Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 211859
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

High pressure over the Dakotas will give way to a developing storm
system over the southern High Plains in the next 12-24 hours.
mid/upper level jet steam is extending south/southeast over the
Rockies and will extend eastward across the southern Plains/lower
MS Valley tonight. That will develop a positively tilted trough
over the lower MS Valley and associated surface low along the
quasistationary front that extends east/northeast across southern
and east central KY. Low pressure will move along this frontal
boundary over the next 24-36 hours and spread rain/rainshowers
across mainly the southern half of IN as early as tonight and
likely Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Timing of rainshowers tonight is a bit challenging as satellite
imagery shows a few convective boundaries has pushed the frontal
boundary southward along the TN/MS/AL border area. But, what
raises the confidence is that the mid/upper level low that will be
developing over the lower MS Valley will develop a surface low
along/just north of the boundary. System will have sufficient
dynamics with it to provide widespread rainshowers north of the
boundary into southern sections of IN later this evening and
gradually spread northward by Saturday morning. Given the clouds
that wil moving over the area, have also brought lows up a few
degrees trending towards the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...

Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Looks like a period of rainshowers coming to most of central and
southern IN on Saturday. As the mid/upper low develops over the TN
Valley region and swings from a positively tilted system to more
neutral, then will deepen the low at the surface and increase the
coverage of rainshowers through the area. It may also lead to
occasional moderate rainshowers over the southern third of the
area. Currently, projections are just under 1.00 inch across the
southern tier, but would not be surprised to see isolated areas of
maybe up to 1.50 inches on Saturday. Rainshowers will move out of
the area Saturday evening/night with clearing skies allowing
temperatures to fall into the low/mid 40s by Sunday morning.

Sunday will be the start of a period of nice days as temperatures
get back into the mid 60s over the entire area and into the low
70s on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Ensembles suggest a short wave trough will lift through the western
Great Lakes around the middle of next week. Will keep some PoPs
going from Tuesday night through Thursday to cover this feature.

Otherwise, ensembles indicate upper pattern may become highly
amplified by late next week, with a deep long wave trough centered
over the Rockies and high Plains, and a sharp upper ridge along the
East Coast. Depending on the eventual strength and position of the
upper ridge, the midweek frontal system may stall out or dissipate
over the area by next Friday. Will keep some PoPs in the forecast on
Friday for now, but if upper ridge starts to come in stronger on
later model runs, it may cutoff precipitation potential late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 21/18Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1244 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

High pressure over the Dakotas extends southeast into IN for this
afternoon. Clouds are spreading east/northeast embedded in the
mid/upper level flow from OK into the region. A mid/upper level
trough over W TX will move east/northeast over the next 24 hours
and is expected to spread light rain over at least the southern
third of IN, including KBMG, KHUF, and possibly KIND during the
morning hours Saturday. Thus, expect mostly VFR through this
afternoon with an ocasional MVFR south, becoming MVFR with
occasional IFR Saturday morning across the southern half of IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DWM
NEAR TERM...DWM
SHORT TERM...DWM
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...DWM



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