Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 191624
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1024 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA AND
MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICT A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AN UPPER LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER
REGION. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH GOES
DERIVED PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 0.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SATURDAYS OBSERVED MAXES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD
OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY. THE
STRONGEST UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ASCENT ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPPER JET ALONG
THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF THE PASSING TROUGH...AND AN INFLUX OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

UPDATED GRIDS TO TWEAK SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS TO NOTE AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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