Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 150733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE MOST
PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS DIVING INTO ERN MONTANA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES NEAR CYQT HAD DRAGGED A COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN UPPER
MI. THE SHRTWV TAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN TRACE PCPN AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING
INTO W UPPER MI WITH A PROMINENT CU FIELD IN THE SEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR 4C.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE IN
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 1C. EXPECT MIN READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND.

MONDAY...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST QVECTOR
CONV AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONTANA SHRTWV WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 1C TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TUE AND WED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NCENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI
AND SAT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
EVEN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN QUEBEC ON TUE...DROPPING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NNE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. MOST MODELS
SHOWING QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISAGREED ON. WILL INCREASE
POPS GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. WED LOOKS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLIER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL. ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A
1025MB SFC HIGH CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE FROST OVER
INTERIOR ERN UPPER MI WED NIGHT...BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP A COLD FORECAST WITH FROST
GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. INITIALLY...PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP WILL BE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM BEEFY SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THE IMPENDING SFC TROUGH AND DEPARTING SFC HIGH. FORCING
THEM TRANSITIONS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE UPPER/SFC TROUGHS
ON SAT...BUT WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 700J/KG OF CAPE ON SAT...BUT THAT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FACTORS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CAPE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF HOT SFC TEMPS AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 16C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LAKE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL NEED CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVEN
APPROACHES.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUN AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA





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