Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 211301
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
601 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MILD AND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
A COOLER BUT DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z THU)...THE VERY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT
IS UNDER WAY AND EXPECT CONSIDERABLE WATER AMOUNTS TO FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT UPSTREAM VALLEYS THRU TONIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE NOT RISEN MUCH YET THIS MORNING WITH IMPACTS ON
TRAVEL ON THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASSES AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND PARK CITY. THIS SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY AS SNOW LEVELS RISE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO CROSS THE CWA FROM THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MON. MODELS DO SHOW PRECIP OVER
THE NORTH WINDING DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT BUT COULD SEE SHOWERY
PRECIP CONTINUE THRU THE DAY MON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DOES SHIFT
SOUTH WITH THIS FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. WATER AMOUNTS WILL
BE LESS THAN OVER THE NORTH BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
IMPACT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COMBINED WITH WIND TO KEEP THE
EXISTING WARNING.

THE WINDS SHOULD GET STRONG ACROSS WY AS WELL TODAY LASTING THRU
TONIGHT AND THE CURRENT WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIP
HAS ALSO BEGUN AS SNOW HERE TOO AND THIS WILL CREATE LOCAL HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN SNOW LEVELS RISE.

THE EVENT SHOULD END BY MON EVE WITH DRY COLD NORTHERLY FLOW MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ADVANCES AND PROMOTES
INVERSION DEVELOPMENT FOR TUE INTO WED. THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF
THE WSW LATER WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...PACIFIC TROUGH SPEEDS TOWARD UTAH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH PRIMARILY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MODEL
AGREEMENT MOVING A BIT MORE IN LINE AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION NUDGES
TOWARD THE GFS IN WEAKENING THE DURATION AND IMPACT OF THE
STORM...WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES MATCHING UP AT A LOW OF 15C. LATEST
GFS RUN HAS SLOWED THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION...WAITING TILL FOLKS ARE SETTLED IN AT GRANDMAS HOUSE LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSING MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.
LOWERED VALLEY POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND KEPT THEM IN FOR
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER NORTHERN UTAH TERRAIN INTO
FRIDAY. RIDGING BUILDS RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR VSBY AS WELL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>010-517.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WILENSKY
LONG TERM...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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