Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 301003
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
603 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...

The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

A broad area of low pressure remains in place across the area.
This will again lead to scattered thunderstorm development across
the region today. High pressure will begin to nudge into the area
late tonight into Sunday, which will lower thunderstorm chances a
bit.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Another day much like the last several is expected across the area
today, with scattered thunderstorm development occurring
particularly in the afternoon near peak heating. Have trended
grids this way. Hydro concerns will again be the main threat, as
storms have been highly precipitation efficient in recent days and
fairly slow moving.

Consensus temperatures appeared slightly too cool based on
persistence and low level thermal progs. Bumped them up a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Models depict weak high pressure nosing into the area late tonight
through the remainder of the weekend, which will significantly
lower but perhaps not completely eliminate thunderstorm chances
from central Indiana. Will carry slight chances across the east
Sunday and across the southwest Monday and west Monday night per
model consensus.

Consensus temperatures again appeared a bit too cool on maxes per
low level thermal progs. Min temps were reasonable and required
only minor adjustments.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through next Friday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Operational models and ensembles in decent agreement that upper
waves will drop southeast over the area Tuesday into Wednesday as a
warm front gradually lifts northeast over the Wabash Valley and the
rest of central Indiana late Wednesday and Wednesday night. These
features will interact with a warm and unstable airmass and allow
for scattered thunderstorms with the best chances Tuesday night.
After that, the upper dome of high pressure over the middle of the
nation will build northeast over the Ohio Valley and lower Great
Lakes and result in warmer temperatures and only small thunderstorm
chances Wednesday night through Thursday night. Finally, an upper
Canadian low will force a cold front to drop southeast over the area
early next weekend. This will bring another decent shot of
thunderstorms in starting Friday. Regional blend looks to have a
good handle on temperature trends as well as pops. Could see 90
degrees again in the south by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 30/1200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 603 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

The SREF and no as much the GFS LAMP suggest the low clouds and fog
could continue for an hour or two after issuance time. Then,
moderate confidence that mostly VFR conditions will be featured the
rest of the day and evening save some brief poor flying conditions
in scattered diurnal thunderstorms. More fog and low stratus is a
good possibility overnight as model soundings show plenty of
lingering low level moisture.

Winds will become west 6 knots or less this morning and afternoon
and very light to calm once again tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK



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