Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 231633
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1033 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST
CENTRAL UTAH WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW EAST NORTHEAST TRACK INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY
SETTLE OVER THE STATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE WARM
ADVECTION WRAP AROUND BAND ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST
UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS THERMALLY-DRIVEN LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VALLEY
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
TERRAIN-INDUCED PRECIP ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY IN THIS CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

MODESTLY DRIER AIR ENTRAINED ALONG THE EAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW
RESULTED IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL
FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND GOOD EARLY HEATING SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD EXIST ALONG THE NORTHER FLANK OF THE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON.

A RATHER MOIST AND STILL MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW SUNDAY. DYNAMIC FORCING OF LIFT
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK DURING THE DAY...SO CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE TERRAIN-TIED. THE 12Z GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
UTAH LATE IN THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE NATURE OF THE AMBIENT AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE TO EXPECTED THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION A BIT
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER
THE STATE. SUSPECT THAT WITH DECENT DAYTIME HEATING THAT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.

ISSUED AN EARLIER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE SHORT TERM POPS/QPFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
SLC TERMINAL WITH THE CIGS PRIMARILY ABOVE 7000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS WILL LOWER CIGS BELOW 6000 FT AGL
AFTER 19Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS COULD SHIFT AS EARLY AS 18-19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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