Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 162123
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
323 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PROPAGATING TOWARD THE EAST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL A WESTERLY 75-125KT JET OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
GOES/GPS/RAP/12Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES
BETWEEN 0.25" MOUNTAINS....TO 0.50" NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
TRANSLATE INTO CENTRAL UTAH.

SIGNFICIANTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE PROGRESSES TO OUR EAST EXPECT COPIOUS
CLOUDS TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH ASSCIATED WITH A LIFTING WAVE
NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS...AND FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SPITTLING
TROUGH.

LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WAVE MAY
BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THOUGH WITH DRY LOW LEVELS
KEPT OUT OF THE VALLEYS...AND DID NOT MENTION THUNDER DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFCIENT INSTABILITY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWRES EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE WAVE HAS WEAKENED OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING...BUT
INSTABILITY BUILDS DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AS THE TROUGH SPLITS JUST TO
THE WEST. HAVE EXPANDED POPS SUNDAY...AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER AS
SPC SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ENOUGH DEEP INSTABILITY FOR
LIGHTNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. KEPT GOING LOW END
POPS IN THE FORECAST.

A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST
MONDAY...THOUGH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT
BASIN DIFFERS QUITE A BIT MODEL TO MODEL. THE 12Z GFS SPLITS THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST...BRINGING A FAIRLY WEAK DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z EC IS LESS CONSOLIDATED THAN THE GFS...WITH
TWO DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY RATHER
THAN THE SPLITTY GFS SOLUTION. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS FAIRLY POOR AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS...BOTH BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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