Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 282131
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL MOIST UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
DRIER AND WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD PACIFIC LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE SEEING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD JET SUPPORT. BECAUSE OF THIS...CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE BEST CELLS ARE FOCUSED NEAR THE JET OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME PRECIP
EXTENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS UTAH TOMORROW. AS IT
DOES SO...THE FOCUS OF BEST CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND
EAST...THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABNORMALLY COOL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH MAXES RUNNING AT LEAST 10F BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN.

BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH FOLLOWS ON THE
HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE...IMPACTING PRIMARILY NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR TO THE NORTH...BRINGING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

AS THE SECOND SYSTEM EXITS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND IT
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST...RESULTING IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
CLIMB...REACHING VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
A THREAT TO THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE EXISTS THAT THE TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED BY A STORM THROUGH
THAT TIME WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...CIGS BELOW 6000FT AGL AND
LIGHTNING BING THE PRIMARY THREATS. OUTSIDE OF THIS...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST PER NORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COOL UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY
WHILE MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTH. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WILENSKY
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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