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000
FXUS65 KSLC 141714
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1114 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING AND WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING
SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL STALL FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO MONDAY/S.

WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SREF OUTPUT
INDICATES THAT MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH WILL HAVE MUCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250-500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WEAK MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ON LEADING EDGE OF WAVE FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST NEVADA INTO EXTREME WESTERN UTAH. THIS WILL ASSIST
DEVELOP OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST UTAH. ANTICIPATE THAT SOME OF THIS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY...BUT EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SLOWLY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STRONGER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN UTAH. DEPENDING ON FUEL STATUS...CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)