Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 160541
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
141 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances have mostly ended apart from a few sprinkles possible
through this evening, but more rain will return Sunday. Daytime
temperatures will be warm and spring-like through the weekend. Drier
and cooler conditions will return early next week as high pressure
arrives in the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 135 AM Saturday...Numerous showers have developed in the NW
flow upslope area and along a sfc front dropping down into the
area from the N, with a few noted also across the I-40 corridor
east of the mtns. The likely prob over the Smokies looks really
good right about now. Have added a slight chance across the NC nrn
foothills and NW Piedmont to account for the radar trends. Extensive
high level cloudiness will keep temps mild, so lows will remain
about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. At this late hour, its still
difficult to say what the extent of fog will be through daybreak
given conflicting evidence.

Otherwise...the upper pattern remains zonal Saturday and expect
decent column drying leading to warming temps into the m70s east
of the mtns and arnd 70 F mtn valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 146 PM EDT Friday: As the axis of a weak upper shortwave on
the periphery of an expansive Hudson low dips across the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, it`ll interact with a lobe of southern stream moisture
emanating from the Deep South.  A weak reinforcing cold front will
meander across the area Sunday afternoon, and whatever moisture
it has to work with will make itself known during the daytime.
Based on the 850mb charts, it looks like we`ll have only a brief
period of weak prefrontal WAA, which will struggle to bring moisture
far enough north to impact GSP`s forecast area.  The CAMs that go
out that far, however, do indeed bring some light showers across
the SC Upstate Sunday afternoon and evening as the front interacts
with what will likely be only shallow moisture.  All that to say,
only the southern zones are under the gun for any measureable QPF,
and with a distinct lack of upper forcing and no prospects of any
convection, this QPF won`t be particularly impressive.  Highs will
top out in the upper 60s, with many sites along the southern and
eastern fringe of the CWA hitting 70.

Sunday night, the front will slide east of the area and postfrontal
CAA will set in.  Model soundings indicate 30kt+ winds at 850mb,
and so the 90th percentile NBM winds actually look like a good
estimate for ridgetop gusts going into Monday.  CAA will last for a
surprisingly long period, well into Monday, with a 3-5mb pressure
gradient persisting across the Appalachians for much of the day.
So, Monday is expected to feature a breezy NW wind...and during the
afternoon, some of those winds may manage to mix down to the surface
even in the Piedmont and Upstate.  All things considered, though,
it looks like advisory-criteria winds aren`t likely.  Afternoon
highs will be significantly lower than Sunday`s, barely scraping
into the 60s (or not at all for the NC Foothills and mountains).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday: Picking up on Monday night, a strong upper
trough continues to dig southward over the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile,
an amplified upper high over the Pacific Northwest begins to
breakdown, while keeping the main upper flow out of the NW across
the region. This will enhance the likelihood for another round of
freezing temperatures across the entire CWA on Monday night. Freeze
products will likely be needed. By Tuesday, the upper trough lifts
toward the NE and exits the southeast, allowing for height rises to
slowly filter in. Moisture begins to return with guidance from the
GFS showing increased PWATs from the west, spilling eastward Tuesday
through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft becomes quasi-zonal by
Wednesday into Thursday as an upper low develops over the Rockies.
Guidance once again hints at another chance for a storm system by
the end of the week, but remains unclear of the timing and
placement. The GFS brings it in earlier than the EURO with an uptick
in QPF response by Friday. Will continue to monitor. As for any fire
weather concerns, with the higher pressure in place, RH values
should dip into the 20 percent range on Tuesday with a slight
increase on Wednesday ahead of the moisture return. As the upper
trough dips through and lifts, a frontal boundary could sweep
through and increase winds across the mountains and Piedmont Monday
night and into Tuesday. Should remain well below any advisory
criteria but could increase fire concerns. High temperatures on
Tuesday are expected to be cool and quickly warm up for the
remainder of the extended period. Once moisture starts to filter
back into the area on Wednesday, overnight temps should also start
increasing to near climo.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect plenty of mid/high level cloudiness
overnight, which really adds a lot of uncertainty to the visibility
forecast. Low level moisture remains plentiful and favorable
for fog, but weak downslope flow as a boundary passes will be
working to dry us out. The Charlotte metro area might be the most
susceptible to fog formation through daybreak. Even if it does
form, the vis will likely be variable. Have included a TEMPO
for an MVFR restriction at KCLT for the hours before daybreak,
more or less as a placeholder. Once the inversion breaks, most
places will have scattered stratocu through the day with wind
coming around from N early to SW in the afternoon. Wind will go
light SW Saturday evening.

Outlook: Another front will cross the area on Sunday but with
less moisture to work with for precip or restrictions. Dry high
pressure builds with gusty winds, especially on Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM


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