Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 161603

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1003 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A series of fast-moving Pacific storm systems will
continue to impact mainly northern Utah and southwest Wyoming
through the first half of the week. High pressure will return for
the latter half of the week.


.DISCUSSION...A cold front is stalled near a KENV-KSLC-KEVW line
this morning and a broad area of rain with high elevation snow has
developed along and behind this boundary over northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming. Skies are partly cloudy to mostly clear over
central and southern Utah in a drier airmass ahead of the
boundary. However, winds are starting to pick up, particularly
over southwest Utah where a few gusts in excess of 40 mph have
been observed. Broad wind advisory remains in effect across much
of central and southern Utah to cover this threat.

The initial wave that brought the cold front through is ejecting
to the northeast. The main system will slide onshore today and
tonight before moving across northern and central Utah Monday.
The mid-level frontal boundary is progged to retreat just a bit
northward, as will the southern extent of the precipitation this
afternoon. Think precip coverage may wane a bit late this
morning/early this afternoon before refiring along the boundary as
additional shortwave energy moves in and good jet support
approaches. With the arrival of the main trough into northwest
Utah early tomorrow, the front should be on the move again,
reaching central Utah by Monday afternoon. Areal coverage of
precip will increase at this point, spreading across the vast
majority of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. 12Z NAM/GFS as
well as the 00Z ECMWF indicating a bit colder of a system than
model runs yesterday, with 700mb temps now expected to drop into
the -4C to -5C range by early Monday afternoon which would put
snow levels at the 6500-7000 foot range near the UT/ID border.
Precip is expected to become more showery in nature Monday
afternoon before another lull Monday night/early Tuesday.

The final storm system in the series is on track to move through
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming during the day Tuesday. Global
models have come into good agreement with this system, with the EC
now showing the more moist solution the GFS had been consistently
showing. Overall this system is weaker than the one approaching
but could still bring some decent precip. 700 mb temps as low as
-6C become more widespread, bringing maxes up to 10F below
seasonal normals over northern Utah, with southern Utah staying
near climo. Strong high pressure is then expected to build over
the forecast area for the middle to latter part of the week.

Updated the forecast earlier to adjust morning POPs and sky with
current trends. No additional updates planned.


.AVIATION...A northerly wind should prevail into the evening hours
at KSLC, though there is a 20 percent chance of a brief shift to a
southerly wind after 20Z, as frontal boundary remains in vicinity of
area.  A moderate southerly flow will develop late tonight.  Area of
light rain should shift east of KSLC by 17Z, but could see showers
in the vicinity of KSLC. VFR conditions will prevail, but could see
a brief period of a celling below 7000 feet with shower activity
through 17z.


UT...Wind Advisory until 9 AM MDT Monday for UTZ004-008-010-013>016-




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