Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 162057
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
257 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

PRIMARY CHALLENGES INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY. 16.12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
19.12Z...DIVERGING SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SHORT-WAVES MOVING THROUGH PARENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING
MORE ZONAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

16.20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG ARCTIC/COLD FRONT DRAPED
FROM NEAR ROSEAU MN TO ABERDEEN SD. THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
WITH IT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AMOUNTING TO NO MORE THAN AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AND STRONG NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE OBS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ND SHOWING
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AND ALTHOUGH THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY
SOMEWHAT AS IT DROPS SOUTH...16.19Z RAP BRINGS A NOSE OF 35 TO 40
KTS AT 0.5 KM INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH A DEEPENING WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL
FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND
NORTHEAST IA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...
REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW FROM 17.12Z TO 18.00Z
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
POOR VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

850 HPA TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO -18 C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
18.12Z (TUESDAY MORNING). THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST MORNING
SO FAR THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO WITH FAVORED COLD SPOTS DROPPING BELOW ZERO. COMBINED
WITH WESTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE. THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
SHOULD SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY AS MONDAY/S SNOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TEENS.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MOST SNOW WILL FALL TO THE NORTH AND
EAST NEAREST THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND HIGHEST MOISTURE...
ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MO BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE REGION REMAINS FULLY ENTRECHED WITHIN ARCTIC AIR MASS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS COULD RIVAL THOSE FROM TUESDAY MORNING.

MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS BY
THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 30S. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 16.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST WITH ITS
PRECIP THAN THE GFS...SO FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH
WITH 20 TO 30 POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP GIVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

ALL EYES ON APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. LOOK FOR THIS FRONT TO MAKE PASSAGE
THROUGH KRST AND KLSE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SWING WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW AT KRST. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BEE SEEN MONDAY MORNING AS THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR
PUSHES IN. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WITH GUST NEARING 30KT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT KRST. KLSE LOOKS TO BE A
BIT MORE SHELTERED BUT SOME DRIFTING MAY STILL BE NOTED.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR SKY CONDITIONS DETERIORATING INTO MVFR
BETWEEN 23-24Z WITH SOME FLURRIES. PLAN ON KRST TO SLIP INTO SOME
IFR VIS/CIGS BY 15Z AS BLSN BECOMES A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ086-
     087-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008-
     009-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS



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