Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KSLC 261110
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
510 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MAINLY
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM A SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL NV...AND HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST UT
OVERNIGHT...WHERE RAP ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A REGION OF 700MB
CONVERGENCE. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN UT...WHILE THESE
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AN ENHANCEMENT IN ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN UT
BY MID MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH HAVE
INCREASED POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A POSITIVELY
TILTED OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN ID AND NORTHERN UT
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CONSIDERABLE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHILE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
SATURDAY...THIS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPANDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
PRIMARILY SHALLOW CU FORMATION AND MINIMAL IF ANY PRECIP.

THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGE TO SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MARKED WARMING TREND BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT...WITH H7 TEMPS AT KSLC CLIMBING FROM +5 C ON SATURDAY
MORNING TO +13 C SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER 80S
LOOK TO BE THE NORM ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT BOTH DAYS...WITH UPPER
90S+ LIKELY IN DIXIE AIDED BY DEEP MIXING OF THE INCREASINGLY DRY
AIRMASS AT THAT TIME.

TEMPS LOOK TO COOL ABOUT 10 DEGREES TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH NORCAL ON INTO IDAHO. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH BASED POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TROUGH
EVOLUTION/TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NORTHERN UTAH LOOKS TO BE
ON THE FRINGE OF DECENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
KSLC TERMINAL AREA IN THE 15Z-18Z WINDOW. PERIODIC CIGS AOB 6000FT
AGL CAN BE EXPECTED...AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT LIGHTNING
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL. A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS IS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS WAVE MIDDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CHURN
TOWARDS THE STATE TODAY BEFORE PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE FOCUSES ON A
CONTINUATION OF PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THROUGH LATE WEEK...MOST LIKELY FOCUSING ON CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW SCATTERED VALLEY AND
NUMEROUS MOUNTAINS SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME OF THESE
WILL BE STRONG...MOST ALL WILL PRODUCE WETTING RAINS UPON PASSAGE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY.

A NET DECREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
EASTERN PORTIONS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO
COLORADO. THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND A MARKED WARMING/DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DISTRICT.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.