654
FXUS63 KIND 072312
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
712 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms possible across far SE central Indiana
  through early evening

- Following a mainly dry day Tuesday daily shower/t-storm chances
  will persist through the week amid humid and very warm conditions

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A cold front is working its way across central Indiana, bringing
cooler temperatures across the area and showers and thunderstorms
over the south.

As of mid-afternoon, cloud coverage has allowed temperatures to stay
in the 70s thus far, but the clearer skies off to the NW are
expected to make their way in. Temperatures should increase into the
low to mid 80s later today before sunset arrives.

The front itself and associated showers are expected to exit later
today as well, likely by early evening, while weak high pressure
takes it`s place. This will bring in a slightly drier airmass and in
addition to the suppression in place with the high, expect quiet
weather tonight through at least midday Tuesday. Going into Tuesday
afternoon, can`t rule out the chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms as another short wave pushes in. Confidence is low for
tomorrow`s precip chances as models vary on more mesoscale
solutions, but best chances look to be after the short term period.

Highs tomorrow should be slightly higher than today, with mid to
upper 80s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Little change is shown in the models for the upcoming week. Models
still suggest a somewhat zonal upper flow across the northern half
of the United States through on Tuesday night through Monday.
Several short waves are suggested to pass through that flow,
providing forcing across Central Indiana.

The first short wave looks to arrive on Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Lower and mid level moisture looks sufficient for showers
and thunderstorms and dewpoints will return to the middle and upper
60s. This wave will exit by late Wednesday morning, leaving lee side
subsidence building across Indiana by Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday as an upper ridge axis builds across the upper midwest.
Thus expect best chances here to be from Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

The next best wave of forcing looks to arrive on late Thursday night
through Saturday. A deeper upper trough is suggested to push into
the upper midwest, allowing forcing dynamics to be ejected east to
Indiana on Friday and then again on Saturday night into Sunday as
mainly cyclonic flow remains in place aloft. This period again will
require pops given the expected forcing and available moisture.

Zonal flow is shown to return on Monday with little suggested in the
way of forcing. Meanwhile at the surface, all through the period, a
weak, poorly defined surface trough is suggested to be in place
across Indiana and Ohio. Moisture will remain available each day as
dew points at least in the 60s will lingering across Central Indiana
due to weak lower level flow and no real changes in the air mass.

Thus, best chances for rain will be when the previously mentioned
forcing is passing, but lesser chances for daily diurnal showers or
storms will persist due to weak low pressure at the surface and
ample lower level moisture. Temperatures will be at or slightly
above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 712 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Impacts:

- Widespread MVFR conditions with occasional IFR late tonight into
  Tuesday morning

Discussion:

With clearing skies, north/northwesterly winds expected to weaken
and perhaps go calm in spots, wet antecedent soils, and dewpoints
remaining largely in the 60s even in the wake of a frontal passage,
fog is expected to develop overnight. Guidance suggests widespread
MVFR with some periods of IFR, and have taken this approach at all
sites, with 3-4SM prevailing and TEMPO 1-2SM, along with a BCFG
mention at all sites, as sites with lightest winds could easily drop
into LIFR or worse at least briefly.

Once fog mixes out, VFR conditions are expected with winds below
10KT out of the south/southwest on Tuesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Nield