Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 232107 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
247 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS SPLITTING TODAY WITH ONE PIECE MOVING TOWARD MONTANA
AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE SPLITTING PROCESS WILL CAUSE FLOW DEFORMATION AND PRODUCE A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
SUNDAY.

MONDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BETWEEN 09-
21Z MONDAY. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH NEVER
ESTABLISHES A CONNECTION TO A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE. THIS WILL BE A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE TROUGH FOR JULY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BEFORE AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
EMERGE AFTERWARD WITH THE EC BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BUILDING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CWA WHILE THE GFS DOES SO MORE GRADUALLY.
EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AT LEAST GRADUALLY BE
WARMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS DEPICT AN AIRMASS
WITH HIGHER PWATS EDGING TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY BUT ITS NOT ENOUGH FOR MEANINGFUL POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL INTO
THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 03-04Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE WINDS WILL NOT SHIFT UNTIL 05-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS PUSHED
ALL BUT A SLIVER OF MOISTURE OUT OF EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH TODAY.
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND..
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING DOWNWARD TREND IN RH VALUES. A PERSISTENT
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL VALLEYS EACH
DAY. ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOWER RH
VALUES COULD GENERATE LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ
AVIATION...WILENSKY
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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