Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 201645
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1045 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
SEND A COUPLE OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
AND THEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER STILL THE
FOCUS OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL
EXIT THE STATE TO THE NORTH SHORTLY AND END ANY ORGANIZED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH.

MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SURFACE HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
TERRAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THEY EXPAND INTO NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT NORTH
OUT OF THE MEAN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS VORTICITY MAX WILL STRETCH INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE BETTER ORGANIZED AND SOMEWHAT MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH
MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF UTAH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORM MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH WITH SUPPORT FROM
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

A SECOND TRIALING VORTICITY LOBE THURSDAY SHOULD SERVE TO FIRE OFF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY...THEN TURN NORTHEAST AND MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ORIGINATE ACROSS THE SURROUNDING HIGHER
TERRAIN...THEN DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER AROUND 19Z. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH THE TERMINAL AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE COULD GENERATE MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
PRECIP. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AND
MID-EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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