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000
FXUS65 KSLC 112154
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL GRAZE NORTHERN
UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A DRY FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
EARLIER IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN IDAHO IN ITS WAKE...AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE DRIFTED INTO NORTHERN UTAH. THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TO KEEP SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ABOUT 10F ABOVE
CLIMO. SOUTHERN UTAH REMAINS QUITE WARM AS WELL...WITH MAXES
RUNNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WARMING OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN MAXES 5F WARMER THAN TODAYS VALUES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT LEAST BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS
ARE DRY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL SPREAD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO HIT THE GROUND.

THE NEXT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING A MOSTLY DRY FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH. AS A
RESULT...MAXES ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO...AND MORE LIKE 10F ABOVE THOSE VALUES FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBOUND
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY REBOUND. GFS/EC SHOW SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
THE RIDGE...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIRMASS MIGHT BE TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN
03-04Z. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
OUTFLOW WINDS AFTER 00-01Z THAT COULD DELAY SAID SHIFT AN HOUR OR
TWO THIS EVENING. IF THESE OUTFLOWS DEVELOP GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW RH AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 497 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY UNTIL 10 PM
THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS VERY WARM AND DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS. OVERNIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE
FAIR TO POOR AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY
WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAKING
THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS EAST WITH IT TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER.
IT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY (4-12% VALLEY RH). THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT
WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL OFF TODAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL UTAH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP TOMORROW AS ANOTHER STORM DROPS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE WHERE
FUELS ARE CRITICAL. IT WILL TREND WARMER AND REMAIN DRY TOMORROW
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.

THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH CONTINUES THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
COOL FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST UTAH LATE IN THE DAY...AND
SETTLES INTO CENTRAL UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER
ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH...ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
ABOUT AS DRY AS IT GETS...WITH A WARMING TREND AND STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ497.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)