WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR GALES. THE FIRST TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING WRLY GALES OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
MORNING...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS BEHIND IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WESTERLY WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE LAKE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ007.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ245-
     248>251-265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248>251-
     264>267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-240>244-263-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB