Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 012023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DECREASED WINDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS AND SWITCHED DIRECTION TO 250
DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK


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