Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 221552
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON SATURDAY...THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO AREA BY MIDWEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY COLD FRONT IS NEAR A KTPH-KVEL LINE THIS
MORNING AND HAS CAUSED A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWS IN THE 0.3 TO 0.4 INCH
RANGE. A BIT MORE MOISTURE EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PWS MORE IN THE 0.6 TO 0.8 INCH RANGE.
SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE AIR. WITH LIGHT FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND...THIS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS
MOSTLY DRY...MODELS INDICATE IT WILL ACT AS A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR
THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AND THIS IS
INDICATED WELL IN THE CURRENT POP GRIDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND. THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO GIVE THE FLOW
ALOFT A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE MOISTURE POOLED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
JUST A BIT...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
FOR MONDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA...DECREASING THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A RELATIVELY EARLY SWITCH TO A NORTHWEST WIND BY
16Z...GIVEN NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT...THOUGH COULD BE AS LATE AS 17Z.
GIVEN NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT...SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND
THIS EVENING COULD BE A BIT LATER THAN TYPICAL.  OTHERWISE...SMOKE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
6 MILES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL UTAH THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
THE TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHILE SOME
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THE FRONT WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOMORROW...SO
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN UTAH. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY BEFORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ277.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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