Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 300434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
934 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A cold northerly flow over the area tonight will give
way to weak high pressure on Wednesday. The next storm system
will begin to spread into northern Utah Wednesday night and slowly
cross the region through Friday morning.


.DISCUSSION...A cold northerly flow is over the forecast area
this evening on the upstream side of the deep trof that crossed
the region yesterday and is moving thru the plains. A cold pocket
over ern NV and wrn UT has been generating extensive stratocumulus
and a few snow showers are noted on radar north of the Great Salt

Expect the threat of isolated light snow showers to continue over
portions of wrn UT under the cloud deck until warming aloft shuts
it down later tonight. Altho a skinny band of light snow has
recently formed over the nw end of the lake, it no longer looks
like it will make it much further south and the threat of lake
effect snow in Tooele and Salt Lake valleys is now very small. It
is more likely that any light snow could end up drifting off to
the northeast of the lake as the low level flow backs around to
wly or even a little swly late tonight thru Wed morning.

The small threat of light snow looks to persist over the far nrn
CWA thru midday Wed as weak warm advection forms ahead of the next
trof. This next wave sags a weak cold front into the nrn CWA after
midnight Wed night. The airmass will be cold enough for any precip
to be all snow with light snow spreading south across the nrn CWA
before sunrise and into central UT by mid morning. Expect sub
surface temps will have chilled down to near freezing by then so
the snow could stick to cold untreated roads and even light
amounts will create travel impacts. This could affect the morning
commute along the Wasatch Front.

This wave is forecast to split strongly Thu night into Fri but
models have not locked into a solution yet on just where it splits
so confidence remains low on the eventual distribution of precip
from this wave.

Flat ridging returns for Sat but low level warm advection looks
like it will bring clouds and a potential for light precip back
to the nrn CWA by Sat aftn. The next cold front should arrive Sun
night with potentially heavy snow.

Updated earlier to make the threat of isolated snow showers more
widespread across the western CWA, then again to lower the threat
of lake snow south of the lake and keep it going overnight to the
northeast. No additional updates planned.


.AVIATION...Southerly winds will prevail at the KSLC terminal
through the night and into Wednesday. Occasional cigs around 8000
ft are possible through about 14z with a 20 percent chance cigs
briefly dip to 5000 to 6000 ft.





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