Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 171151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
351 AM PST Sat Feb 17 2018

Dry and mild conditions through Saturday. Next weather system
brings stronger winds and a chance of showers to mainly the
mountains late Sunday and Monday followed by cold temperatures
early next week with a possible widespread freeze.


Clear and dry conditions with diminishing light offshore flow. A
ridge off the coast will continue to provide above normal day time
temperatures and bit warmer than yesterday.

Models prog a cold weather pattern setting up for early next
week. The pattern in the west will become amplified as the East
Pacific ridge amplifies north over Alaska. This will set up a long
fetch of north flow across the west bringing a cold airmass from
Western Canada. The airmass will be cold continental with little
moisture. Thus precipitation amounts are expected to be light
with any of the shower activity and mainly over mountains.

A change in conditions begin on Sunday as models are in close
agreement in pushing a cold frontal system through the region.
Consensus brings some cooling to northern portions of central CA
Sunday. The higher resolution models show some precipitation over
the high sierra by mid day Sunday. A cold front is progged to move
southward through the district overnight Sunday. Scattered
showers will be possible mainly over the mountains Sunday
afternoon and Monday. Expect stronger winds to develop Sunday
afternoon with the strong onshore flow. Think high winds will be
probable below mountain passes of Eastern Kern county Sunday night
as strong upper level winds from the NW become perpendicular to
the mountain range. Snow levels should lower down into the
foothills, though no significant accumulating snow is expected
with this system.

The very cold air will also bring freezing temperatures to the
lower elevations. Breezy conditions will still keep the lower
levels too mixed Monday morning, and lows in the San Joaquin
Valley are only expected to drop into the mid 30s. However a
colder morning expected Tuesday, as clear skies and light winds
allow for better radiational cooling. Overnight lows could drop
into the mid-upper 20s by Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning
temperatures could be similar to Tuesday morning. Models begin to
diverge late Wednesday. The gfs cuts off an upper low off the
central coast, while the EC is more progressive and bring the
upper low over the SW. The remainder of next week then remains
generally around climo as the ridge remains disrupted by passing
shortwaves. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Tuesday, Wednesday,
and Thursday mornings for the potential of freezing temperatures
and the impact on vegetation that has been recently experiencing
more springlike conditions.


VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior during
the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Thursday morning



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