Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 030342
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
942 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST OREGON...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND ENDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS AND FORM INTO A CLOSED
CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION THAT FIRED UP IN THE STILL MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS PRODUCED DEEP AND SOMEWHAT
PERSISTENT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FEEDING INTO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH GENERATED SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN KANE
AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLE AT MID-EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY THE MEAN LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL
FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST UTAH LATER IN THE
DAY. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN IN THESE AREAS
BASED ON THE WEAK MEAN LAYER FLOW AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE IN THE
AREA.

NORTHERN UTAH COULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AGAIN FRIDAY AT
THAT AREA OF THE STATE REMAINS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. COULD SEE A FEW CELLS WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH LATE IN
THE DAY...BUT DOUBT THAT SUSTAINED ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP.

LOOKING AT A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN UTAH SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH REFORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOOKING AT A MODEST COOLING
TREND OWING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS AT MID-EVENING WILL WORK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE BETWEEN 04Z AND 05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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