Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 190303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
903 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA
AND MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BEGINNING A SHOW A BETTER
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DEFORMATION
AXIS APPEARS TO BE FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING.
THIS AXIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHICH SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATED SUNDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. FROM
THERE THE TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WILL BE FORCED ON A MORE NORTHEAST TRACK BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY. FOR UTAH THIS TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE A BIT OF A PUNCH
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...THOUGH MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL FOCUS ON THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...SIMILAR TRENDS IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAIN
LOCKED IN...AND 12Z ECMWF REMAINS 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER AT H7 THAN
THE GFS. SAID WAVE WILL SUPPORT MODEST MID LEVEL CAA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH FOCUS ON THE NORTH BUT THIS WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
OWING TO MINIMAL QPF IN GUIDANCE. WEAK FORCING COUPLED WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT IN PLACE DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH
SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AT OR JUST BELOW 8000 FEET BY DAWN. MAYBE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT THATS ABOUT IT. RAPID
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF SAID WAVE WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO BUILD
RAPIDLY BEHIND WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY...AND
COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR
THE DAY AS H7 VALUES WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO +1 C IN NORTH.

AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING HEIGHTS A PRECURSOR TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING
THAT WILL TAKE FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS...SPIKING ABOVE CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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