Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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558
FXUS65 KSLC 111135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRATUS/FOG/HAZE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH AS MIXING REMAINS POOR UNDERNEATH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY THIS WEEKEND AS THE FIRST OF
A LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THE FIRST FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
ITS ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST COOLING ALOFT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY BREAK DOWN THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST BREAKING THE VERY STABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO HAVE MORE SUCCESS BREAKING UP THE
INVERSION ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE COOLING ALOFT.
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT AS THE BULK
OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STABLE RIDGE PATTERN SHIFTS TO
MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE IN PART TO A SHORT WAVE FEATURE
THAT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH BY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PRECEDING
WEEKEND. UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 700MB TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY SEEMS TO
BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS. WITH THE GFS
HINTING AT A WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF...BOTH ARE
PORTRAYING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA BEFORE
HAVING A SPLIT NATURE AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO SEE LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER BETWEEN 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 02Z THIS
EVENING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001-004-
     015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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