Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281451
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1050 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THE FORMER
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS DRIFTS OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A TAD ON THE
WARM SIDE WHILE THE NAM MOS LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT WITH AN UPDATED
BLEND OF MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGHS WHICH APPEARS RIGHT ON
TRACK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS MORNING. HIGHS LOW 80S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WILL KEEP TONIGHT/S FORECAST DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ON...ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. PROGGED INSTABILITY
THIS WEEKEND NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT PROBABLY ADEQUATE FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART...SO NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US A  CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST MONDAY.
WILL MENTION 20 PERCENT POPS SOUTHEAST MONDAY.  OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE CANADIAN MODEL IS AN OUTLIER  AS IT ACCELERATES THE REMAINS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER NEXT WEEK.  WHILE
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. FAVOR
THE EURO...GFS SCENARIO WHICH SHOULD KEEP EVERYTHING DRY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S  MONDAY AND 85 TO 90 REST OF THE
LONG TERM...WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A FEW CU MID DAY ON. SCATTERED MID
CLOUDS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TODAY WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 7 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP



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