Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 272102
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
302 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.



&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 500MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF A 557DM CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS OVER UTAH IS
DRYING...BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DOING SO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE OFFSHORE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE
REABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED
RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. A VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH INTO
ALASKA WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE PACNW ON SATURDAY...BUT
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AND LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE GFS/CANADIAN BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WASATCH FRONT...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT SEEMS
LACKING AND THIS FEATURE IS DOWNPLAYED IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH A MEAN TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER UTAH. THE COASTAL
TROUGH AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ACT TO LIMIT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA MAY SEE A FEW
BANDS OF CIRRUS PUSH THROUGH...REMNANTS OF LANDFALLING SYSTEMS TO
OUR WEST...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY PLEASANT IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03-04Z. THIS SAID...A 10 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM TS ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHWEST. IF THIS OCCURS THEN NORTHWEST WINDS MAY LINGER THROUGH 04-
05Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL HELP INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. COMBINED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...PERIODS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THOUGH FUELS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE DISTRICT ARE NOT
CRITICAL. EXPECTED WINDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WHERE FUELS
ARE CRITICAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
SATURDAY...SO HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ
AVIATION...MERRILL
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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