Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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396
FXUS65 KSLC 082230
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
330 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEST. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 110-155KT ANTICYCLONIC JET
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. GOES/HRRR/GPS/12Z SLC RAOB
INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.10"-0.20"
MOUNTAINS...TO 0.25"-0.33" NORTHERN VALLEYS.

WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE...MAIN CONCERN IS HAZE/FOG/STRATUS AND
TEMPERATURES. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF URBAN HAZE AS THERE IS NO
CHANCE OF MIXING OUT THE INVERSION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
MENTION OF FOG IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR DETERIORATING TRENDS AS THE INVERSION LEVEL
CONTINUES TO LOWER.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE INVERTED
VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (12Z THU-00Z MON)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE
REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT AND WEAK WINDS...VALLEY INVERSIONS...WITH THEIR ATTENDANT
HAZE AND PATCHY FOG...WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH
THE EC AND GFS BRING A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH IN THE
LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. IN THE EC SOLUTION 700MB
TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO AROUND -6C WITH MODERATE NW WINDS. THE
GFS IS WARMER AND LESS WINDY. PRECIP IS LIGHT TO NON- EXISTENT IN
BOTH MODELS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT THE WEEKEND TROUGH MAY NOT FULLY MIX THE MOST
ENTRENCHED VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE CACHE AND SALT LAKE...POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING INVERSIONS TO PERSIST BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 03Z
AT THE SLC TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
UNTIL 02-03Z WHEN VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO LOWER DUE TO HZ OR BR.
MINIMUM OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY WILL BE 2SM-3SM. THE PROBABILITY OF
LIFR CONDITIONS IS 10 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JEGLUM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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