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000
FXUS61 KLWX 261415
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1015 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure moves south along the eastern Appalachians
today into Saturday. Cooler temperatures prevail as a result
along, with increased cloud cover and showers on Saturday. A warm
front lifts through the area this weekend bringing a significant
warm up Sunday and Monday. The next chance for widespread
precipitation arrives with a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Upper level ridging will begin building from the west through
tonight. A surface high over southern New England begins to
slide south into the western Atlantic Ocean. Dry conditions
expected today. However, onshore flow continues to result in
clouds banked against the central Appalachians. Guidance
indicates some thinning of the cloud deck as mixing of dry air
increases through this afternoon. In general, more clouds are
expected with southwestward extend from DC. Below normal
temperatures continue today as highs reach the low to mid 60s.
Not as cool tonight, with lows settling in the low to mid 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level trough over the Northern Plains ejects east over the
Great Lakes Saturday. Most of the energy associated with this
system remains well to our west, though some weak vorticity riding
atop the ridge aloft will make its way over our area. Combined with
a warm front lifting north there will be scattered shower activity,
especially west of US-15. Given the slow moving nature of this
system, Saturday looks to be cloudy and at time showery. This keeps
highs slightly cooler in the upper 50s to low 60s. Though, much
milder Saturday night as lows settle in the 50s.

Deep ridging engulfs much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Sunday,
bringing a return of dry, partly cloudy, and significantly warmer
conditions. An early taste of summer Sunday as highs reach the low
to mid 80s, which is about 20-25 degrees higher than Saturday. A few
showers or thunderstorms could develop west of the Blue Ridge Sunday
afternoon, though given the deep mixing and dry low-levels any
convective activity will be short lived. Even milder Sunday night as
lows settle in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A strong upper ridge remains overhead on Monday with anomalously
warm temperatures to start the work week. Highs well into the
80s are forecast Monday and Tuesday, though a few degrees cooler
Tuesday with the increased cloud cover as high pressure moves
offshore and a weak cold front approaches from the west. The
frontal passage isn`t expected to bring much relief from the
heat, however. Showers and thunderstorms could accompany the
front in the afternoon and evening and some could be strong to
severe. Decent instability will be available, but guidance has
been weaker on the shear. Will continue to monitor. A weaker
shortwave moves through on Wednesday, with more potential for
showers and thunderstorms. The environment will be similar as
far as instability and shear, but with weaker forcing.

Guidance diverges heading into late week, but thus far above average
temperatures are expected to continue with possibly some relief near
the end of the week or into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through late this evening as high
pressure to our northeast maintains dry conditions. Broken
ceilings around 5-8kft may thin somewhat by afternoon, although
more clouds are likely to linger near CHO.

A weak disturbance moves across the area Saturday morning into
Saturday afternoon, likely bringing showers and periods of sub-VFR
conditions to CHO and MRB. There could be some sub-VFR conditions at
IAD in the afternoon, though confidence is low at this time. DCA,
BWI, and MTN look to stay just east of the lower CIGs, though again
it bears watching as that could change. The system exits Saturday
night, with VFR conditions returning through the rest of the weekend.

Southeast winds around 10 knots today turn south-southeast to south
Saturday, then southwest on Sunday. Could see some occasional gusts
to 15-20 knots each afternoon to evening, especially at DCA, MTN,
and BWI.

VFR conditions are expected Monday with high pressure. Sub-VFR
conditions are possible with any showers and thunderstorms as a weak
cold front moves through on Tuesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Onshore flow will continue through tonight. Periods of SCA
conditions are likely across most of the waters, especially the
open waters of the Chesapeake Bay through Saturday night.
Southeast winds are likely to result in several hours of gusts
to around 20 knots this afternoon to evening, so a Small Craft
Advisory has been issued. For Saturday, southerly channeling is
likely to result in additional SCA winds during the evening
hours.

High pressure builds across the region Sunday, likely keeping
southwest winds at 10 knots or less.

Westerly flow to start on Monday becomes southerly in the evening.
Winds may approach SCA criteria on Tuesday as a weak cold front
moves through the area, and stronger gusts will be possible with any
showers and thunderstorms passing over the waters. Winds become
westerly behind the front Tuesday night.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for some locations for
this morning`s high tide. This is due in part to increased
northeast to easterly flow eventually switching to the
south/southeast this weekend. The potential for coastal flooding
continues Saturday as southerly flow persists, with several
sites approaching or exceeding minor.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ508.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ530>533-536-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ534-537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ535.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...ADS/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADS/CAS/KRR
MARINE...ADS/CAS/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX