Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 091114
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
414 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VALLEY FOG TO THIS POINT HAS REMAINED LIMITED IN AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH MOST OF THIS FOG IN THE CACHE VALLEY...NEAR THE
GSL AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. WILL LIKELY SEE THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG EXPAND A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT PUTS MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN UTAH. URBAN HAZE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THICKENING/EXPANSION OF THE HAZE AS POLLUTION LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHOW SLIGHT WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WOULD BE TO GENERATE HIGH CLOUDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN
TEMPS. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY CLIMB A BIT DUE TO THE WARMER START
IN THE MORNING. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DUE
TO LESS RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...BOTH THE EC AND GFS BRING A WEAK
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH IN THE EARLY SATURDAY (EC)
OR LATE SATURDAY (GFS) TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC AND IS JUST SHY OF BEING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH ABOUT 16-17 DEGREES C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5. THE MODEL
RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN OVER THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE VARIATIONS
IN MODELS SOLUTIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE IDEA OF ERASING THE
INVERSIONS IN NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z. SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
19Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BCFG TEMPORARILY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST END OF 34L RUNWAY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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