Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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513
FXUS63 KIND 280719
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Isolated convection formed along an approaching cold front in
northeast Indiana earlier this evening. This convection just missed
the forecast area and is now in western Ohio. Doesn`t look like any
additional convection is developing with the front at the moment, and
the loss of heating will help stop anything from developing later.
Thus will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Otherwise just tweaked sky grids to reflect the clouds from the
isolated convection and some high clouds south. Remainder of
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion follows...

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that a cold front will drop
southeast across central Indiana on Friday. The front will then
stall out over the Tennessee Valley the remainder of the weekend as
high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes. However, the models
are hinting that one or more upper disturbances will be moving in
from the Plains and allow the front to lift back to the northeast
early next week. The Regional blend suggests thunderstorm chances
over all of central Indiana Friday and dry north and small pops
south the remainder of the weekend. Then, the blend brings back pops
to all of the area by Monday. The blend also starts off with
slightly below normal temperatures becoming normal or slightly above
by next Monday. This all looks reasonable based on good model
agreement with the expected synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Dewpoints still rather high over southern Indiana at this time, so expecting
areas of MVFR visibility restrictions in light fog in the KHUF/KBMG areas for
a few hours either side of sunrise. Light wind and some lower dewpoints
moving in from the north should keep restrictions above IFR for the most
part.

Otherwise, some increase in cloud cover 040-050 expected in the KLAF area
towards sunrise. Low level cold advection looks rather strong on Tuesday, so
VFR ceilings around 040 should develop around the midday hours.

Light surface winds overnight will become 320-350 degrees after sunrise
Tuesday with occasional surface gusts 18-20 kts by 281800Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS



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