Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 281007
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
407 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND MOST NOTABLE
TODAY...BUT EXTENDING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SMALL THREAT FOR HIGH
BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN SATURDAY...WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NV
POTENTIALLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST UT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN UT SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA BY 10-20 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD. COOLING ALOFT WILL
KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...MOST NOTABLY
ACROSS NORTHERN UT. A DRY AND SEASONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z TUESDAY)...A REMARKABLY CONSISTENT PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DRY OUT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT LINGERING MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND REPLACED BY DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE ONLY REAL
FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE WORK WEEK IS WHETHER A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IDAHO.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT COOLING...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER LIGHT WINDS TODAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. COMBINED WITH LOWERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...THE FUELS IN
MOST ZONES ACROSS THE STATE ARE NOT CONSIDERED CRITICALLY DRY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE
SWITCH OCCURS AS LATE AS 21Z. ANY OTHER WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL...WITH TODAYS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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