Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 041638
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1038 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A DRIER
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
ELONGATE ACROSS THE UT/AZ BORDER THIS MORNING. A DRYING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF THIS AXIS EXISTS...WITH PWAT VALUES LOWERING
TO .35-.45 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXISTS
IN THE EAST AS PWATS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...REMAINING IN THE .60-80 INCH RANGE. SAID AXIS DELINEATES
MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A NOSE OF 1 INCH PWAT
CURRENTLY TOUCHING ON DIXIE. LOCATION OF THIS AXIS WILL TREND
NORTH TO ROUGHLY INTERSTATE 70 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DRAWING THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH COINCIDENT WITH ITS MOVEMENT.

AIRMASS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD COME MIDDAY AREAS
WITH PWAT IN EXCESS OF ABOUT A HALF AN INCH...AND GENERALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAVEAT TO THIS COMES LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH AS HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD NORTH OUT OF ARIZONA INTO DIXIE/KANAB/POWELL REGIONS...THIS
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPS ACROSS THE BORDER. BUMPED POPS
THOSE AREAS AND ESPECIALLY FROM KANAB TO ST GEORGE WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE LATE DAY. OTHERWISE ONLY
MINOR UPDATES TO GENERALLY CLOUD COVER IN LATEST UPDATE.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AREAWIDE...WITH NEAR STATUS
QUO VALUES AS THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN UT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH AN INCREASED RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS MOISTURE SURGE INTO SOUTHERN
UT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN UT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WHERE A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
ACROSS THE SOUTH.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL TODAY WITH ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SWITCHING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE 20-02Z WINDOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNIFORM ACROSS
THE STATE OR BEGIN TO BECOME WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.

TODAY...RH VALUES ARE STILL QUITE DRY ACROSS THE STATE. A BETTER
CHANCE EXISTS FOR CONVECTION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHICH SHOULD
MAINLY BE WET EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST VALLEYS. ACROSS THE NORTH...CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
INITIATE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DRIFTS EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST VALLEYS WILL BE LIKELY
BE DRY. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH.

THE MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 70 TOMORROW. RH
VALUES WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG WITH MORE
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. THE RIDGE POSITION LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING SIMILAR WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO WEAKEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AN INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ACROSS THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH RISING HUMIDITY. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR A WETTING
RAIN/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/ROGOWSKI


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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