Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 190340
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WORKING INTO UTAH FROM THE WEST WILL REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HELD TOGETHER AS IT DRIFTED EAST INTO
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION APPEARED TO HAVE
SOME ORGANIZATION AROUND A WEAK VORTICITY MAX DEPICTED IN BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM. THIS FEATURE TRIES TO HOLD TOGETHER IN THE
GUIDANCE...THOUGH RADAR SIGNATURES SUGGESTS WEAKEN OF THE
CONVECTION IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE. SUSPECT THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-END POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH IN THE PATH OF THIS
FEATURE.

THE TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PWAT VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN UTAH SATURDAY...THEN EXPANDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT FINDING ANY WELL-DEFINED
DYNAMIC SYSTEMS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT WOULD INDICATE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MUCH BETTER
DAYS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN/WESTERN
DURING THE DAY.

PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH AGAIN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MINIMAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL START TO CREEP BACK
INTO THE SOUTH HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
UTAH AT MID-EVENING HAS GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL TOOELE COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING. SUSPECT THAT A WIND
SHIFT WILL STILL MAKE IT TO THE KSLC TERMINAL AROUND 06Z...THEN
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 09-11Z. SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT GENERATED THIS OUTFLOW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY DIRECT
IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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