Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 251126
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
426 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA MIDWEEK...AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY)...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST HAS PRODUCED A STRONG AND RATHER
MOIST DOWNSTREAM NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. A MID-LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN A FAIRLY STRONG NEAR 700MB
WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THE STRONG LIFT LOW-
LEVEL GENERATED BY THE WARM FRONT COMBINED THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING SNOW BACK TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH RANGE TODAY. THIS SNOW ALONG WITH
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WERE THE BASIS FOR A WINTER ADVISORY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL HAVE PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES THIS MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMBING OVERNIGHT
WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
INITIAL PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE IN RT TO
THE DEW POINT SPREAD. EXPECTING THE PRECIP-TYPE TO COME AROUND TO
MOSTLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE MORNING AS THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH AND
WESTERN UINTA RANGES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ALONG THE RIDGES WILL
ALSO BE QUITE STRONG...BUT WITH LESS EXPECTED SNOW THE IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN OVER THE NORTHERN WASATCH RANGE. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING...BUT WITH
LIMITED NEW SNOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES MIDWEEK. A SERIES OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WILL SERVE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE
WEEK. MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE RESULTANT WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING...
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS THE COLD AIR REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING
EAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...CONTINUED SQUASHING OF THE RIDGE
USHERS IN A REGIME OF ZONAL MOIST FLOW FOR NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL GLANCE THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...ALLOWING PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN ACCOMPANYING
700 MB INFLUX OF COLD AIR WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THEN TAKES
CENTER STAGE AS IT ADVANCES ONSHORE MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS POINT...BUT ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS TROUGH
DELIVERING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE STATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 7000FT BETWEEN 12Z AND
14Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIX BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z...AFTER WHICH ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN
TO ALL RAIN AT THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY
BUT MAY BECOME ERRATIC DURING THE PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ007.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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