Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 262143
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
343 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CROSSING
CENTRAL UTAH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH HAS BECOME STRATIFORM. HOWEVER
HRRR INDICATES CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND IT
APPEARS TO BE STARTING IN WASHINGTON COUNTY AS OF 2130Z. OVER THE
NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE SCATTERED WITH MAIN ACTION
ASSOCIATED WITH NEVADA LOW JUST CROSSING THE BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WASATCH FRONT THIS EVENING.

THUS FAR CELLS HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL...ENOUGH TO CLOSE PART OF
HIGHWAY 24 IN WAYNE COUNTY...AND SOME FLASH FLOODING IN CAPITAL
REEF NATIONAL PARK. MOST CELLS ARE MOVING QUITE FAST AND HEAVY
RAIN HAS BEEN BRIEF.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO UTAH THIS EVENING EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DEMISE OF SOLAR HEATING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY...BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL STILL
POSSIBLE.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST A WRAP AROUND WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH
STRATIFORM RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING UINTA
COUNTY WYOMING AND THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE UINTA MOUNTAINS...SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND PRECIP COULD EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
WASATCH MOUNTAINS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF UTAH WEDNESDAY AS UPPPER LOW...SOME HEATING...AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE ONE MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED
AUGUST WEATHER...WITH CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATE WED.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THU/FRI AND AIRMASS DRIES CONSIDERABLY.
A COUPLE DAYS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER WILL SEEM
NOVEL AFTER THE PAST 4 WEEKS.

WESTERLIES SEND A SERIES OF TROUGHS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE
CONVERGING ON A PRECIP SOLUTION AS THESE TROUGHS DRAG TRAILING
COLD FRONTS INTO NORTHERN UTAH...SOME RUNS HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THESE FRONTS AND OTHER RUNS ARE COMPLETELY DRY. IT LIKELY
DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THESE SYSTEMS ENCOUNTER WHEN
THEY CROSS NORTHERN UTAH. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THE FIRST OF THESE COLD FRONTS DUE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTER 3 WARM DAYS...IT WILL BE BACK TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR NORTHERN UTAH FROM SUNDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOOKS QUIET OVER THE SOUTH AS THE FLOW IS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
SURROUNDING TERRAIN WITH COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASING AFTER 00Z AND
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN STORMS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ013-020-
     021.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
AVIATION...SOLUM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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