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000
FXUS63 KIND 271659
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1259 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

High pressure will provide a dry day today, then an upper level low
will move into the area and loiter into the weekend. This will keep
chances for rain across the area through the first half of the
weekend. Temperatures will be seasonable for much of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon/...
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Wind profilers and this morning`s upper air indicates about 25-30 kts
of flow in the 925mb-850mb layer, along with the potential for good
mixing this afternoon. Will bump up the wind gusts for this afternoon
a bit more.

Previous discussion follows.

High pressure will remain in control of the weather across central
Indiana today. This will result in plentiful sunshine. This sunshine
should boost temperatures back into the 70s, near the MAV MOS
guidance.

Some stronger winds will mix down and allow wind gusts near 30 mph
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday night/
Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Focus is on chances for rain through the period. Models are close
enough that a blend was used for most parameters.

An upper low will sink south into the area tonight and then meander
around the lower Ohio Valley through the short term. A surface low
will remain in the vicinity as well.

The result will be slight chance to change category PoPs most areas
through the short term. The highest PoPs look to be Wednesday as the
core of the cold air aloft moves into the area.

Cannot rule out some thunder at times through the period, but for
now it appears the coverage would be too low to mention in the
forecast.

For temperatures, went closer to the cooler MOS for Wednesday given
expected cloud cover and rain showers. Otherwise generally stayed
with a blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday Night/...

Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

The GFS and Euro continue to bring a low pressure system into the
Ohio Valley early in the extended period. As a result, will
continue with rain chances from Friday through Saturday per
latest initialization. Latest model runs have come into better
agreement in regard to the track of the aforementioned system with
it meandering around Indiana and Ohio before finally moving into
lower Michigan on Saturday night. After that, dry conditions will
prevail through the remainder of the extended period as a ridge of
high pressure strengthens over the region. High temperatures will
start out below normal on Friday with readings only in the upper
60s/low 70s, but they will increase slightly into the mid to upper
70s by Monday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will generally be in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 271800z tafs/...

Issued at 1254 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR after 10z-12z
Wed.

Clear skies are expected to remain in place across the state late
this afternoon and evening as the upper low to the north begins to
approach the area.

Upper low over the Great lakes is expected to sink south across
the ohio valley...sending a series of short waves spinning around
the low across the taf sites late in the period. Forecast
soundings show steep lapse rates with good saturation...thus will
expect sct light rain showers and mvfr CIGS in the area on
Wednesday as the Low lingers across the state. Isolated TSRA will
be possible...but confidence is too low for specific timing.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP