Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 220722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
322 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure will control our weather through the weekend. A dry
cold front will move through on Monday that will reinforce high
pressure through the middle of next week.


As of 255 am Saturday: temps have been cooling steadily over the
past few hours under mostly clear skies and min values still appear
on track later this morning. We should see values below freezing
over the higher NC peaks, however any widespread frost potential
should be minimal when considering the brisk winds. Over the past
few hours we`ve seen wind gusts around 40kts over our northern NC mts
and just north of there, so the current wind advisory looks good
thru 16z today. Daytime mixing should support continued gusty winds
this afternoon and into the early evening with values dropping off
after the sun sets and the synoptic scale pressure gradient weakens.
High temps will be the coolest we`ve seen them for some time, with
values in the low to mid 60s over the lower elevations and upper 40s
to low 50s over the mts. Values will fall again early Sunday into the
30s across the mtns with upper 30s to lower 40s over most of the lower
elevations. With winds decoupling overnight, there appears to be good
potential for widespread frost over much of the higher terrain Sunday
morning. There could also be some spotty frost over the foothills and
piedmont if temps get cold enough. Otherwise, we can expect mostly
clear skies and dry conditions.


As of 220 AM Saturday...the weather looks exceedingly quiet for the
first part of next week as we remain under a NW flow aloft. Sunday
looks like an awesome October day with near normal temps, light
wind, and bright sunshine. The only feature of interest will be the
passage of a reinforcing cold front on Monday. The front should move
through dry, but will allow for a brief warmup on Monday that should
see highs climbing back above normal in the afternoon. Temps will
fall off again Monday night but not to the point where frost/freeze
would be a concern.


As of 250 AM EDT Saturday...the middle part of the week looks like a
continuation of dry and fair weather courtesy of upper ridging and a
surface high moving past to the north. Things change toward the end
of the week as the models show the next system moving across the
Plains on Wednesday and then over the Gt Lakes/Midwest on Thursday.
The model trend is toward a more amplified solution with the upper
trof on Thursday, which allows for some tap of Gulf moisture ahead
of the cold front. The GFS wants to close off an upper low over the
Midwest on Thursday and then drop it southward through the end of
the period. This looks overdone similar to what that model was doing
for our current weather earlier this week. Think the ECMWF has the
better handle on keeping the upper trof progressive. Either way, the
trend is toward a better chance of precip Thursday and lingering
into Thursday evening, so precip chances were nudged upward a bit,
perhaps optimistically. Friday was kept dry. Temps were unchanged
for now.


At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected thru 6z TAF period
with only slight changes made to wind speed/direction at each site.
Still expecting NW winds to remain weaker overnight and into the
morning at KCLT, KGSP, KGMU, and KAND with gustier winds at KAVL and
KHKY. Speeds should increase again later in the morning as mixing
increases and mostly clear skies prevail. Speeds in the 10 to 12kt
range with gusts in the 20 to 25kt range are anticipated at each
site with slightly higher values likely again over KAVL. Winds
should decouple again by 00z or so with calmer conditions for the
remainder of the period. I expect mostly clear skies today, with the
exception of few to sct in the 4 to 6kft range over KAVL.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will continue to spread across the
southeast CONUS on Sunday with another reinforcing Canadian High
moving over the region on Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


NC...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ033-049-050-053-065-


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