Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 261816
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTH OFF THE EAST
COAST. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA WIL
PERSIST...BUT WEAKEN. DUE TO THE MOTION OF CRISTOBAL...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK FORM NE TO N OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE LIMITED MOISTURE NOW AROUND 900 MB LARGELY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THU...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS  HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH I-40 CORRIDOR INTO SRN VA ON BY LATE
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AS CAPES INCREASE TO PERHAPS
1000J/KG OR MORE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT WIDELY
SCT/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THU EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S.
THROUGH TUE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SATURDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW NC MOUNTAINS
AND NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SCT ELSEWHERE
ON SUNDAY. WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SE
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW MVFR CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY HAVE RISEN TO LOW VFR
LEVELS...AND COVERAGE REMAINS GREATER TO THE EST OF THE FIELD. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW CLOUD COVER DECREASING OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE N
TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON.

AT KAVL...KAVL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CIG AND VSBY AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AS HAPPENED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKY COVER
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIMITED WITH TIME. LIGHT N WINDS WILL
PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR.  LOW VFR CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.REMAIN
LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT FOG AT TAF SITES
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOG IS INDICATED TO IN THE VICINITY...GENERALLY
TO THE N AND W.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     LOW   52%     LOW   51%     LOW   53%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT






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