Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 180351
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
950 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPREAD DEEP MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
EVENING KEPT A DRY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER UTAH. A POCKET
OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALLOWED A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST UTAH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE HAVE NOW DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TOMORROW
AS A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW COAST SLIDES SOUTHWARD.
THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY OVER UTAH WHICH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY...EXPECT
MAINLY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH AND THE HIGH TERRAIN. MOISTURE WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HELP DRIVE INCREASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. BEST GUESS IS THIS DRIER AIR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOTE THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK OWING TO THE UNCERTAIN TRACK OF THE
WEST-COAST CLOSED LOW.

NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR MASS OVER REGION TONIGHT WILL YIELD TO AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MIDDAY MONDAY. SOUTHERN UTAH WITH SEE AN INCREASE
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST VALLEYS AND EVEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SURGE WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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