Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 201615

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1015 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure aloft across the plains states
with an upper level trough along the Pacific Northwest coast will
keep the Great Basin under a warm southwest flow aloft through
Thursday. Moisture will remain over southern and eastern Utah.
through Thursday, with drier air spreading west across Utah
beginning late Friday.


.DISCUSSION...The forecast area remains under southwest flow this
morning in between the high over the central United States and the
trough over the Pacific Northwest. Deep moisture is over southern
and eastern Utah, where satellite derived PWs are in excess of 1.0
inch. Northwest Utah is much drier, with PWs around 0.3 to 0.4.
Instability remains on the weak side today, so afternoon
convection will be primarily terrain induced, though the deep
moisture will allow for some developing over southeast Utah as
well. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, with maxes around
5F above seasonal norms. Over southern Utah, maxes will be closer
to climo.

The pattern over the area is expected to change little through
tomorrow. Weak vorticity moving up from Arizona may allow for a
bit better instability over southeast Utah, so coverage of
afternoon/evening convection may be a bit greater. By Friday, the
Pacific Northwest trough will be on the move, moving north of the
area through Saturday. This will shift the flow to a more westerly
direction, allowing the pool of moisture over southeast Utah to
spread westward Friday before drier air moves in on Saturday. The
passage of the trough will also cool temperatures over northern
Utah, but allow temperatures to warm over southern Utah.

No updates expected to the forecast this morning.


.AVIATION...At the SLC terminal, gusty southerly winds will
persist through the early afternoon with some gusts in excess of
30 mph. Winds are expected to shift to the northwest between 20Z
and 22Z, but there is a 30 percent chance that southerly winds
will continue through the afternoon.


.FIRE WEATHER...Deeper moisture remains in place across the east
this morning as a trough remains to our northwest and an elongated
high exists to the southeast. Minimal change in the this pattern is
expected through Thursday, but thereafter it will evolve in a
manner where the high will expand west into southern California
placing the area within a drier west to northwesterly flow aloft
Friday into early next week. Surface humidity will remain near
bone dry each day with only modestly breezy southerly winds
across the west through Thursday, then a shallow and dry cool
front will track in from the northwest limiting winds for the
weekend while providing subtle cooling.


.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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