Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 211419

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1019 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

The NEAR TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

A cold front will move through the area today and clear chances for
rain and thunderstorms out of the area from west to east during the
morning. High pressure will build over the area and bring dry
conditions tonight through Monday. Monday night the next low
pressure system will approach and bring more chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the area lasting through Thursday.
Cooler temperatures can be expected much of the week as well.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 1008 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Forecast adjusted for a brief period of showers for everyone
within the east-moving line on radar. These should exit our area
between 12pm and 1pm and here in Indy before 11am. Have thus
carried a narrow likely pop dropping to zero behind this rain line.

Also adjusted cloud clearing slightly as current west edge at
Illinois-Indiana state line progresses across state through late
morning and afternoon.

brief period of gustiness with showers lays down to steady 10mph
west wind after showers on front pass by.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...

Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

High pressure will move across central Indiana tonight through
Monday keeping the weather dry. With clearing skies and cold
advection lows tonight will drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s,
and Monday`s highs should top out in the low 70s. Another low
pressure system will approach Monday night that will bring chances
for precipitation back over the area, but chances remain fairly low
especially across the eastern counties until Tuesday afternoon.
Could see some thunderstorms then with a little instability creeping
back up into the area. Chances for showers continue Tuesday night as
an upper low sets up over the Great Lakes and rotates little waves
through the upper trough.


.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Wednesday will be cool and wet with low pressure over Ohio and a
closed upper low over Indiana.  These low pressure systems will move
on to the east as high pressure moves east across the southern U.S.
Thursday and early Friday.  Models indicate dry weather will be the
rule late Thursday through early Friday.

After that there is more uncertainty with timing between the models.
Low pressure will move into the plains Friday and towards the upper
midwest and lower great lakes by Saturday.  The canadian model
develops a warm front across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
valleys and bring a strong upper disturbance towards Indiana late
Friday...while the Euro keeps the precip farther west Friday and
keeping Indiana mostly dry until Friday night.  Will go with a blend
for now and went with low rain chances over southwest sections late
Friday...slightly lower than Superblend POPS.

Went with low chance POPS Friday night and Saturday as a warm front
lifts north across our region.

Highs will be in the middle 60s Wednesday warming to the upper 70s
to around 80 by Saturday.  Lows will be in the upper 40s to near 50
Wednesday night warming to 55 to 60 by Friday night.  Stayed close
to superblend temperatures through Friday and went slightly warmer
than MOS blend some areas Saturday as warm advection increases
across the region.


.AVIATION /Update to 211200z TAFs/...

Issued at 1008 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

All terminal sites have seen the end of rain as the narrow line of
showers moves to eastern Indiana. This shower line is right on the
cold front with abrupt wind shift from south to west occurring
with shower passage.

MVFR decks ahead of and within shower line improve to around 3000
feet after shower passage. Cloud clearing line at Illinois-
Indiana state line will cross KHUF and KLAF around 15z and
KIND/KBMG between 16z-17z. Daytime sun will fire up cumulus during
this afternoon.




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