Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 271808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
208 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low pressure over northern Indiana and a trailing cold front across
west central Indiana will move east across our region by midday
High pressure over the upper midwest will move east across Indiana

A mild southerly flow will develop on the back side of this high
pressure system Friday as it moves on to the east.  Unseasonably
mild conditions will occur Saturday and again early next week as a
strong upper ridge builds over the southern U.S.   A weak frontal
system will move our way and stall over northern sections Sunday and
then move back to the north.   Another weak frontal system will move
our way around the middle of next week.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today and Tonight/...

Issued at 945 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Rain has ended across central Indiana as a low pressure system and
associated cold front push farther east. Current forecast is on
track, so no changes. Current temps across the area are generally
in the upper 40s/low 50s and are expected to top off in the mid
50s to low 60s. Updated grids have been sent.

Low pressure was over northern Indiana and a weak cold front
extended southwest across west central Indiana and southern
Illinois.  The cold front will move rapidly east across central
Indiana this morning as the low pressure system moves towards the
eastern Great Lakes.

Radar indicated widely scattered light showers were occurring over
central Indiana and a few areas in eastern Illinois were reporting
patchy drizzle.  Could a few light showers or patchy drizzle over
the eastern half of our region early this morning. Satellite and
weather depiction indicated lots of low clouds upstream to our
west and cloudy skies should persist well into the afternoon
before breaking up late today.

Will go with partly cloudy conditions late today and early tonight
with some areas becoming mostly clear later tonight.  Temperatures
will fall into the lower 50s or lower after the cold front moves
through and remain in the 50s most areas later today.  Went with
highs from the lower 50s northwest to around 60 far southeast.

With light winds and clearing tonight went a little cooler with lows


.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The high pressure system which will move across Indiana tonight will
move on to the east Friday and a milder southerly flow on the back
side of this high will allow temperatures to become warmer Friday.
With lots of sun and warm advection went a little warmer than MOS
temperatures.   Highs Friday will be from the middle 60s northeast
to the lower 70s southwest.

The rest of the short term period will be unseasonably mild with a
moderate southerly flow.  Models indicate a strong upper ridge will
build over the deep south.   Lows will be in the middle 50s Friday
night and middle to upper 50s Saturday night.  Highs Saturday will
be in the middle to upper 70s.

Believe super blend winds are too light Saturday and went closer to
Cancer values. Could see winds gusts 20 knots or higher Saturday.

A weak cold front will stall across the northern parts of our region
by Sunday.  This front could bring a few showers to northern areas
late Saturday night.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Mainly Dry weather is expected this period.

ECMWF suggests High pressure and ridging in place aloft through
the period...steering any forcing dynamics well north of
Indiana...across Ontario and the Great Lakes. A couple warm days
look in store as we start November as deep low pressure system
looks to move through the Great lakes on Tuesday. Strong and warm
SW flow looks to spill into the Ohio Valley with above normal
temperatures. An Associated cold front looks to pass through the
area on moisture and forcing will be
long gone...much farther northeast. Trended toward a dry forecast
at most spots after coordination with LMK and PAH.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 271800z tafs/...

Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

MVFR Cigs are expected to improve after 00z to VFR. VFR Conditions
are expected to continue after 00z through the rest of the TAF

Low pressure over Lake Erie was continuing to provide broad
cyclonic flow across the region...including all taf sites. High
pressure was found over the nose of Iowa.

Models continue to suggest that the low will continue to move
rapidly east in the next 6-8 hours...allowing the high pressure
to the west to build across the area and anticyclonic surface flow
to begin. Forecast soundings and time Heights continue to suggest
lower level saturation through at least 00z...and will keep MVFR
Cigs in place through the evening while this moisture remains

Previously mentioned High pressure at the surface and ridging
building aloft is then expected to build across Central Indiana
and the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings and Time heights respond
with a dry column.




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