Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 221807
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
207 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in behind a departing cold front today,
bringing cooler and drier air to the area for the beginning of the
work week. The high will strengthen later in the week, allowing a
return to maximum temperatures that are well above average. Another
weak cold front will approach the Western Carolinas from the
northwest toward the end of the week, though limited moisture will
keep rain chances low and confined to the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM: Large high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley
will move east, being centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tue
aftn. Correspondingly the upper ridge will strengthen over the
Eastern CONUS. Deep subsidence within this pattern will suppress
convection over the CWFA thru the period. As the low level flow
veers to an Atlantic fetch tonight, a shallow moist layer does
develop beneath the inversion, extending from the Coastal Plain
into the upper Savannah River valley. Some model runs generate
QPF over this area at times during the next 24 hrs, particularly
in the early morning, but prog soundings reveal the layer is far
too shallow to permit precip to develop. Dewpoints are mixing
out enough this aftn that fog should be confined only to the most
favored locations, currently looking like the Little Tenn valley
and the northern foothills (Morganton-Lenoir). Temps are expected
to remain near MOS values, a degree or two below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...Mid level ridging will build across the
southeastern states through this period. However,low level thermal
fields will lag by a few days keeping high temperatures in the 80s
on Wednesday outside the mountains, climbing to near 90 on Thursday.

Overall convective coverage will be below climatology. Most activity
will be limited to the normal favorable mountain areas during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...The medium range begins Thursday night
with the southeastern CONUS under the influence of a strong upper
ridge, and max temps well above average. A surface frontal boundary
will approach the southern Appalachians early Saturday...leading to
a small amount of airmass moistening over the weekend. The boundary
appears to largely wash out before it arrives, though, and with the
upper ridge still in place over the southeast, precip chances will
remain well below climo. In fact, the only pops featured through the
beginning of next week will be over the higher terrain, and even
then display limited coverage due to a general lack of moisture. The
upper ridge over the southeast appears to flatten and/or break down
early next week, allowing max and min temperatures to cool to near
or just above climo on Monday. Limited instability and more
substantial moisture also make a return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected thru the period at all TAF
terminals, as dry high pressure remains centered north of the
region. This will keep dewpoint depressions relatively large,
minimizing the potential for fog, though a few outlying areas
still could see some fog and low cigs near daybreak. Some moisture
will remain trapped under the subsidence inversion, so VFR
stratocu will be seen at times. Winds will generally veer
overnight as that high moves across the Appalachians and onto the
Eastern Seaboard; they should favor east-southeast by the end of
the TAF period.

Outlook: The dry air will remain in place across the area resulting
in fair weather through at least mid-week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High  90%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...Wimberley


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