Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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263
FXUS65 KSLC 032319
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
419 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS UTAH ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...SUNNY SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
MOST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS OVER THE WASATCH RANGE AND
THE CACHE VALLEY. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE CWA. THESE
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN BASINS WITH GOOD SNOW COVER. THIS CLEARING
WILL BE SHORT- LIVED HOWEVER...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THIS INCOMING TROUGH IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT SHOULD STILL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. THOUGH SOME PREVIOUS RUNS HAD SPLIT AND WEAKENED THIS
TROUGH OVER NEVADA OR UTAH...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSOLIDATED AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RIDGING RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD END ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM MAY BE HOW FAR SOUTH
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS ON SATURDAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
KEPT THIS WAVE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT A COUPLE GFS RUNS
HAVE BROUGHT THE SHORTWAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS
IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS STORM SHOULD
BE A BRUSH-BY AT BEST. THIS TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SHOWING
A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME AS
H7 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +4C BY TUESDAY WHILE VALLEYS WILL
MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT. CIGS AOB 6000FT WILL RETURN AFTER ABOUT 11-12Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 14-15Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A
20% CHANCE OF A TEMPORARY SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 00-02Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...CHENG
AVIATION...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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