Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 251057
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
457 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW IS DEEPENING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA.
THIS FLOW HAS BEEN BACKING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
DURING THE NIGHT GENERATING LIFT ABOVE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WAS LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT. THIS FEATURE HAS SHIFTING INTO
THE NRN CWA AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE CWA THIS AFTN
AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PICK UP TODAY.

THE UPPER TROF CLOSES INTO A LOW OVER NWRN NV THIS AFTN THEN
SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD THRU WED.

CONVECTION WAS ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH A
FEW STRONG CELLS CROSSING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UT AND REMAINS
ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTH AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THRU THE DAY AS LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING LOW INCREASES EVEN THO THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OFF TO
THE N.

MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE BACKING FLOW STARTS TO DRAW IT NWD THIS AFTN THRU THE NIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN UT THIS AFTN THEN CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW WORKS
SLOWLY E.

THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE UT NV
BORDER BY TUE EVE AND GENERATING BROAD LIFT IN A MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA TUE AFTN/EVE WITH STRONGER CELLS LIKELY GENERATING
HEAVY RAIN. IT APPEARS THE THREAT WITH BE GREATEST OVER THE SERN
CWA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE.

THE EC REMAINS SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
KEEPING IT OVER ERN UT AT 00Z THU WHILE THE GFS HAS IT OFF OVER
N-CENTRAL CO BY THAT TIME. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF
WRAPAROUND PRECIP WITH THE LOW BUT THE EC KEEPS THIS OVER A
LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA LONGER AND IS PREFERRED AS IT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AND THE
06Z GFS HAS GONE TOWARDS THE SLOWER EC.

RIDGING DRIES WRN UT THU AND FINALLY ARRIVES IN ERN UT ON FRI. THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SAT AS A BROAD UPPER TROF SETTLES INTO THE PACNW
AND NRN ROCKIES. THERE REMAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES ON SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF AND GENERATING CONVECTION FOR
OUR CWA BUT THE THREAT STARTS BY SAT AFTN AND CONTINUES THRU SUN
AND POSSIBLY INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
19-21Z BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL NOT
SHIFT AND REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...WILENSKY
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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