Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KSLC 122036
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
236 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS IS ALREADY VERY DRY...TOMORROW IT WILL
WARM...THAT PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...DRY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW CUMULUS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE OVER A MOUNTAIN OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOONS.

THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING. TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS FORECAST TO
STREGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AND MOVE UP THE WEST COAST OF BAJA NEXT
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HURRICANE AND THE
VARIOUS TROUGHS ALONG THE WEST COAST BRING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

12Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS WITH A PRETTY GOOD
SLUG OF MOISTURE AND RAIN INDICATED FOR UTAH ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING FRIDAY. YESTERDAY THE 00Z/12Z EC TOOK THE HURRICANE
OUT TO SEA...BUT THE NEW 12Z EC IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE IS THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGHS APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST. 12Z EC SUGGESTS MAIN PRECIP EVENT WOULD BE FRIDAY
RATHER THAN THURSDAY. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A PRECIP EVENT IS
GOING UP...BUT DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING ARE STILL FUZZY. THE EVENT
DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS POTENT AS WHAT JUST OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
WEEK AS THE EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AND THE JET IS
LOCATED FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS PAST MONDAY/TUESDAY. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWN THU/FRI AND INCREASED POPS. IT IS STILL NEARLY
A WEEK AWAY SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT FOR NOW
ITS DESERVES CLOSE WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE
DISTRICT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. GREATER INSTABILITY AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SUNDAY AND AGAIN EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AWAY FROM ANY STORMS...HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW AND WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
FIRE WEATHER...WILENSKY
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.