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000
FXUS63 KIND 101034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
534 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXIT
OUR REGION THIS MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY BRINGING
CHANCES OF SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
OCCURRING AROUND SATURDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO RULE IN BETWEEN WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

SNOW CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR REGION WILL
END RAPIDLY THIS MORNING.  MAY MENTION LOW CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WILL
BE THE RULE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS
EASTWARD.

TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTH PER NEW
MODEL DATA.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM TO MATCH UP WELL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER TONIGHT.  WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH WEDNESDAYS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
ELSEWHERE.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION.  MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND -15 CELSIUS AND GIVEN SNOW PACK MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
COLDER FOR THURSDAY AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT. CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS THERE IS MORE SNOW THERE.  WILL GO WITH
LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 6 ABOVE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S THURSDAY.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AND SOME WARM
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.  ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS SEEM REASONABLE MOST AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED STAYED
CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN ITS APPROACH FRIDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THIS FEATURE...SO SLOWED POPS UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH.

THUS WENT HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS.
SOME QUESTION ON PATH OF SURFACE LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH WARM AIR
WILL GET. THEREFORE WENT SNOW NORTH 2/3 AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTH 1/3 OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IF LOW GOES FARTHER NORTH PRECIPITATION MAY TURN TO JUST RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
AS WELL DEPENDING ON TRACK.

SOME COLD ADVECTION AND/OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY SO WENT LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM COULD MOVE IN FOR
MONDAY...BUT AT THE MOMENT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO MENTION ANY
POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR OR ABOVE 25KT
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE KBMG AREA BY ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUD THIS MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM.

SOME FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND
ADDITIONAL MID CLOUD WILL MOVE IN WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDS. EXPECT GUSTS TO START
AROUND 15-16Z AND INCREASE BY 18Z TO AROUND 25KT. GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND 23Z. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50

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