Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 152144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
344 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A series of fast-moving Pacific storm systems will
impact mainly northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through the
first half of the upcoming week. High pressure will return for the
latter half of next week.


.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Wednesday)...Skies are mostly clear over
the forecast area this afternoon in between storm systems.
Southerly flow is ramping up once again as the next storm system
moves onshore along the Pacific coast. Because of this, winds have
become gusty across much of the area, with isolated gusts in
excess of 40 mph over west central and southwest Utah, where a
wind advisory remains in effect into this evening. Temperatures
are quite mild across the area, with maxes running up to 10F above
seasonal norms.

The initial wave from the Pacific system is progged to graze
northwest Utah tonight into tomorrow morning before lifting north
of the area. This will allow a cold front to push into northern
Utah mid/late morning before stalling. Dynamics will be favorable
with this system with good jet support and frontogenetic forcing,
so a fairly persistent band of precip should develop along the
front and persist through much of Sunday into early Monday.
However, 700 mb temps should only get as low as -2C with the
front, keeping snow levels high and limiting impacts. Still, many
areas along the front should see a good amount of rain. The cooler
air and cloud cover will limit northern Utah temperatures, keeping
maxes near seasonal normals.

The main trough is then expected to move across northern and
central Utah Sunday night into Monday. The arrival of this main
feature will nudge the cold front into central Utah though EC/GFS
disagree on precisely how far south the boundary will go before
stalling. GFS also indicates a bit more moisture with the main
system than the EC does. Regardless, precip is progged to spread
across much of northern and central Utah as well as southwest
Wyoming Monday morning before becoming more showering Monday
afternoon and evening as the forcing from the front diminishes. By
this point, 700 mb temps are progged to drop to as low as -4C,
dropping snow levels as low as 7000-7500 feet.

After another lull in precipitation Monday night/early Tuesday,
one final storm system looks to be on track to move across
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming during the day Tuesday,
bringing one last reinforcing shot of cold air that would drop
snow levels to near 6000 along the UT/ID border with 700 mb temps
near -6C. Moisture and instability are not as impressive with this
wave as the previous one, so expect that associated precipitation
will be more scattered in nature.


.LONG TERM (After 00Z Wednesday)...The final trough axis moves east
of the forecast area by Wednesday morning, ushering in a confident
northwest flow aloft. Cold air advection and residual midlevel
moisture maintain precipitation in the higher northern elevations
into the afternoon, with instability most significant in the NE
corner of the CWA.

High pressure builds quickly in the Great Basin, delivering a
decidedly stable airmass to the region and shunting the moisture tap
by late Wednesday. As this ridge amplifies, an increasing northerly
surface gradient in Southern Utah could promote gusty winds in the
north-south oriented canyons Wednesday into Thursday morning. By
Thursday afternoon temperatures begin their inexorable climb to
seasonal norms by the end of the work week as dry and sunny
conditions prevail into the weekend.


.AVIATION...Northwesterly winds are expected to continue at the SLC
terminal through 02-04Z. Otherwise, increasing clouds can be
expected through the overnight hours.


UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ015-016.



SHORT TERM...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Verzella

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