Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191019
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
619 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM DRY DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL MAKE FOR A SPECTACULAR WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CAROLINAS HAS MADE IT INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY THIN HOWEVER AND ALREADY ARE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST. A COOL MORNING FOR MAY AS TEMPS RANGED FROM THE 40S IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH.

AS MENTIONED...THE CIRRUS IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING AND SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS MAKING
FOR AN IDEAL SPRING DAY. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15MPH WILL DEVELOP BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO QUEBEC.

TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS TODAY. COMBINATION OF
DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS. RECENT
TEMP TRENDS WOULD ARGUE FOR GOING WARMER AS WELL. GENERALLY A FEW
DEGREES OVER GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND
CONSEQUENTLY RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE STAGNANT FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIAL
MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. ULTIMATELY...THIS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH RISING TEMPS SUNDAY AS
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BE FORCED EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY
AS AN UPPER WAVE TRACKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ALOFT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT
TRACKS INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN
BECOMING LIKELY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY DEPENDENT ON LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 35KT 850MB JET ALONG WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT. FRONT
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

TEMPS...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE REGARDING HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
GENERALLY RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BOTH DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A DECENT RANGE IN TEMPS FROM AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 30S IN OUR TYPICAL COOL SPOTS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
INDY METRO AND LOWER WABASH VALLEY. LOWS WILL WARM SUNDAY/MONDAY
NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE A QUIET AND UNEVENTFUL AS UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSS THE AREA. A QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH A DAY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD IN
THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION HANDLED MOST VARIABLES RELATIVELY WELL AND
FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEASTERLY...A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
EARLY AND MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...10KT OR LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

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