Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 221524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
924 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A drier northwest flow will settle into the area today
with cooler temperatures across the north. High pressure will
redevelop for the early part of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Morning satellite imagery shows the Brian Head fire
plume very nicely just to the east of Cedar City, UT. The smoke
plume extends east and south from Boulder to just near Bullfrog.
Elsewhere, some isolated mountain cumulus over Castle Country and
the Central Mountains, as well as spanning across far southeast
Utah. The cold front is currently pushing farther south and east
and is presently stretching from Price to Bryce Canyon. Winds
across northwest Utah are becoming gusty behind the front and are
expected to remain gusty across most of the area through this

High resolution models all suggest any convection that develops
today will be small in aerial coverage and confined to the higher
terrain of northeast Utah or far southern Utah. Have added some
isolated slight chance PoPs to the southern and central Mountains
this afternoon. Pwat values are higher out west, though under
little to no instability. Upper level steering flow is west-
northwest at 25 knots or so and a prominent convergent zone exists
across central Utah again today. Confidence is very low for the
possibility of afternoon convection along the Wasatch Front and
feel the better chances lie farther east in the higher terrain.

Temperatures again today will remain above seasonal normal for
northern Utah and very hot across the south. Morning RAOB
observation at 700mb at KSLC has a 2C decrease in temperature
compared to yesterday morning, and as such max temps today should
round out several degrees cooler than yesterday. The excessive
heat warning for Utah`s Dixie area will remain going into this
weekend, with no relief from the heat.


.AVIATION...Persistent northerly surface winds will exist at the
KSLC terminal through this evening. Outside of a few cumulus
buildups over/near the surrounding higher terrain, VFR conditions
under mostly clear skies will prevail throughout the TAF period.


.FIRE WEATHER...(issued at 430 am MDT) The primary fire weather
concern over the next 24 hours hones in on critical wind potential
and bone dry RH across many eastern/southern areas where fuels
are cured and the Haines remains projected at a 6. Red Flag
Warnings remain in place for the susceptible areas where fire
growth and/or maintenance is most prone in these areas. See
RFW/FWF for further details on specific fire weather zones and
elevations. This threat will be greatest during the peak heating
hours focused between noon and 10pm today.

The shallow boundary working south into central/southern Utah
driving this heightened wind potential will promote cooling across
the northern portions of the district with temps peaking some 10
degrees or so cooler today vs. the last few. This said, breezy (sub
critical) northerly winds and low RH can be expected across the
northwestern valley areas as well.

Wind trends will back off come Friday as support in wake of the
boundary passage will begin to wane. Can not rule out isolated
critical winds/RH across some of the prone downslope/mountain areas
in the southeast Friday afternoon, but trends in guidance points
towards threshold values not being met attm. Will continue to


UT...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ021.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ013-020.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ019.




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