Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS65 KSLC 271142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
542 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE UTAH ARIZONA BORDER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 12 SATURDAY)...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS OVER UT
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROF OVER NV AND A CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE OR COAST.

SHOWERS LINGERED OVER THE NRN CWA OVERNIGHT IN MOIST NWLY FLOW
WITH ONE FAIRLY PERSISTENT BAND OVER SALT LAKE CO DROPPING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE NEARBY WASATCH MTNS. ALTHO THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED EXPECT THEM TO STILL PERSIST FOR AN
HOUR OR SO PAST SUNRISE UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER UTAH
SHARPENS UP AND SUBSIDENCE BRIEFLY DOMINATES BY MIDDAY.

MEANWHILE DEFORMATION INDUCED SHOWERS ALSO PERSISTED OVER SWRN UT
OVERNIGHT AND THESE SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE LEADING
TROF OVER NV SHIFTS INTO SWRN UT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTN
THRU THIS EVE AS THIS LEADING TROF WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING CLOSED LOW. THE LOW DROPS SEWD THRU CA TONIGHT
ENDING UP NEAR THE SRN TIP OF NV BY 12Z THU. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING N AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CROSS UT
OVERNIGHT AND THU KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER MOST
AREAS THRU THU.

MODELS STILL INDICATE A FAIRLY TIGHT NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN UT AND SW WY THU MORNING UNDER AN INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PLUS MODEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WILL GENERATE GUSTY EASTERLY CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT
AND IN THE CACHE VALLEY. SPEEDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AND
WINDS LOOK TO LAST INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI
BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM FRI AFTN. THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12 SATURDAY)...THE LAST OF A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL DESCEND SOUTH SATURDAY REINFORCING THE MEAN
LONG WAVE IN PLACE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE
WILL CLOSE OFF ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER SATURDAY MORNING THEN
GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. A LOOK AT H7
THERMAL FIELDS AND RH INDICATE FOCUSED FORCING/CONVERGENCE ACROSS
WESTERN THEN SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MODEST
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MSLP GRADIENT OWING TO A
POTENTIAL FOR MODEST CANYON WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO UP POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
COINCIDENT WITH THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW
WHERE THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LOOK LIKELY TO RECEIVE
PRECIP...THOUGH NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD ONLY REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT BEST.

THIS LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MEAN RIDGING BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. GLOBALS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE LOW IN PLACE WILL FILL AND MODERATE QUITE RAPIDLY
TUESDAY ALLOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AND NET STABILIZATION ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY AID ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER AND
DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN TUESDAY...BUT AN ALL DRY FORECAST LOOKS
LIKELY BY WED.

OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...TEMP TRENDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE KSLC TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS SUCH...EXPECTING CIGS TO CONTINUE TO THIN AND LIFT ALLOWING
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS A RELATIVE
BREAK BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS BECOMES ESTABLISHED. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT CIGS BELOW
6000FT AGL AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW SETTLES
IN.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.