Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 231122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
722 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

Water vapor imagery this morning shows an elongated area of mid-
level moisture associated with a slow moving cold front. North of
this cold front across the central Plains and up into southern
Wisconsin and lower Michigan. Northwest of this front, an upper-
level trough continues to dig southeast towards the upper Great
Lakes, with shortwave energy rotating about the base of the trough.
With a relaxed pressure gradient, winds become light and variable
across much of the area this morning. These light winds coupled with
lingering low-level moisture have allow for some patchy ground fog
to develop, with some locations popping in and out of the shallow
fog. Further to the east, fog is more widespread and at times dense
as dew points are a few degrees higher.

With daytime heating and upper-level clouds pushing southeast of the
area through the mid-late morning hours, any lingering fog should
begin to dissipate as diurnal heating picks up. Fog across the east
should be the last to clear, as it will be more dense in those
locations. Later this afternoon rain showers will be possible mainly
across the east, but cannot rule out additional diurnal development
further to the west across the southwest and south central portions
of Upper Michigan as the above mentioned upper-level wave clips the
region and a weak surface trough swings through. However, the better
low-level convergence and chances for precipitation is expected to
be across the east, where the Lake Superior and Michigan breeze will
converge. As previously noted, cannot rule out a few rumbles of
thunder, but for the most part given how dry the mid-level are with
shallow CAPE profiles, opted to leave out mentions of thunder for
now. Otherwise, expect a breezy day across much of the area, but
especially across the west and central, as deep mixing develops
throughout the day. A few locations could see wind gusts upwards of
30mph throughout the afternoon.

Winds will begin to weaken as the sunsets, along with any lingering
rain showers, but winds may stay quasi-breezy tonight with another
shortwave is progged to drop down across the area and push another
weak surface trough across Upper Michigan. We could see a few rain
showers develop along this surface trough late tonight, especially
across the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

The wet and cooler than normal pattern for the weekend into early
next week will transition to a warmer but still fairly active
pattern for mid to late next week.

Ridging over the western CONUS and over Greenland will allow a broad
mid-upper level trough to persist over the east half of the CONUS
for the weekend into early next week. As a result, Upper Mi can
expect increased cloud cover along with periods of rain showers and
isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The better chances for rain will
occur with the diurnal instability cycle, during peak heating in the
afternoon and syncronized with a series of shortwaves sliding
through the trough and across the Upper Lakes. At this point, it
looks like the best chances will likely be Saturday through Sunday,
mainly in the afternoon, as a couple of stronger shortwaves slide
just south of the region. There will be some lingering showers on
Monday, but coverage may be more isolated to scattered over mainly
the east half, as the mid-level trough axis and associated sfc
trough push east. Temperatures Sat thru Mon will generally be in the
60s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to around 50.

Models are trending toward a break in pcpn for Tue as a confluent
flow develops ahead of the advancing mid-level ridge over the Plains
and sfc ridging builds into the area. The sfc ridge will move east
Tue night in advance of a cold front that will slide into the area
late Wednesday into Thursday. As the front slides through the chance
of showers and thunderstorms will return once again. A few of the
models also indicate MUCAPEs of 1000-1500 j/kg along with deep layer
shear near 30 kts so there may also be a threat of strong to
possibly severe storms with convection that moves through the area
late Wed into Thu. Ahead of the front and under the ridge at least
Tue into Wed, temperatures will rebound closer to normal with highs
in the 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 721 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

With VFR conditions expected, the main concern today will be the
gusty west-southwest winds later this morning and afternoon. A few
showers are possible, although confidence was not high enough in the
overall coverage to warrant any mentions in the TAFs. Towards the
very end of this TAF period, across the west ceilings should begin
to lower ahead of a surface trough that may push showers into the
KIWD/KCMX terminals by the 10-12Z time frame. Opted to leave
mentions out to allow for subsequent TAF issuance to fine tune the
timing, but did mention hints of lowering ceilings with scattered


.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 359 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

Given the current temperature and dew point spread showing up across
the far eastern portions of the lake, expect some patchy fog to
linger through the morning hours, and possibly into portions of the
day today. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon,
then decrease during the overnight hours to around 10 to 15 knots by
Saturday morning. Winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected to continue
into early next week.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Ritzman
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