Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 120708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1208 AM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving south along the west
coast will bring one final round of precipitation to mainly
southern and central Utah to end the week. High pressure aloft
will settle over the region for the weekend.


.UPDATE...Area radars show precipitation developing farther north
than anticipating across northern NV and northern UT in response
to a deformation zone setting up across the Great Basin. Cams show
some snow-covered roads already across portions of the northern
Wasatch Front and western I-80. Meanwhile, the HRRR is catching
on to this idea in the latest runs, setting up showers as far
north as Brigham City vicinity. Thus, have tweaked the forecast
to indicate snow showers farther north overnight, though with
minimal accumulation expected for now. Will be watching this
closely tonight.

Big forecast question going into tonight`s shift will be possible
northward shift in accumulations tomorrow, potentially affecting
the morning commute as far north as Ogden.

.DISCUSSION...A trough is diving south along the California coast
this evening, with Utah and southwest Wyoming in a moist westerly
flow on the eastern fringes of this trough. Cold air aloft helped
destabilize the airmass across the area today, leading to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Some of these
showers are continuing across the northern half of the CWA this
evening, but are generally expected to diminish over the next few
hours as the storm shifts southward. Due to this decrease in
activity, will likely allow the warning for Uinta County, Wyoming
to expire as planned later tonight.

Precipitation will fire up again early tomorrow morning along a
tightening baroclinic zone. The best precip is currently expected
in central Utah, though there is still some uncertainty about the
exact placement of this band. The advisories set to go into effect
tomorrow look good, and the overnight shift will have to decide if
they need to be expanded further. Precipitation will likely linger
into Thursday night and Friday, before the low finally exits the
region over the weekend.

The forecast for tonight looks good, and no updates are planned
other than allowing warnings to expire/activate as scheduled.


.AVIATION...Ceilings at the SLC terminal are expected to
persist around 4000 feet with brief periods above this, due to
developing nearby showers. Winds are expected to stay from
the north with periods of light and variable possible through 16z.


UT...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MST Thursday for UTZ006>010.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Thursday night for

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM MST Thursday for

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM MST Thursday for



PUBLIC...Van Cleave

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