Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 220408

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1008 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weak weather disturbances will impact
Utah through Wednesday. A stronger and significantly colder Pacific
storm system will move east across the Great Basin Wednesday
night through Thursday, followed by a return of high pressure for
the end of the work week.


.DISCUSSION...Cold front has moved into northwest Utah this
evening and has been kicking up winds in the 35-40 mph range as it
does so. A meso size surface high has formed in the rain cooled
air over northeast Nevada this evening with pressure rises of
nearly 5 mb in the past three hours. This pressure rise is aiding
the cold front to advance across the northwest desert. At this
point it appears that it will make it to the central and northern
Wasatch Front before running out of support. The ARW3G and ARW3N
show winds at SLC switching to northwest by 2am while the HRRR and
RAP do not. Believe this shallow push will reach the Salt Lake
valley by around midnight and allow temperatures to fall to
forecast lows of near 50. Farther north, the cooler air will move
across the northern Wasatch Front and into the Cache Valley prior
to midnight.

The GFS shows that the 700mb cold advection supporting the
advancement of the cold front this evening washes out by about 3am
and transitions to warm advection already between 6am and 9am
across northwest Utah.

The increase in PoPs across the CWA looks good for Wednesday as
this trough aloft sharpens up and takes on a more neutral to
negative tilt. The jet axis moves overhead Wednesday afternoon
and then splits into two segments; one over southeast Idaho into
montana and the other stretching from off northern Baja to the
four corners region. This jet couplet will be favorable for lift
over the CWA late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Current forecast
on track with increased PoPs during this time frame.

Current package in good shape and no updates needed.


.AVIATION...South winds are expected at the SLC terminal through
about 06-07Z before switching to northwest briefly behind a cold
front. Showers are expected in the vicinity of SLC after 06Z but
cigs should remain above 7000 ft AGL. South winds should return
between 14 and 16Z.





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