Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 290428
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
928 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The cold Pacific storm system over the area this
evening will exit to the southeast later tonight. A trailing cold
northerly flow will follow through midweek. The next storm system
will arrive over the Great Basin late in the week.

&&

.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...The axis of the cold core upper
trough over central Utah at mid-evening will continue to the
southeast and exit the state late tonight. The bulk of the
remaining snow is confined to the western half of the state this
evening. Organized precip along the trough axis will thin out a
bit later this evening as the trough exits off to the southeast.
The trailing cold advection northerly flow will still be quite
moist and unstable, leading to renewed snow showers primarily
along the I-15 corridor in west-central through southwest Utah.
Have extended the winter weather advisory for those areas through
late tonight.

Up north looking at the potential for period of lake enhanced
snowfall south of the GSL. Temperature and moisture profiles are
not wildly supportive of lake effect snows, but still see
sufficient evidence to focus accumulating snows across western
Salt Lake and northern Utah counties along with the Tooele
valley. May need to extend the current winter weather advisory
for those area, with the remainder of the advisory to the north
being allowed to expire as scheduled late this evening.

Showers will linger across mainly the southern portion of the
state early Tuesday as the air mass will see be sufficiently moist
and unstable to support this activity.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM (18Z Tuesday Through 00Z Thursday)...As the
trough pulls away from the area on Tuesday, a period of shortwave
ridging can be expected Wednesday. Mid-level warm air advection
may bring the threat of light snow to the northern Wasatch
Mountains by Wednesday evening.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...(After 00Z Thursday)...The next short wave
trof to impact the CWA will be approaching from the northwest at
the start of the long term period. The EC continues to indicate
this trof will slide past mainly to our east while the GFS is a
little farther west but there won`t be all that much difference in
the sensible weather that results.

Both models are initially similar sending a cold front n to s thru
the CWA starting in the pre dawn hours Thu exiting the CWA Thu
eve. This will not be all that wet a system but any precip should
fall as snow.

Expect sub surface temps to chill down after todays snow and the
colder airmass that will be in place thru tomorrow so even some
light accumulation Thu morning could stick to colder roads and
have an impact on travel.

Snow becomes more showery and orographic Thu aftn into Thu night
in the cold northerly flow that develops with a few mtn snow
showers lasting thru Fri.

Upstream ridging brings an end to any precip Fri night but a warm
front on the nw flow Sat morning will bring clouds to the north.
The EC keeps a lower amplitude ridge in place thru the weekend
with clouds and a chance of precip over the north. The ridge in the
GFS is sharper and keeps the CWA dry thru Sun. Have leaned towards a
compromise between these solutions keeping a very low pop across the
far north.

Both med range models then drop a large pool of cold air into the
western states starting Mon with a strong west-northwest flow
over UT. The frontal boundary sags southward into the CWA on Mon
with even colder temps and a threat of snow over the north. This
threat continues past day 7 and spreads across more of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow showers have tapered off and VFR conditions are
expected at the SLC terminal for the rest of the night. There is
still a small chance a passing snow shower will dip vis into MVFR
or even brief IFR categories through the night. Winds will mostly
stay northerly but could become light and variable or even light
southerly for a time after about 10z thru 16z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for UTZ008>010-517-
     518.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
     UTZ002>004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM MST Tuesday for UTZ015-016.

WY...None.
&&

$$

CONGER/WILENSKY

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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