Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 202132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
332 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the area through Friday.
Southwesterly flow will develop over the weekend with moisture
spreading into the region starting Sunday.


.SHORT TERM (Thru 00Z Monday)...High pressure is centered over
NV this aftn with some cirrus streaming over the ridge and
dissipating as it moves south thru nrn UT.

The airmass aloft has be warmed today but it is also very stable
with most valleys only reaching the low 60s so far this aftn.

The ridge axis shifts over UT tonight and this will shunt the
cirrus nwd and away from the area with skies clearing overnight.
The warmer airmass however should keep min temps a bit warmer
than last night and any places that do dip below freezing would be
those that already have frozen, so no freeze highlights are

The warming aloft is forecast to continue through tomorrow as the
ridge axis shifts east of the CWA then temps remain steady, but
expect some additional warming at the surface on Sat as the
increasing swly flow aloft mixes down wiping out the valley
inversions. Temps Sun look similar to, or a tad cooler than Sat
as clouds begin to increase.

Still looks like moisture will start to spread into the CWA on
this swly flow starting Sun and have kept the low pops in the srn
mtns for the aftn.

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Monday)...Moisture continues to push into
Utah from the south Sunday night and Monday, with cloud cover
and the chance of precipitation increasing significantly through
this time. Have increased POPs through Monday, and they will
likely need to be increased further once models come into a little
better agreement about the placement of this precipitation.

The weak shortwave that accompanies this moisture surge looks to
push off to the northeast Tuesday morning, though some shower
activity could linger across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday,
especially across the far northern portions of the CWA.

A warming and drying trend is expected heading into Wednesday
night and Thursday, as models have come into better agreement
about a higher amplitude ridge building over the Rockies. This
drying could be short-lived, however, as another Pacific trough is
currently forecast to slide through the Great Basin as early as
Thursday night.


.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns at the SLC terminal will
remain minimal through the TAF period. Winds will shift back to the
southeast around 03-04Z.




SHORT TERM...Wilensky

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