Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 192129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
329 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will move into the forecast area tonight
and tomorrow, resulting in a drying trend. Moisture will spread
back into much of the forecast area late in the weekend through
early next week.


.SHORT TERM (through 12Z Monday)...A weak cold front has mad its
way through northern Utah this afternoon. Conditions are dry and
stable along and behind the front, but a few showers and
thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain ahead of the

Drying will continue from the north through tomorrow as high
pressure builds. Behind the front, northern Utah temperatures will
be a few degrees below seasonal normals, and near climo over
southern Utah. Afternoon convection will be confined to southern
Utah, where a small amount of moisture will remain pooled. Some
moisture will begin to move into southern Utah on Sunday, allowing
for increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. However, the
moisture is expected to move northward in earnest beginning


.LONG TERM (after 12Z Monday)...The long term portion of the
forecast will start with a relatively strong shortwave trough
associated with the northern jet stream crossing near the
Washington/Canada border, moving eastward.  This trough will help to
draw moisture northward into Utah Monday afternoon. A weaker trough
embedded in the southern jet will cross the Desert Southwest Monday
into Tuesday.

Ridging is expected to build into the region in the wake of the
northern jet trough...bringing drier and more stable conditions
Wednesday and Thursday. Model to model consistency decreases after
this point, with at least one solution increasing the chance of
convection across the state Friday into Saturday.

Kept elevated pops both Monday and Tuesday, with a large decrease in
coverage by Wednesday. Temperatures look to remain near to a bit
above normal through the long term portion of the forecast.


.AVIATION...Northwest winds will prevail at KSLC through the
evening before switching back to the south late tonight. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period.


.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air is moving into the district from the north
this afternoon behind a cold front that is moving through. A
few showers have developed over the higher terrain, primarily
over southern and eastern Utah, and will continue into the
evening. Gusty winds are the main threat with any showers that
develop. High pressure will move in Saturday, resulting in
continued drying. Any afternoon and evening convection will be
confined to southern Utah. On Sunday, moisture will start to move
back into southern Utah before surging northward Monday and
remaining in place through Tuesday.


.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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