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000
FXUS63 KIND 070815
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ANY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT.

NEXT WEEK WILL START OF MILD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN...A SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS MODELS AGREE THAT A
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD ONLY SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WEAK FRONT SYSTEM...THAT MODELS HAVE AROUND OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
BY 12Z SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MAY NEED TO ADD MENTION OF FOG THROUGH
MID MORNING IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

SO...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN MOS AND THUS
PREFER TO STICK WITH THIS PHILOSOPHY AND GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SIMILAR MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND ALSO LEAN TO WARMER THAN MOS
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TRAILING
UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SEEN BEST IN 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS...SHOULD LAST LESS THAN 10 HOURS. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ONLY SMALL TO AT TIMES NO QPF. THIS ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING
WITH CHANCE POPS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
ANY RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BEFORE IT SHOULD BE OVER WITH AFTER 06Z. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AROUND AND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...PREFER TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW MOS. BLEND LOOKS OK
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND WITH MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
DRY COLUMN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY FAR FROM ALLBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES LOOK LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM EXITS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE LOW TRACK AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 070900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

TWEAKING CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY FOR UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE KIND AND KLAF HAVE JUST DROPPED TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE THIS DEVELOP WITHIN
A COUPLE HOURS AT KBMG AND LATER AT KHUF. WHILE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR...SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 070900Z-071500Z.
GIVEN VSBYS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED FASTER THAN GUIDANCE PREDICTED WILL
GO AHEAD AND TEMPO IN A FEW HOURS OF IFR DURING THIS WINDOW.

NO CEILING OR WIND ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH 071800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

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