Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
FXUS65 KSLC 131153
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
424 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving south along the
California coast will support continued light precip for portions of
Utah, though coming to an end by tonight. A drying trend will follow
into the weekend before an active pattern redevelops by the middle
of the week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 06z Sunday...The upper level low spinning
down the coast of Baja of California this morning per water
vapor satellite continues to entrain dry air into it while
kicking moisture from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Rockies. The baroclinic leaf feature noted on IR satellite
overnight from Nevada/Arizona/Utah and into Colorado continues to
shear off to the east, while a deformation zone stretches to its
west over northeast Nevada and northwest Utah. Temperatures
overnight have fluctuated very little and persisting snow and rain
showers have continued across far southern Utah. Have opted to leave
the existing winter weather headlines through late morning as some
areas of snow and related winter driving conditions continue for
central and southern Utah. Improving conditions expected thereafter.
As the upper low migrates farther south today, and then more
eastward Saturday, the flow aloft becomes light over our area.
Rising heights from the west with drier air and relative high
pressure will continue to build in today. As such, the active winter
weather pattern over the last week or so will come to an end for a
.LONG TERM (After 06z Sunday)...Models are in good agreement with
the track of the upper-level low to our south for the weekend,
sliding it across far western TX and the TX Panhandle by Sunday.
Wrap-around showers are expected to extend across the Four Corners
area and into southern Utah, though precip should be light and
mostly confined to the higher terrain as isentropic lift exits to
Elsewhere in Utah, quieter weather is expected by Sunday as colder
and drier northerly flow sets up over the area. Temperatures are
expected to drop to around 5-10 degrees below normal readings as the
colder air mass settles in. The NAM model does try to initiate a
shallow saturated layer at the surface across the West Deserts and
northern UT valleys Sunday, resulting in a low stratus deck and
flurries. The Canadian model hints at this as well. This solution
does not make much sense, however, given the drier upstream air
mass, so have kept the forecast dry for these areas.
Brief ridging Monday/Tuesday will likely set up weak temperature
inversions in northern valleys, which could cause some haze to
develop. This will be short-lived, however, as the active pattern
roars back to life across the Eastern Pacific. Yet another
atmospheric river will move into the Pacific Northwest, reaching our
area around midweek. This initial push will feature nearly due
westerly flow, which is not as favorable as recent atmospheric river
events for moisture traveling inland to our area due to upstream
mountain ranges. That said, a longwave trough does push inland by
later in the week, buckling the flow aloft to southwesterly and
likely allowing more moisture to reach our area. Thus, current
thinking is midweek will feature increasing clouds, dissipating
inversions, and light precip limited mostly to the higher terrain.
By late week, there is a potential for area-wide precipitation and
potentially colder air to push snow levels back to valley floors.
Then, right on the heels of that storm, models suggest yet another
wet and cold trough into next weekend. Bottom line, after a brief
break early next week, an active weather pattern will continue for
the foreseeable future.
.AVIATION...Ceilings at the KSLC terminal will continue to improve
during the TAF period. VFR conditions expected, with brief periods
of low stratus and MVFR cig/vis possible through 18z. Expecting
northerly winds to persist through the TAF period as well.
UT...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for UTZ010.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for UTZ011-
LONG TERM...Van Cleave
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