Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 111516
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
916 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A COLD
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AS TEMPS ALOFT
WARM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...THOUGH
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE THICKEST CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO
NORTHERN UTAH UNTIL THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW...KICKING OFF
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. A STRONGER...COLDER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL
CROSS NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN UTAH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 20 DEGREES BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...WEAK RIDGE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHEAST OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE
WEST COAST. DEFORMATION CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS BEEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND HAS REACHED FAR SWRN UT WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER.

THE WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT YESTERDAY SPREADS
NORTH TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS RISING ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH SLIGHT AIRMASS COOLING WILL LOWER MAXES A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INLAND TONIGHT THEN OPENS AND SHIFTS EAST ON
SAT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA THROUGH
SAT BRINGING A THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO MOST OF THE AREA.
THUNDER THREAT IS LOW BUT HAVE KEPT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
SAT AFTN.

A COLD SHORT WAVE TROF IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES SAT AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA SAT NIGHT. AN INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE NRN CWA BY LATE SAT WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR SPREADING IN BEHIND THIS WAVE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. THE
GFS AND EC HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
FEATURE WITH THE GFS MOVING TOWARDS THE COLDER AND WETTER EC.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRIER BUT AS THEY BOTH BRING
THE UPPER COLD POOL SQUARELY ACROSS UT...EXPECT SCATTERED COLD
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.

DONT EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE MTNS BUT LOCAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS COULD REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS BUT ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION THERE WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE BENCHES AND NOT ON
PAVEMENT.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA ON SUNDAY DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES...A COLD
AIRMASS AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO FREEZE MON
MORNING OUTSIDE OF DIXIE. MON WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.LONG RANGE (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS UTAH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT WARMING AS THE RIDGE HOLDS SWAY UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE NORTH WEDNESDAY  AS PER THE ECMWF.
RIDGE HOLDS ON IN THE GFS. MEAGER POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK
REASONABLE. GFS ADVERTISES A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IF THIS COMES TO PASS MAY HAVE TO UP
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE NOT DONE THIS YET AS THE ECMWF SHOWS
LITTLE MORE THAN A WEAK SHORT WAVE DRIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW FOLLOWED RAPIDLY BY RIDGING. BEYOND THIS INTO FRIDAY...ONLY SEE
A FEW WEAK WAVES WHICH COULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND HAVE PLAYED IT THAT WAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A NORMAL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
18-19Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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