Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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111
FXUS63 KIND 290352
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1152 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The forecast period will begin with a bit of a lull, but the
active pattern will commence once again Wednesday night as the
next system approaches from the southwest. As a result, showers
and thunderstorms will be possible into Friday. As ridging
strengthens aloft on Friday night though, dry conditions will
return for the weekend. Further out, yet another system will
approach from the southwest, bringing additional shower and
thunderstorm chances late in the extended period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Minor adjustments required to min temps, mainly central and north,
per latest hourly numerical guidance, and minor upward adjustments
to cloud cover were done earlier in conjunction with aviation
forecasts. Overall, forecast remains in excellent shape with only
these inconsequential tweaks. Previous discussion follows.

Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Central Indiana is between systems tonight, so calm weather can be
expected with high pressure aloft. However, time cross sections
are showing lingering low level moisture with a weak inversion.
So, will keep the mostly cloudy skies that latest Superblend
initialization is producing.

Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 30s (northeast) to
upper 40s (southwest).

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Friday/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The low level moisture will start to mix out tomorrow as winds
increase in the lower levels. However, time cross sections then
show an increase in cloud coverage in the mid-levels as a system
approaches from the Central Plains. So, will continue to trend
toward a cloudy forecast on Wednesday.

As the aforementioned system moves into the Missouri Valley
Wednesday night, rain chances will abruptly increase after
midnight. Meanwhile, thunderstorm chances will remain confined to
the southwestern counties on Wednesday night, then spread across
the remainder of Central Indiana on Thursday as the system moves
closer and forcing increases. SPC has most of the southern two-
thirds of the forecast area in a marginal risk for Day 3, except
for the southwest corner which is in a slight risk for severe
weather.

Decided to carry thunderstorm chances into Thursday night as well
as upper low traverses the area, but severe threat should taper
off by then. All thunderstorms should be confined to just the
eastern third of the forecast area early Friday morning with only
rain shower chances across all of the forecast area on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The general weather pattern will continue through the long term. The
main focus will be on timing of showers.

Models and ensembles continue the pattern of having Pacific systems
move through the dessert southwest, Plains and then Ohio Valley with
ridging in between. One such system will be moving out of the area
Friday night. Ridging in its wake should allow for dry weather
through Sunday night. Then, the next system will be getting close
enough for pops by Monday. The system should then be on our doorstep
on Tuesday, so pops look good the rest of the long term. Instability
progs suggest some instability will be around if only weak. So, will
throw in isolated thunderstorms.

Look for below normal temperatures in the 50s on Friday but above
normal temperatures by Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the
second system. Blend highs in the 60s look good.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 29/06Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1152 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

MVFR ceilings will predominate during the first 8 to 12 hours of
the TAF period. Conditions will likely become VFR across all
sites tomorrow afternoon.

Moisture lingering under an inversion aloft will keep widespread
cloud cover in place overnight into Wednesday, with ceilings
likely to continue to build down overnight as cooling occurs. At
this time it appears likely that conditions will remain MVFR.

Winds through the period will generally be 10KT or less. Northerly
winds initially will gradually become easterly overnight into
tomorrow.

No significant obstructions to visibility are expected through the
period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD



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