Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 172203

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
403 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...One last storm system will cross northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming on Tuesday before high pressure returns for the
latter half of the week.


.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Friday)...A Pacific storm system is
lifting northeast out of the area this afternoon as the associated
cold front moves through southern Utah. Earlier precipitation has
weakened considerably, with just a few showers over northern Utah
and southwest Wyoming. This precip will continue to diminish into
the early evening, with a lull through overnight. Temperatures
have cooled noticeably behind the front over northern and central
Utah, with maxes running in excess of 10F below seasonal normals
across parts of northern Utah.

The final storm system of the series is on track to move across
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming during the day tomorrow,
bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air and another round of
valley rain/mountain snow, with the best coverage over northern
Utah. 12Z guidance is not quite as cool as model runs yesterday,
with the lowest 700 mb temps in the -4C to -5C range. This would
still keep snow levels around 7000 feet during the day Tuesday.
Precipitation will taper off Tuesday night/early Wednesday as the
system exits and strong high pressure moves in. This will allow a
warming trend to commence with dry conditions, lasting through
much of the rest of the week.


.LONG TERM (After 00Z Friday)...High pressure will be building
back into the eastern Great Basin at the start of the long term
period and will keep Friday mostly clear and dry. The stable
airmass could prevent the warm airmass aloft from mixing fully
into the valleys so max temps will likely not warm to their full
potential. The high shifts east on Sat and southwesterly flow
aloft picks up thru the weekend. This could assist the mixing in
the western valleys with temps warming a bit.

Variable high clouds cross the CWA Sat and Sun. Global guidance
indicates moisture starts to increase from the southwest Sun night
with the EC and GFS in better agreement than they have been, but
still differ on the details with the EC wetter.

Confidence is not very high yet on this solution so have just
introduced some low pops on Monday over the terrain for now. Temps
remain mild.


.AVIATION... Clearing skies and VFR conditions will prevail at KSLC
through the evening hours. Northwest winds should switch to
southerly around 02-03Z.




SHORT TERM...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Wilensky

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