Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 150520
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1220 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Quiet weather can be expected through Saturday night as the area
remains on the fringe of surface high pressure. A compact upper
level wave will move through the area on Sunday, bringing mainly
rain showers to the area. Additional weak disturbances early in
the week may bring precipitation chances to the area as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Early This Morning/...

Issued at 1217 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

No significant changes. Patches of lower and middle clouds as well
as some clear areas under light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

The vast majority of the short term will remain dry. A shortwave
will pass through the Great Lakes on Friday, but a lack of
significant moisture and a surface reflection positioned well
north of the area will keep precipitation out of the area. Expect
mainly some cloud cover as a result of the wave.

The next chance for precipitation will come Sunday as a compact
upper level wave moves through the area. While temperatures will
be borderline early Sunday, evaporational cooling may allow
precipitation to initially begin as snow or a rain/snow mix, but
no accumulation is expected. Most precipitation falling Sunday
will fall as rain.

Consensus temperatures generally appeared reasonable throughout,
although the diurnal ranges have been too narrow as of late,
particularly with max temps in the blend being too cool. Made
minor adjustments as a result.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 215 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

ECMWF shows an active period continuing on Sunday Night through
Tuesday Morning...with dry weather returning for the middle of
next week.

ECMWF shows a broad upper trough over the upper midwest sagging
southward across Indiana on Sunday night into Monday. THis trough
pattern is expected to persist unto Tuesday...allowing a few weak
upper level disturbances pass within the flow. Meanwhile in the
lower levels...a weak low pressure system will push through the
Great Lakes on Sunday Night before broad cyclonic flow remains in
place. Thus chances for precip during this period appear
reasonable from forecast builder.

Dry Weather should return by Tuesday afternoon through Thursday as
High pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 150600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1100 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

An upper wave and surface trough will pivot east across the
terminals this morning. With limited moisture, should only see an
increase stratocu in the wake of the surface trough that is expected
to pass through 12z-15z. Would not rule out brief MVFR conditions in
the wake of the front, otherwise, good confidence in mostly VFR
conditions through the TAF period.

Very light to calm winds overnight will become westerly less than 10
knots as the front moves through and increase to 10 to 15 knots with
gusts to near 25 knots after 16z. Finally, winds will drop off to
less than 10 knots after 23z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...MK



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