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000
FXUS63 KIND 182239
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
639 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

High pressure over the eastern United States will control Indiana
weather into Saturday.  A weak cold front is forecast to cross our
state Sunday. A much stronger cold front should pass Tuesday. For
the middle of next week high pressure is going to return to
Indiana.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...

Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

There is very strong model agreement high pressure will cause clear
weather. The models also agree with on factors that will drive the
temperature forecast. Based on recent history a MAV/MET consensus
should work with expected errors of 2 degrees or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thursday through Saturday)...

Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

With good model agreement high pressure will cause mostly clear
skies and mild temperatures. there are no major forecast problems.

Both deterministic fields and statistical processes from the various
models support the consensus temperature forecast. It can be used
with expected errors of 3 degrees or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Wetter and more active weather will occur during the long term
period...especially Sunday through Tuesday.  Models move a cold
front east across our region Sunday and Sunday night.  Models also
indicate a closed upper low over the lower Mississippi valley early
next week as a stronger closed upper low over north central Canada
deepens during the period.

The GFS...is more progressive with the southern upper low and move
it east of our region by late Monday while the Canadian and European
models are slower and keep us wetter through Tuesday.   Eventually
these systems become phased as colder spreads into southern
Canada...the upper midwest and eventually into our region.  For now
will accept the blended POPS with only a few minor tweaks.

Temperatures will be above normal Sunday and become cooler than
normal by the middle of next week.   Overall superlbend temperatures
seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 190000Z TAFS/...
Issued at 639 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Some potential exists tonight for low level wind shear, but
confidence in reaching criteria low given the core of the low
level jet tonight will be well north over the central Great Lakes.

Otherwise, no significant cloud cover and unrestricted visibility
expected at the terminals tonight. Surface winds 180-200 degrees
at 4-8 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JAS