Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 270253
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
853 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND
IMPACT THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CHURNS
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THEREAFTER INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CENTER OF COLD CORE SYSTEM OVER SAN FRANCISCO AREA
WHILE TROUGH STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS SEEN IN IR
SATELLITE. THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OBSERVED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING THAT OCCURRED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ALNG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE LOCALLY STRONG ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTH PAST HALF AN HOUR...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIKELY IN INTENSITY AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS WESTERN/NORTHERN
UTAH FALLS UNDER THE DIFFLUENT SECTOR OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION
ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT THE ONSET OF THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST NEVADA AT THIS TIME. THIS
AREA SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A BAND OF PRECIPITATION...LIKELY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...OVER WESTERN UTAH FROM ST GEORGE TO ABOUT
DELTA BEGINNING BETWEEN 3 AND 6AM AND THEN SHIFT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD
REACHING THE WASATCH FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BAND BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE EAST OF THIS BAND AS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM. SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AS THAT
AREA WILL BE MOST PRONE DUE TO THE SLICK ROCK COUNTRY AS WELL AS
IN BURN SCARS ANYWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE
0.50 TO 2 INCHES AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY MORE
POSSIBLE.

PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING
THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
LIKELY IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOWERING
BELOW 7K FT IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ010-012>016-
     019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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