Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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228
FXUS65 KSLC 222138
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
338 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper-level trough moving east through the northern
Rockies will push a dry cold front through northern Utah tonight.
The southeastern half of the state will see isolated showers or
storms Monday and Tuesday. Building high pressure aloft will lead to
above-normal temperatures next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 12Z MONDAY)...An upper trof is crossing the nrn
Rockies this aftn with the associated dry cold front beginning to
enter nwrn Ut. A surface thermal trof out ahead of the front lays
stalled across nwrn UT and isolated convection has been firing along
this feature. Farther south deep moisture remains in place across
the mtns and ern valleys while the west is starting to dry out.
A few of the cells over the mtns and east has become strong with
heavy rain and some hail.

The dry cold front should merge with the thermal trof late this
aftn or this eve then heads south with some convection remaining
focused along this boundary through this evening. The drier air
spreading in behind this boundary will end the threat of
convection across the north.

This boundary doesn`t quite sweep the moisture out of the state
but drier westerlies do spread across the south tomorrow as well.
This drying should limit convection to isolated at best over
about the sern 1/2 of the CWA.

A cooler airmass spreads into the north behind the front as well
with 5-10 deg cooling on Sat from today while the south sees
little change.

A new weak upper trof along the coast backs the flow to swly again
across the CWA on Sun with a little moisture beginning to spread
back into the south. Don`t expect much difference in convective
coverage Sun however and temps start to warm back up across the
north.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...Another extended period
of 100+ degree max temps looms for portions of the Wasatch front
beginning on Monday. The good news is that overnight wind speeds
will be lower than during the past week, which will allow for
slightly better overnight cooling and hopefully avert another streak
of record-high min temps.

On Monday, a mid- and upper-level height gradient from west to east
across the southwestern U.S. will induce southerly flow from Arizona
northward into Utah. Modest advection of moisture into the region
will bring PWATs closer to average across the southeastern half of
the CWA. This area can expect increased cloud cover and a chance of
isolated showers or storms through Tuesday, while mostly clear skies
and above-normal temperatures predominate over the north.

An upper-level ridge will build over the Great Basin and
southwestern U.S. through the middle and latter portions of the
week. Subsidence along the northern edge of this feature will
continue to produce a dry airmass with clear skies and above-normal
temperatures through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...Northerly winds will persist at the SLC
terminal through the evening hours, with brief periods of gusty
erratic winds due to outflow from nearby storms through 02z. A late
southeast wind shift is possible after 04z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms that fired over the
mountains and east will dissipate this evening. A dry cold front
crossing northern Utah this evening will spread cooler more stable
air across the north Saturday with some drying expected across the
south as well. It will stay dry Sunday although a little moisture
will start to return north into southern Utah in the afternoon.
Moisture will increase across the south again Monday into Tuesday
while it stays hot and dry across the north.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wilensky
LONG TERM...Rutz
AVIATION...Dewey
FIRE WEATHER...Wilensky

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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