Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KSLC 152149
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
349 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DRY FROM THE WEST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. STORM
ACTIVITY IS MARKEDLY LOWER TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINTS
ACROSS WESTERN UTAH ARE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. THE GOES PW SOUNDER SHOWS PWS RANGING BETWEEN 0.5 AND
0.6 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN UTAH...WITH PWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD...AND BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THE ONLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT
OF STORMS WILL BE THE WESTERN UINTAS. MODELS CAN BE TOO QUICK TO
DRY OUT THE AREA AFTER A MONSOONAL SURGE...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR STORM ACTIVITY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN UTAH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH
LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN UINTAS.

THE DRYING...WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND EC
SHOW 500MB MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOISTURE IS NOT
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WHILE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EC SUGGEST THAT A COLD UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN LATER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z AS THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY HAS AGAIN MOVED DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CONCERN NOW
THAT A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BECOME A PLAYER IN IMPORTING MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN UTAH BY MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ON THAT
SCENARIO SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. A
TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK COULD BRING SOME ELEVATED
WINDS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.