Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 231643

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1043 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A cold and moist storm system will impact Utah and
southwest Wyoming through today. High pressure will bring a drier
and more stable airmass for the weekend through the first part of
next week.


.DISCUSSION...Morning water vapor and H5 analysis place the core
of a deep closed upper low over Utah, with mid level axis
stretching from the Great Salt Lake south roughly along I-15.
Widespread precip exists beneath the core of upper circulation
across northern Utah attm, focused roughly north and west of KSLC,
with steady rain across many northern valley areas and snow
roughly above 7000 FT. Across the south generally orographic type
rain and snow showers exists along the mid level baroclinic zone.

Moving ahead focus of precip is expected to stretch from northern
Utah south into central portions well into tonight, this beneath
a trowal poised to strengthen within the wrap around periphery of
the low. Oroghaphic enhancement will remain likely areas along the
I-15 corridor generally north of I-70. This trowal is rapidly
developing across northwestern Utah currently as the upper Low is
in process of lifting northeast into southwestern Wyoming, and by
this time tomorrow the low will be transitioning into the upper
plains. Building heights from the south and west at that time will
allow for a net diminishing of lingering precip across the north
with any remaining rain/snow showers tapering during the morning

Maintaining Winter Weather Advisory for the northern mountains
where the greatest potential of accumulating snow remains through
tonight. Did a minor update to the short term to focusing on
latest precip trends, otherwise going forecast remains on track
with high pressure building in by the beginning of next week
allowing a gradual warming and drying trend across the area.


.AVIATION...Northwesterly surface winds are expected to be
maintained at the KSLC terminal into this evening. Rain showers
this morning will maintain cigs at or below 7000ft, with cigs
and vis likely falling into the MVFR category with passage of
each. Prevailing MVFR conditions remain likely for this afternoon.


.FIRE WEATHER...Yesterday`s ERC values were below the 50th
percentile across the south, while several stations across the
Uinta mountains were closer to the 75th percentile.

A cold wet storm system will continue to bring periods of valley
rain and mountain snow across the north today, while southern Utah
dries out. Winds will be somewhat gusty across much of the area
today, and the south tomorrow. Snow Levels are likely to fall to near
7kft today.

A drying and warming trend is expected to begin this weekend
lasting into next week.


UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM MDT Saturday for UTZ007>009.




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