Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 241138
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
438 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
UTAH TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL REACH
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN UTAH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WEAK
DYNAMIC LIFT SUPPORTED BY COLD AIR INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP...WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN AN EARLIER END TO
THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS THIS MORNING. THE LEAVE THE CURRENT SUITE
OF WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN PLACE AS EARLIER
ISSUED...THOUGH WE MAY END UP CANCELING THINGS A BIT EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE FAST EXIT OF THIS SHORTWAVE.

A STRONG AND QUITE MOIST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN EMBEDDED WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
THOUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT GENERATED FROM THE
WARM ADVECTION IS BEGINNING APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS/QPFS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH THE ADJACENT VALLEYS STARTING AS
SNOW...THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXED AS THE WARMER
AIR BECOMES BETTER MIXED LATER IN THE DAY.

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY MIDWEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
NUDGE THE MOISTURE NORTH OF UTAH...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS AND
STEADILY WARMING TEMPS HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
SNEAK BY TO THE NORTH. TEMPS AS SUCH WILL TAKE A SLIGHT DIP ON
FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE DROPS TEMPS FURTHER ON
SATURDAY. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN IMPRESSIVE 7H
BAROCLINIC ZONE TRAIPSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY CONTINUE THE DROP IN
TEMPS AND OFFER UP INCREASING OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN UTAH. MODELS INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
STATE ON MONDAY BUT HAVE MAXED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF PERIODS OF IFR
SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 16Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN
13-14Z AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ006-
     010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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