Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190128
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM
DRY. LACK OF RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS IT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WARM WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PER
REGIONAL BLEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

CLOUD SHIELD OVER INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGES SHOWING SOME HIGH CI OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY THAT ARE
UNATTAINABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....KOCH
AVIATION...JP

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