Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 280748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A STRATUS
DECK ACROSS THE SC COASTAL PLAIN AND MIDLANDS. THE STRATUS APPEARED
TO BE EXPANDING TOWARD RDU. THE 0Z NAM12 INDICATED THAT THE STRATUS
DECK SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN EAST THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE SFC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS MAY RUN ALONG A LINE FROM GREENWOOD TO
UNION...NC. OTHERWISE...THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH PATCH MTN
VALLEY FOG. LATER TODAY...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THE DIURNAL
MIXING DEVELOPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CIRRUS LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
MON/S VALUES...SEE CLIMO SECTION FOR RECORDS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS AGREE THAT A BAND OF PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS
WILL REACH THE NC/TN LINE BETWEEN 9-12Z. I WILL INCREASE LATE NIGHT
POPS TO HIGH CHC TO LIKELY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. BY SUNRISE...AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH 0.10 TO 0.40 POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN NC. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS TO U50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHWRS CROSSING THE CWFA FROM
NW TO SE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IF ANYTHING...THEY/VE
TRENDED A BIT FASTER AND DRIER WITH THE FRONT...AS MOISTURE
STRUGGLES TO CROSS THE MTNS. I HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE TN
BORDER (LIKELY) DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN A CHC POP FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST FROM MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. POPS CUT OFF RAPIDLY
FROM NW TO SE LATE AFTN THRU THE EVENING HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT. AS FOR THUNDER...THE NAM AND GFS STILL SHOW A LITTLE SBCAPE
ACRS THE GA AND SC PIEDMONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC THUNDER
MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF I-85. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG. MAX
TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE FROPA. BASED ON THE FASTER
TIMING...I KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEG OR TWO ALONG THE SE
FRINGE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MTNS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL I-85 AND SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK BUT DRY SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS UPPER TROF LINGERS ACRS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOUT 5 DEG
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING A VERY ENERGETIC
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE REGION INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...CARVING OUT A DEEP TROF ACRS THE EASTERN STATES
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN MERGE WITH AN ATLANTIC LOW ACRS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECWMF HAVE A BRIEF SHOT OF
NW FLOW MOISTURE AS THE CLIPPER TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -2
TO -6C ACRS THE CWFA BY 18Z SATURDAY. THIS SHUD RESULT IN BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACRS THE MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY
AFTN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLD TO SCATTER RA/SN SHOWERS. ANY SNOW
ACCUM SHUD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL. AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ABOVE 3500
FT...WHICH IS ALSO THE END OF OUR FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE FALL IN
THE MTNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE
30S...WITH FROSTY TEMPS...BUT NOT GOOD FROST CONDITIONS
(WIND/MIXING AND LOW DEWPTS).

FRIDAY/S HIGHS LOOK SIMILAR TO THURSDAY (ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
NORMAL)...BUT MUCH COOLER FOR SATURDAY (ABOUT 10-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL).

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...EVEN THO THE SFC HIGH
IS STILL BUILDING IN...AND CAA MAY KEEP THINGS MIXED. THE LATEST WPC
FCST WAS BLENDED IN...AND RESULTS IN SOLID FREEZE FOR THE MTNS...AND
29-32 DEG FOR THE NC PIEDMONT. THE UPSTATE AND NE GA LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID-UPR 30S. AGAIN...GOOD FROST TEMPS...BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW
MUCH FROST WILL FORM WITH DEWPTS DROPPING INTO THE LWR-MID 20S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION...WITH DRY WX AND GRADUAL REBOUNDING IN TEMPS...BUT STILL
WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS OF 155 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED
A STRATUS DECK EXPANDING ACROSS THE SC COASTAL PLAIN AND MIDLANDS.
THE 0Z NAM12 INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
EAST THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SFC CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATES THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS MAY
RUN ALONG A LINE FROM GREENWOOD TO UNION...NC. I WILL INDICATE THAT
CLT WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL MID DAY...THEN WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE SSW AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 8 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT...MODELS KEEP QPF TO THE WEST THROUGH 12Z WEDS.

ELSEWHERE...ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO CLT.
KAVL MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
TEMPO FROM 9-13Z. DAYLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIR WITH SSW
WINDS. TONIGHT...A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. ISO SHRAS MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE KAVL TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING
SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY OCT 28...
GSP  85      1991
CLT  87      1940
AVL  81      1940

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED
CLIMATE...



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