Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 101003
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING
INTO NRN UT HAS GENERATED A FEW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SPRINKLES NEAR THE ID BORDER PER KMTX RADAR. DONT SEE MUCH MORE
THAN THIS DEVELOPING TODAY BUT KEPT A VERY LOW POP IN THE NRN
WASATCH FOR THIS MORNING TO COVER THIS THREAT.

THE ONLY OTHER IMPACT OF THIS WEAK FRONT WILL BE TO COOL NRN CWA
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM OR POSSIBLY EVEN A
BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE CWA NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE AND EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW ON
FRI AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE ERN PAC STARTS TO MOVE INLAND.
THIS FEATURE SETS UP A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE CWA AS IT
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING A THREAT OF WEAK HIGH BASED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON SAT LINGERING INTO SAT EVE ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE OOZ GFS AND EC HAVE HELD FAST TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
FOR THE NRN BRANCH SHORT WAVE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH THE EC
INDICATING A FAIRLY SHARP COLD TROF AND TRACKING THE COLDEST AIR
ALOFT OVER NRN UT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS TROF
WILL BE MORE OF A GRAZING FEATURE WITH ONLY THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
REACHING THE CWA...AND NOT AS COLD AS THE EC. THE EC SOLUTION
WOULD BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA AND WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO THE NRN VALLEY FLOORS.

WOULD EXPECT MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS BUT DID NOT ALTER POPS AND TEMPS MUCH DUE
TO THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
00Z MONDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BRUSH BY SYSTEM WHICH WOULD
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A MUCH MORE WELL DEFINED TROUGH STATEWIDE.
INHERITED THE GFS SOLUTION AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS FAR
OUT. EITHER WAY THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOWED RAPIDLY BY A RIDGE WHICH
WILL ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW WARMING OF TEMPS TO BEGIN THE WEEK.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM HEADS FOR THE CWA. THIS
SYSTEM LIKE THE PREVIOUS IS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH
SURROUNDING AREAS BUT BASICALLY CHANGED THEM LITTLE. SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE 7000FT AGL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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