Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 300653
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR PICKS UP A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
INLAND TODAY...THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY...PRECIP WILL
ATTEMPT TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER THIS TIME
AROUND...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AMID WEAKENING FORCING
TO STAVE OFF ANY PRECIP. BUT AGAIN...VIRGA WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.

HIGHER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE OFFSET BY SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD-COVER
AND STRONGER NE GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...PRODUCING
HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.
MIXING WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...SO MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND. THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUING DRYING TREND OF AT LEAST SHORT TERM
WILDFIRE FUELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

IT STILL APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE
ACROSS THE CONUS/SRN CANADA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. IN GENERAL...
RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA
AND AT TIMES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH PEAK
AMPLITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS
ENERGY APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT
OF A CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MEAN ROCKIES
TROF TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. THUS...
THERE IS LITTLE PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN CANADA RIDGE WHICH REACHES PEAK AMPLITUDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED TO DROP
FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN COLD FROPA
PROBABLY OCCURRING TUE NIGHT. SO...FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THIS FROPA
BRINGS THE ONLY PCPN POTENTIAL THAT IS WORTHY OF A MENTION IN FCST.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE
TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN MAXES. AFTER LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGE THRU SUN...SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR MON...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL RULE THE AFTN HRS KEEPING THOSE
AREAS COOLER. WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE
NIGHT. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL
INTO 60S. COOLER WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD NRN
ONTARIO. OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING A COLD MID LEVEL LOW INTO NRN ONTARIO ON WED
WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLD THIS FEATURE OVER OR N OF HUDSON BAY.
TODAY`S 12Z GFS DELAYS ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL LOW INTO NRN ONTARIO
UNTIL FRI. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THIS FEATURE FOR EARLY MAY
WITH GFS SHOWING MIN 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN AROUND 5150M JUST NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY. THU SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WED...BUT STILL COOL. WARMING WILL CONTINUE
FRI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...AS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...TODAYS 00Z/12Z
NAEFS OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO KEEP UPPER MI ON THE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL
TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER SE CANADA. SO...TEMPS ACROSS UPPER MI
SHOULD OVERALL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL HEADING INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF MAY...BUT PROBABLY WITH A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE IF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FASTER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KCMX LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH-END MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH A POCKET OF
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO
FUNNELING EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS
HIGH AS 25 KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER



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