Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 031749 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1049 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH
THIS MORNING. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL CROSS UTAH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BACK EDGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DEPART THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR -32C...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING AN END TO ANY FLURRIES. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SPLITTING SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE FAIRLY DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE QUITE COLD...AS LOW AS -24F. THESE
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 20F THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES IN LOCATIONS WITH
DEEP SNOWPACK AND VERY COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES. ALSO MODIFIED
SKY...POP AND WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS 20F MAY BE
OVERLY AMBITIOUS.


&&

.AVIATION...THE 6000FT CEILING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY 20Z-21Z.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SAYS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AROUND 20Z-21Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/JEGLUM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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