Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 171720
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE WINDS AND LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM INITIALIZED
WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL USE A BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

17.08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL WI WITH ITS PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ANGLE OF MN
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. GFS/ECMWF PAINT LIGHT QPF AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEAST IA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILES. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

TODAY WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 30 TO 35 KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITHIN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS
FROM 15 TO 25 MPH REGION-WIDE AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES
ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND A COOLING THERMAL PROFILE...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN INCREASING SURFACE TO 700
HPA WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR AND DRY WITH
A 500 HPA RIDGE OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY WITH THE
NEXT PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE RIDGING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EXPANSIVE MVFR CLOUD SHIELD HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND IN/UNDER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SOME
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF MN/WI TODAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO LOWER MI...BUT EVEN THIS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE BKN-OVC
MVFR DECK. WITH PLENTY OF MVFR CLOUDS ALL THE WAY UPSTREAM INTO
CENTRAL MAN AND NORTHWEST ONT AND ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO DROP
ACROSS THE MN/WI TONIGHT...CIGS MAINLY IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE TO
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THRU TONIGHT AND AT LEAST SAT MORNING.
WINDS TO REMAIN BRISK FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SAT...WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS MORE IN THE 10KT RANGE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING THRU
SAT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS



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