Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 231124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
524 AM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUESDAY)...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
WENDOVER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
WRAPPING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT LIFTS NEWD THRU THE NRN CWA. GUSTY
WINDS OVER 45 MPH ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LAST ONCE THE BAND LIFTS PAST.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE NRN CWA THRU THE
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE WASATCH FRONT AROUND MIDDAY AND EXPECT A SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND THAT TIME WITH PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND THESE FEATURES.

MODELS INSIST WEST TO NW WINDS BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE NW DESERTS
BY MIDDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVE
BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS COULD REACH WARNING LEVELS AROUND
WENDOVER AND OVER THE WESTERN SALT FLATS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AREA THRU 8PM FOR THESE EXPECTED WINDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6000 FT IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTN
BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS BELOW ABOUT
7500 TO 8000 FT. THIS IS ABOVE THE SUMMITS OF MOST OF THE MAJOR
ROUTES THRU THE NRN MTNS AND HELD OFF ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW IMPACT. THERE COULD BE UP TO A
FOOT OF NEW SNOW IN THE WASATCH OFF PAVEMENT HOWEVER.

EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN THIS EVE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT PAC TROF STARTS TO SPREAD PRECIP
INTO FAR WRN UT SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH PRECIP LOOKING TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MON AS
THIS LOW EDGES INTO UT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...THE PACIFIC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY LOOK GOOD INITIALLY BUT EC/GFS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
WILL START TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH COULD LIMIT
ASSOCIATED PRECIP. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ON THE HIGH
SIDE...LIMITING IMPACTS. GOING POP GRIDS COVERED THE THREAT FROM
THIS SYSTEM WELL SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES.

WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A RELATIVE LULL
IN PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN. GLOBAL MODELS INITIALLY ROTATE THE
SYSTEM INTO ARIZONA ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING THE CENTER OF THE LOW
INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH BY FRIDAY. WHILE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
FOCUS OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK IN THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EVEN AFTER DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL OCCASIONALLY
CAUSE PERIODS OF ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ005.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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