Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 141714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1014 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The upper level low pressure system off the California
coast will turn back to the east and weaken as it moves through
Arizona and southern Utah this evening. The next weather
disturbance will move into Utah from the Pacific Northwest late
tonight into Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...Fairly benign morning across the CWA as the next in
a series of relatively weak systems begin to impact the area. An
upper level trough is currently crossing through the Pacific
Northwest. A remnant upper level low is offshore southern
California and will cross the Southwest today into this evening.
This will bring at least moderately enhanced Pacific moisture,
though the primary beneficiary of this moisture will be
southeastern Utah and perhaps Colorado.

As the trough approaches that area this afternoon into this
evening, precipitation is expected to develop. Expect orographic
enhancement to the precipitation, particularly tonight into
Thursday. Will evaluate the need for a winter weather advisory for
the mountains with the afternoon package.

Main update this morning was to adjust winds toward current trends
this afternoon. Otherwise, going forecast is on track and no
additional updates are anticipated.


.AVIATION...Winds at the SLC terminal are expected to increase from
the south-southwest around 18-20Z, then switch to the west-northwest
around 21-23Z. However, there is a 30 percent chance that winds
remain southerly through 00Z. There is also a slight chance that
ceilings drop below 7000 feet before 00Z, but it is more likely that
ceilings remain above that level through at least 04Z.





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