Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 182153
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
353 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
TRACKED TO JUST NORTH OF NEPHI AND APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN CONVECTION OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN NEVADA
NORTHEAST TO THE LOGAN AREA IN WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE BUT LITTLE TO
NO LIGHTNING. EXPECT LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THESE SHOWERS
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. BOTH
THE HIGHER-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND HAVE REDUCED POPS AS
A RESULT.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL NOTED IN AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THIS AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. ALREADY SEEING AN INFLUX OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY GRINDS
CLOSER TO THE AREA BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF AND FORMATION OF A WEAK DEFORMATION ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISMS AT THAT TIME.

AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WEAK FORCING FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE AND
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF .6
INCHES COULD SEE SOME MODERATE RAINERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AND ISOLATED STORMS ALL AREAS BUT THE NORTHERN WASATCH
FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 8500 FT BUT COULD
BRIEFLY IN A MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE CELL.

DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LOSS OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. A VERY WEAK WAVE
COMBINED WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PROMOTE MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT FLOW DOES LOOK TO
BE TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT. CHANCE POPS
FOCUSED OVER THE TERRAIN FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER COLORADO
BY THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS A BIT UNUSUAL OUT FOUR DAYS. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO
PRETTY CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH. EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BE THE
LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWERS AS PER BOTH MODELS. TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH HOTTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON TUESDAY. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY. GOOD STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUT UTAH UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED WIND HEADLINES AS A PERIOD OF VERY
STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY. TO REITERATE...THIS EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A HIGH END WIND EVENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE RATHER SLOW
MOVING AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT TOO CONFIDENT OUT THAT FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AROUND AROUND 05Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
REMAIN NORTHERLY LONGER. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THESE COULD BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO THE
TERMINAL...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/YOUNG


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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