Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 081015
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
415 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL TURN MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF
UTAH BY MIDWEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHEAST
OREGON REMAINS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN A MOIST AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTH AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST GOES PWAT
IMAGERY PLACES THE 1.00+ INCH PWAT VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL
UTAH. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GAINING
A MORE SOUTH-TO-NORTH ORIENTATION.

LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF UTAH AS A SERIES OF
WEAK BUT EFFECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PRECISE TIMING OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE IS USUALLY SUSPECT
THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THE DRIER AIR INTRODUCED OVER
SOUTHWEST UTAH BY THE GFS LOOKS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE...SO WILL
STICK WITH A SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST ECMWF SOLUTION HEADING INTO
FRIDAY. WILL ALSO BE TRENDING MAX TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AFTER
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...A FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR JULY
CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z EC AND
THE 00Z GFS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN JUST HOW MUCH DRYING
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE 00Z GFS FEATURES A VERY DRY PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THE 00Z EC STARTS TO
BUILD MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWESTWARD AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY...WITH A MAJOR MONSOONAL PUSH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN THE LARGE DISCREPANCY...DECIDE TO INCREASE POPS A BIT AS A
NOD TOWARD THE EC SOLUTION. GIVEN THE DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS...
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH...REACHING MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL/WETTING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN
18-20Z. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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