Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 071020
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
520 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AFTER A MILD AND DRY DAY TODAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SNOW AND COLDER CONDITIONS. BY MID
WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...BUT MOST SNOW CHANCES
WILL HAVE ENDED. A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THOUGH AS
GULF IS CUT OFF...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WEST LATE TODAY. MODELS ARE DRYING OUT AS WELL WHICH ADDS
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.

WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...WENT NEAR THE WARMER
MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND UNLESS NOTED BELOW.

BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES THIS EVENING FOR THE FRONT...BUT BY
THEN IT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. WENT LOW CHANCE
POPS SOUTHEAST TO DRY FAR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...POPS WILL LOWER EAST AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...BUT POPS
WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
AND SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN. AS TEMPERATURES COOL
OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. LITTLE QPF
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THOUGH.

ON MONDAY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN...WITH A NICE GRADIENT
SEEN IN 850MB TEMPERATURES MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS INCREASING DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. BUMPED UP MODEL POPS
WENT WENT LIKELY ALL AREAS.

SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO HAVE IMPACT ON TRAVEL DURING MONDAY...BUT INDY
AREA MAY GET LUCKY AND SEE THE MAIN IMPACTS MOVE IN AFTER RUSH HOUR.
WILL NOT GET CUTE THOUGH WHEN MENTIONING IMPACT TIMING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SINCE TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA AND WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST. WENT LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE AREA. WENT HIGHER THAN MODEL POPS SINCE THE COLDER AIR
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT LINGERING MOISTURE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FAR ENOUGH TO
GO CHANCE POPS OR LOWER.

THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE LOW QPF WITH NO STRONG FETCH OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
IN...TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES LOOK
FEASIBLE.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACK PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
AFTER THAT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ALLOWING DRY
AND CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TO DOMINATE.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SNOW PACK AND SOME CLEARING. COULD SEE BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN DURING THE EVENING AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THEN...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AFTER 16Z WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY MORE. AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME WEST IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT AND DROP
OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK


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