Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KSLC 181101
AFDSLC
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MILD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EJECTING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. IT
IS THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK SHOWERS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
LARGER TROUGH.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG...IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT
AND FORM A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER TOMORROW WHILE A MEAN RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
TOMORROW WHILE THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AND VARY LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BOTH THE RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE 8C
700MB TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST UTAH AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEAST IN FAVOR OF A TRAILING FEATURE WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE
FARTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THESE TWO WAVES...BUT NEITHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR LIFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...NEITHER THE
GFS NOR EC ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF COOLING. FOR THE
TIME BEING...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 9-10KFT.

AFTER THAT...A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 18-20Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN ARIZONA HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER BY SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH. THOUGH
PRIMARILY WEAK FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AMPLE MIXING
DEPTHS WILL FACILITATE ACCEPTABLE CLEARING INDICES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT ONLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IMPROVING INDICES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.