Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010816
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
416 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SAINT LOUIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY...BUT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HINT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY.  THEN DEEPENING UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.   DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AFTER THAT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME WARMER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.  FARTHER NORTH THE WEATHER
WAS QUIET BUT AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
INDIANA AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  RAPID REFRESH MODEL
INDICATES SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT
PATCHY FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE SOME AREAS AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER THAT...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE THE RULE THIS MORNING
...BUT BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUR WAY.  WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TODAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE FAR NORTHWEST AS
COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES THERE.
OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.   HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER THEN.  YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED COLD FRONT WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.   MODELS TODAY INDICATE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH AND BOTH GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH.
NEVERLESS WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND THE 60S TUESDAY...
WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD THOUGH AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATE...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A VORTICITY LOBE
CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFTING DOESN/T
APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG TONIGHT GIVEN ONLY 15-20 KTS OF FLOW AT
850MB. QUESTIONABLE WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DIRECT IMPACTS. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON
THAT AT ISSUANCE TIME. CONVECTION THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND DAYBREAK
AS THE VORTICITY LOBE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS LIFT
HELPS TO MIX UP THE AIR MASS...BUT SHOULD SEE CEILINGS 004-007 AGL DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LIFT DIMINISHES. MODEL DATA INDICATE RATHER DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
DISSIPATE THE IFR CEILINGS TOWARDS LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...EXCEPT NEAR ANY CONVECTION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME 260-290 AT 7-10 KTS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD



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