Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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892 FXUS61 KLWX 281450 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1050 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure builds over the region Wednesday into Thursday. Another disturbance will approach the area late Thursday into early Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mesolow has brought a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms so far today. Now the question is whether we will get more. With rain having fallen just about everywhere and clouds still plentiful, it has become rather stable. However, there are some breaks of sun in central and western VA, and if these can spread north and east and it can become unstable again, another round of showers and thunderstorms is very possible. However... latest guidance may be starting to lean away from this scenario, with stability possibly dominating for the remainder of the day and precipitation coverage ending up more scattered than widespread. SPC has removed marginal threat of severe from just about all of our CWA. SREF severe probabilities imply the chances are better across SE VA/NC than in our area, Bufkit profiles show neither high CAPE nor shear, and this will be coming through fairly early in the day. Took highs down a little - we may need to reduce them a bit more if expected breaks of sun are hard to come by.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Cold front pushes south across the region this evening. High pressure will be building into the area behind it later tonight through Wednesday night. Patchy fog could develop tonight with lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s, though if there is enough wind, this may limit the fog potential. Plenty of sunshine is expected Wednesday. Winds from the north expected to gust up to 20 mph. Temperatures will top out in the 60s. With the high to our north Wednesday night excellent radational cooling conditions are expected. This will drop temperatures into the 30s west of I-95. A warm front is forecast to be well to our south Thursday. Clouds will be increasing as the day progresses. It will be cool and dry. Highs in the 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A low pressure system will be moving out of the Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday morning. This will send a surge of warm and moist air advection across the area Thursday night. While best forcing may lift north of the area, chances for showers will be on the increase Thursday night. The system will push to the eastern seaboard on Friday. Current model solutions depict fairly disjointed system, but do show potential for some consolidation/redevelopment of the surface low downwind of the strongest upper level energy Friday night. Thus will see highest chances of organized rainfall from Friday into Friday night. Temperatures during this time shouldn`t see a whole lot of diurnal variability with increased clouds/moisture/rain, generally 40s at night, 50s during the day. The low will pull eastward away from the coast on Saturday. Could have some lingering showers, but will see a drying trend during the day. High pressure will build into the region by Sunday with dry conditions. The next system will eject out of the Plains and may approach the area early next week. Highs generally low to mid 60s Saturday through Monday, with lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Patchy IFR conditions persist with showers at the moment. Conditions will likely slowly lean back towards VFR at all sites as some drier air moves in aloft. After that, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible mid-late afternoon. VFR conditions expected tonight through Thursday. Chances for sub-VFR conditions increase by Friday and continue through Friday night with potential for low ceilings and visibilities in rain with low pressure system crossing the region. Conditions will improve through the day on Saturday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Isolated thunderstorms possible remainder of the day. Winds in any storm could gust to 35 knots, though odds are low. An SCA has been issued for tonight and Wednesday behind a cold front. Northerly winds are expected to gust to 20 kt. Potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions increases Thursday night and Friday with increasing southeasterly winds ahead of an approaching system. Winds will then turn north/northwesterly on Saturday behind the system, with continued potential for SCA conditions.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530-535-536-538-542.
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&& $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/MJM/RCM

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