Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 201136
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
536 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong southerly flow will develop today ahead of the
next Pacific storm. This system will slowly cross the Pacific
Northwest and Great Basin through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thru 18z Monday)...The deep upper low is re-
centering itself over nrn CA early this morning with the flow over
UT and the Great Basin backing to more southerly. The frontal
boundary associated with the widespread precip across the north
earlier tonight is retreating north as forecast and winds are
flipping back to southerly south of about i-80.

These winds are still forecast to reach warning levels across much
of wrn UT by midday as the upper low translates slowly east and
the strongest flow aloft east of the low aligns over wrn UT.
Advisory level speeds are also still expected across the south and
southeast as well as the normally less windy areas of the west.
Current wind highlights appear on track.

Any precip today looks to be limited to the far nw and the nrn
mtns. The cold front edges back into the CWA tonight thru Sat as
the upper low shifts east spreading isolated to scattered showers
across the northern and central CWA.

The low opens up and lifts into the nrn Rockies Sat night with
cool moist westerly flow for Sun keeping showers active across the
north. Expect a break Sun night into Mon as a new short wave trof
deepens to our west.

.LONG TERM (After 18z Monday)...A mean longwave trough will
continue to orient over the interior west through much of the
long term period. Embedded waves within this cyclonic flow will
translate across the area roughly once a day through Thursday
maintaining a chance of showers and isolated storms over the
north, but largely dry conditions are anticipated across the south
where a drier southwesterly flow aloft will limit convective
potential. Do not foresee much of an impact from any one wave as
vertical profiles remain conditionally unstable and shear
currently forecasted to be weak each day. PWAT at or below a half
inch as well should limit rainfall potential as well.

Differences in trough evolution are apparent during the latter
half of next week as the GFS attempts to maintain cyclonic flow
into the weekend, whereas the ECMWF phases more towards a zonal
flow. Limited confidence exists in any one solution attm.

Temperatures will trend near climo then hover around normal levels
through day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...Strong southerly winds will develop at the kslc
terminal today, with speeds in excess of 50 mph possible this
afternoon. Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are expected to develop
between 16-18z. Blowing dust is a concern during the strongest
wind period this afternoon with a 60 percent chance of vis
reductions into the mvfr category.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will ramp up today becoming strong across
the district. The strongest winds are expected across the western
valleys where gusts are expected to exceed 60 mph...and with dry
near surface conditions humidity will lower into the teens many
valleys during peak heating. Although fuels remain moist critical
fire weather conditions are expected...and some drying of the
finer fuels may occur. Additionally scattered storms look likely
from about the Wasatch Plateau and points north this afternoon and
evening. A slow moving storm system will scatter showers and
isolated storms over the north this weekend with dry or isolated
showers and storms across the south. Several weak disturbances
next week will maintain similar precip potential each day.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...Wind Advisory from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ002-004-013-014-019>021.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ003-005-015-016.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Wilensky/Merrill

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service
visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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