Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 011052
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOL WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF INDIANA...WARMER AIR WILL RETURN ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
INDIANA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG...COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...RESULTING IN COLD...GUSTY NORTH WINDS. RADAR WAS SHOWING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM HAS
MOVED EAST OF INDIANA. ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER
LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO EASTERN TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA HAD FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 30S.

GFS AND NAM BOTH AGREE THAT COLD AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES MOVES EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK
UNATTAINABLE AND 850MB SHOWS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z...BEFORE THE DOME OF COLD AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST TODAY AS A
FEW CLOUDS MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM TO
THE EAST QUICKLY MOVES OUT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER
THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE COLD 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS. DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY EVENING AS THE VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM
AND ONLY A FEW RIDGING RIDING PASSING CI WILL BE EXPECTED FROM TIME
TO TIME.

THE DOME OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED ALLOWING IDEAL RADITAIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. WILL STICK CLOSE THE THE MAVMOS/METMOS TEMPS WHICH
APPEAR TO HANDLE THE SITUATION WELL. AS IT IS NOVEMBER...A FREEZE
WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AS THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.

STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE 850MB
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SURFACE...STILL GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50S. THUS WILL
USE A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE CONTINUING.
SOME MIXING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SURGE OF WARM AIR
IS SEEN ARRIVING IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WILL TREND LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS. THE
SAME TREND CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. 850MB TEMPS ON MONDAY RISE TOWARD
10C...AGAIN WITH GOOD MIXING AND PLENTY OF SUN. WILL AGAIN TREND
HIGHS ON MONDAY AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM THEN DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS SHOW
ARRIVAL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WHILE THE NAM IS SLOWER. NONETHELESS
WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHC POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO PROXIMITY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE
EXPECTED ADVANCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY NEXT
THURSDAY...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UPPER TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES BY. A FEW ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT DON/T SEE ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR NEXT
THURSDAY YET. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

AREAS OF VFR CEILINGS...040-050...EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
TAF SITES...KIND/KBMG...THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS TODAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST DRY ADVECTION TODAY...SO THINK THESE CEILINGS WILL
SCATTER OUT WITH TIME.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT TODAY...SO EXPECTING SURFACE
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM 340-010 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

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