Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
FXUS65 KSLC 292107
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
307 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving east through the desert
southwest combined with an approaching trough across the Pacific
Northwest will bring unsettled conditions across mainly central
and northern portions of Utah through tonight and to central and
southern Utah Monday. Strong high pressure aloft will follow for
the middle and latter portions of the upcoming week.
.SHORT TERM...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are firing up
under the deformation zone overhead created by the closed upper
low moving across the desert southwest and a trough moving across
the Pacific Northwest. So far the majority of the convection has
been developing over the higher terrain but this convection should
fill in over the valleys later this afternoon and evening. These
storms have very little vertical shear so do not expect any
severe weather. However, small hail and gusty winds are possible.
The precipitable water is above 0.50 of an inch across northwest
Utah valleys while less than 0.33 of an inch across the
southeastern valleys. Consequently better chance for measurable
precip across the northwestern valleys.
The trough moving through the Pacific northwest today will move
across the northern Rockies early Monday morning pushing an
associated weak cold front across northwest Utah. Dry air behind
this front will continue to push southward across the area through
Monday and then clear the region by late Tuesday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will occur across central and southern
Utah Monday afternoon ahead of this front with linger showers
into Monday night across mainly the southern mountains.
Clear skies across northern portions of the CWA will allow the dry
air mass to cool down to near normal levels by Wednesday morning.
Otherwise...slightly above normal temperatures are expected
through the short term period.
.LONG TERM (After 06z Thursday)...By Thursday, the ridge axis is
expected to move overhead. This will keep the strong warming and
drying trend over the area with winds remaining light. Maxes are
expected to become in excess of 15F above seasonal norms for the
latter half of the week. The ridge is then expected to amplify over
the weekend as a Pacific storm system approaches the California
coast. However, this system is not expected to move onshore until
early next week.
.AVIATION...North to northwest winds are expected to become
predominately southerly at the SLC Terminal between 03-04Z. There is
a 30 percent chance convective outflow from passing showers and
thunderstorms will cause winds at the terminal to become gusty and
erratic for a time through 03Z.
.FIRE WEATHER...A couple of weak storm systems will impact the fire
district through tomorrow, keeping a somewhat moist and unsettled
air mass over the area. These storms will move out of the area
Tuesday, with strong high pressure building in behind. This will
result in a strong drying trend with continued warming. Winds will
be generally light, but minimum relative humidity values are
expected to dip into the single digits in some valley locations by
Thursday. The ridge is expected to remain in place through the
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