Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KIND 221812

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
212 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.


Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry conditions will continue across central Indiana into early next
week, then a low pressure system will bring rain chances to the area
mid week. After a warm day Sunday, seasonable temperatures can be


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Cumulus field will continue to shift east of the area this afternoon
as cold air aloft gets pushed east. Most of the mid clouds
associated with the warm advection aloft look to remain north of the

Maybe some patches of mid or high cloud move across tonight as warm
advection continues, but overall a mostly clear night is in store.

Winds will stay up tonight as warm advection commences at the
surface. Thus expect warmer lows tonight, similar to guidance.


.SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Strong warm advection on Sunday (with 850mb winds near 50kt) will
bring in above normal temperatures. Atmosphere will be quite dry
though, so do not much sky cover. Mixing will allow surface winds to
gusts to around 25 mph.

A cold front will move through Sunday night, but the lack of
moisture will prohibit any rain. High pressure then returns for the
remainder of the short term, keeping things dry.

Although the coolest air will remain northeast of the area, enough
cool air will move in for Monday and Tuesday to keep temperatures
near or slightly below average.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...

Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

ECMWF suggests a departing ridging exiting the area on Tuesday
night and Wednesday. A warm front associated with low pressure
over the plains states is then expected to push toward Central
Indiana On Wednesday before passing across the state on Wednesday
night. As this feature passes...pops will need to be included as a
strong trough passes Mississippi Valley.

The upper trough is expected to pass through Indiana On Thursday
along with a low pressure system passing to the north of Indiana.
This will allow a cold front to push across the state on thursday
and Thursday...and again...PoPs will need to be included.

Dry weather is then expected to return by Friday and Saturday as
ridging and high pressure over the Central Plains builds eastward
across the Ohio valley.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 221800z TAFS/...

Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR Conditions are expected this period.

Models suggest ridging and high pressure in place across the TAF
Sites through this period. Forecast soundings show a dry column
with unreachable convective temperatures. Thus only will expect
some passing mid and high clouds within the flow aloft. Dew point
depressions overnight appear to remain well above 3-4F. Thus no




AVIATION...JP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.