Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 311029
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
429 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY...AS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN HAS PUSHED A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST UT...WHILE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE ID
BORDER REGION...WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OWING TO A COMBINATION OF
JET DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DEEPER
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES...IS
GREATEST. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ANTICIPATE THE PRECIP THREAT WILL END BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE CONFINED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING IN
ADDITION TO THE WESTERN UINTAS/WASATCH RANGE. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN UT FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED SATURDAY...WHILE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
OF 12Z THURSDAY. THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH AXIS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND BRINGS IT ACROSS UTAH ON SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER UTAH ALLOWING FOR THE IMPORT OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF HISTORY TENDS TO REPEAT ITSELF THEN THE
GFS SOLUTION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF VERIFYING AS THIS PATTERN HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH AUGUST. DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
LONGER RANGE HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BEYOND
THURSDAY BUT COULD EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IS THE LEASE LIKELY.


&&

.AVIATION...MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN VALLEYS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THERE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THURSDAY. SEVERAL
DAYS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WHICH WILL AID IN
THE DRYING OF THE FUELS...ESPECIALLY THE FINE FUELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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