Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 270954
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE OFF TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE. AS SUCH WOULD ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO LIMITED IN
COVERAGE AND LARGELY TERRAIN BASED THIS AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY...ALLOWING A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MAY ALSO RESULT
IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN UT. BY SUNDAY AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...A FAIRLY STEADY PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH A MEAN TROUGH
PERSISTING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SETS UP A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...LIKELY LEADING TO BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH...AND
HOW MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED EAST INTO COLORADO. FOR
NOW...HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DRY UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT.

HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF A SLOW DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MEAN TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND
THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO PUSH SOME COOLER AIR INTO
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TOMORROW...LEADING TO A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
LINGERING THIS MORNING THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY BECOMING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COMBINED WITH A MOSTLY DRY
AIRMASS...PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY ONWARD...THOUGH FUELS ARE CURRENTLY CONSIDERED
MOIST IN MOST UTAH LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z TODAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL TODAY...WITH A MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME OF 20Z TO 23Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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