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000
FXUS63 KIND 050439
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1139 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION COULD OCCUR WITHIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VERY COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 929 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM CAROLINAS INTO ALABAMA AND SW TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TO POINTS NORTHEAST. NATIONAL RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW PRECIP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD...PUSHING THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. FURTHERMORE THE DRY AND COLD SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW GRADUAL
DRYING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW GOOD
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING TOWARD 12Z. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST BY 12Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONGOING TEMPS LOOK OK
GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TWEAKS...ESPECIALLY ON MIN TEMPS WITH A STILL FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES
ARE IN PLAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED
ON TEN OTHER OCCASIONS OF RECORD AT INDIANAPOLIS IN MARCH...AND NOT
SINCE 9 MARCH 1984.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE
REGIONAL SOFTWARE IS ACCEPTED.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE THE INITIALIZATION WILL VERIFY.

ALSO...WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR DETERMINISTIC FIELDS...THEIR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. IN
A SENSE IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH VERIFIES BETTER...WE CAN EXPECT THE
SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME CIRRUS AND WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 KTS POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AT KLAF. INCLUDED SOME BKN MVFR STRATOCU AT ALL SITES
BUT KLAF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
BIT OF LIFT FROM AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND A LITTLE CIRRUS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ061>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CP

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