Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 160424

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1024 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front will move through northern Utah
tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure will return for
Friday through the first half of the weekend. A more active
pattern is expected to develop for early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Upper level ridge over the eastern Great Basin today
is shifting east into the high plains tonight. Warm advection in
southwest flow today resulted in numerous record highs across the
state. Weak system moving through the northern intermountain
region will nudge a cold front into northern Utah tonight. System
has very anemic large scale forcing associated with it and the
mid-level baroclinic quickly lays out west to east across
northern Utah on Thursday. There is some limited convergence along
the mid level baroclinic zone, but this quickly erodes on
Thursday as the boundary stalls. HRRR and other hi-res guidance
not impressed with the system and are producing very little
precipitation in far northern. May see an isolated shower or a
few sprinkles in the far north, primarily over the higher terrain,
later tonight through Thursday, but that is about it.

With lowering height and cooler mid level temperatures across the
state in the wake of the departing upper level ridge temperatures
will drop back a bit tomorrow. While high temperatures will be
about 10 degrees cooler on Thursday across northern Utah they will
still be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Upper level ridge will
then quickly rebound and warm advection begins anew on Thursday
night. Anticipate another run at record highs across the state for
Saturday ahead of another approaching shortwave.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at the SLC terminal
through the TAF period. Southeast winds are expected to continue
through the morning with the switch to northwest winds expected
between 1800-2000 UTC. However, there is a 30 percent chance that
the switch to northwest winds will occur before 1800 UTC.





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