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000
FXUS63 KIND 071712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1212 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ANY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT.

NEXT WEEK WILL START OF MILD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN...A SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

STILL DEALING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN SOME SPOTS AS OF
1430Z...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
IS ERODED AND LOW LEVEL MIXING COMMENCES. TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY AND
ALREADY WELL INTO THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES.

FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IS ONCE AGAIN ON
TEMPS...AND WILL BE BUMPING THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THINKING SUPPORTED BY RAP SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW
MIXING LEVELS TO AROUND 925-950MB DURING PEAK HEATING. PARCELS
BROUGHT DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE MIXING LEVEL GENERATING MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

IN A NUTSHELL...EXPECT A WONDERFUL REST OF THE DAY. ENJOY IT...
HOOSIERS DESERVE A DAY LIKE THIS AFTER WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE
LAST FEW MONTHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TRAILING
UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SEEN BEST IN 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS...SHOULD LAST LESS THAN 10 HOURS. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ONLY SMALL TO AT TIMES NO QPF. THIS ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING
WITH CHANCE POPS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
ANY RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BEFORE IT SHOULD BE OVER WITH AFTER 06Z. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AROUND AND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...PREFER TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW MOS. BLEND LOOKS OK
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND WITH MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
DRY COLUMN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY FAR FROM ALLBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES LOOK LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM EXITS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE LOW TRACK AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12-14 HOURS OF THE PERIOD LIKELY. MVFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE HAS CLEARED AND NOW A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY
IS IN PROGRESS AT ALL SITES WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
UNRESTRICTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN AN
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOWING MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG/HAZE/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

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