Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 211734
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1134 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will spread back into much of the forecast
area today into Monday. An upper level disturbance will interact
with this moisture as it crosses the region Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper level ridge axis remains in place over the
Great Basin this morning. Deeper moisture creeps north today with
precipitable water values rising to .75" to .90" across the
southern third of Utah. SPC mesoanalysis indicates that SBCAPE
values have to 500+ J/kg across far Utah as of 17Z. However, about
75 J/kg of CIN remains in place although this should erode over
the next two hours. NCAR ensemble indicates that SBCAPE values
will climb to 750+ J/kg this afternoon. Anticipate that convection
will develop over the high terrain and then drift over adjacent
valleys. With dry low levels still in place, surface dewpoints
generally range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s across southern
Utah, don`t anticipate much in the way of heavy rain. However,
the storms will be slow moving, so a localized heavy rain
producing cell is not out of the question. With little deep layer
shear present do not anticipate a threat of organized severe
storms although strong gusty winds will be possible with the dry
boundary layer in place. Both the HRRR and NCAR ensemble mean
indicate that remnants from convection this afternoon coalesce
into an area of precip which propagates south through Utah`s Dixie
this evening.

Otherwise, temperatures will be about five degrees warmer than
they were yesterday across northern Utah. With extensive cloud
cover lifting north into southern Utah from convection over
northern Arizona anticipate that temperatures will be a bit cooler
across southern Utah this afternoon.

Made only minor adjustments to the grids for sky cover trends.

&&

.AVIATION...Southerly winds at the SLC terminal are expected to
shift to the northwest between 19-20Z. Otherwise, mostly clear skies
will continue.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Graham
AVIATION...Kruse

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For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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