Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 280907
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU THIS AFTN. THERE WL BE INCRSG HI CLDS THIS EVNG. BUT THE LLVLS
WL REMAIN DRY DESPITE AN INCRSG S WIND BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE
E AND THE NEXT LO PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SO VFR WX WL
PERSIST. LLWS WL DVLP AT THE SITES THIS EVNG WITH THE STRENGHTENING
S WIND ABOVE A NEAR SFC STABLE LYR CAUSED BY SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS


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