189
FXUS63 KICT 071141
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
641 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for elevated storms Wednesday morning across southeast
Kansas, some of them could become strong or severe

- Dry and quiet weather to prevail for Thursday thru the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Quiet weather conditions will prevail today with westerly winds and
drier air overspreading the region. Meanwhile current satellite
water vapor imagery shows a deep upper level low pressure system
continuing to spin over the Dakotas. Models show an embedded short
wave rotating around the southern periphery of this low pressure
system across Nebraska and Kansas for late tonight heading into
Wednesday. This upper short wave induces a strengthening low level
jet and rapid moisture transport over eastern Kansas into a decent
700mb baroclinic zone late tonight/Wednesday morning. This
signal combined with steep mid-level lapse rates,decent elevated
CAPE, and favorable 1-6km shear could spark of severe elevated
convection around daybreak Wednesday morning over far southeast
Kansas or locations just to the northeast in western Missouri
which is supported by increasing HREF model probability of 4hr
max Refl paintball. This upper wave will push another frontal
boundary southward across the area on Wednesday where storms
will re-develop ahead of this front which looks to affect areas
mainly east of southeast Kansas.

Dry and quiet weather conditions look to prevail for Thursday into
the weekend as surface high pressure builds over the region. Long
range models are hinting at next chance of storms possibly affecting
the region on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Patchy fog was impacting parts of the Flint Hills and southeast
Kansas this morning but should mix out by 14Z or sooner. VFR
will prevail thereafter with light and variable winds becoming
breezy and westerly. Gusts to around 35 mph will be common in
central Kansas this afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening
while backing to an east or southeast direction. The storm
system over the Northern Plains will pivot southeastward driving
another frontal boundary into central KS this evening where an
isolated shower may develop. Widely scattered showers and storms
may also develop toward dawn on Wed over portions of the Flint
Hills and southeast KS but confidence is too low to mention in
TAFs at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM