Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 011019
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
419 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN UTAH- ARIZONA BORDER HAS ADVANCED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND WILL NOW BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY. THERE
STILL REMAINS DRY AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS INSURGENCE OF
MOISTURE SO ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
THERE IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH HAS BUMPED THE FLASH FLOOD
FORECAST FOR SOME AREAS OF SOUTHERN UTAH TO MODERATE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH
FROM ABOUT CEDAR CITY LINE SOUTHWARD TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER NORTH THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL
START TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
AND CONTINUED THEM THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH WETTING
RAINS MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE
CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UT MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS AZ/NM. WITH THE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE RESULTING IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UT WHILE THE
SOUTH REMAINS LARGELY DRY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH
WOULD PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT...DISCREPANCIES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS LOW...AND SUBSEQUENT TIMING OF ANY
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...THEN INCLUDED PRIMARILY TERRAIN BASED POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS THE MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
QUICKLY SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 18Z TODAY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WINDS SWITCHING EARLIER. NO OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR
TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER UTAH BUT HAS SLIPPED A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES OF 495-498 TODAY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF 495 AND 496 AS WELL AS ADJACENT ZONES HAVE A CHANCE OF DRY
LIGHTNING AS MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
UTAH...EXCEPT MOST OF THE SALT LAKE DESERT REGION. DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL FIRE WEATHER ZONES BUT MORE LIKELY WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUTHWOLF/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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