Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 121639

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
939 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system off the coast of northwest
Mexico will keep moisture and instability over southern Utah
through Monday. High pressure aloft to the west of Utah will
bring a dry and stable air mass to northern Utah early in the
week, then across the remainder of the region midweek. A more
active weather pattern is in store for the latter portion of the
upcoming week.


.DISCUSSION...The center of a Pacific low is approaching Baja
California this morning. Associated moisture and instability
remains over southern Utah, resulting in a persistent area of
precipitation. Meanwhile, seeing mostly clear conditions over
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming as a drier and more stable
airmass has developed. The easterly flow across the area is
resulting in some breezy canyon winds in some prone areas of
northern Utah, which should continue through the afternoon.

The low is progged to slowly track east across northern Mexico
through tomorrow before moving into Texas on Tuesday. As it does
so, the focus of the moisture and shortwave energy over southern
Utah will shift east and diminish. By Monday evening, the system
will have moved east of the area, effectively ending the threat of
precip. Behind this system, ridging is progged to build in through
midweek, resulting in a drying trend with upper level warming. The
ridge is then expected to shift east by Thursday as the first in a
series of storm systems approaches the area. This active pattern
should persist through at least the upcoming weekend.

No updates expected to the forecast this morning.


.HYDROLOGY...As of 800 AM, the Bear River at Corinne was flowing
at 6707 CFS. The flow will continue to increase, and the latest
forecast calls for the gauge at Corinne to exceed flood stage by this
evening. However, the Bear River just below the Cutler Dam likely
currently at or exceeding flood stage. A flood warning remains in
effect through midday Wednesday.




.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns will remain minimal at the
KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Light and variable winds
(mostly northerly) will become a prevailing northwest greater than 7
knots between 17-18z, remaining in place for the remainder of the
day thereafter.





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