Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 131100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
400 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving east across northern
Mexico will maintain shower activity over southeast Utah through
today. High pressure aloft will strengthen across the region
during the midweek period. An active weather pattern is expected
to redevelop late in the week through the upcoming weekend.


.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Friday) upper low spinning over
northwest Mexico continues to spread moisture northward across the
Desert Southwest. The northern periphery of this moisture plume
remains across southeast Utah, and continues to result in showers
across this area. Although the radar is overshooting much of this
activity in the southeast portion of the CWA, KPGA has been
reporting light rain occasionally overnight, and this likely
extends into adjacent areas including the Henry Mountains as well.
Have included scattered showers across the far southeast through
the morning hours before trending downward this afternoon as the
upper low meanders eastward.

A mid level ridge along the West Coast is forecast to amplify and
spread inland across the Interior West through midweek, resulting
in a gradual warming trend along with mostly sunny skies and light
winds. Max temperatures near climo today will warm to 5-10 degrees
above climo by midweek. This ridge is forecast to shift east
Thursday as the large scale pattern transitions back to a more
active one during the long term period. With the ridge shifting
east, southwesterly flow should trend max temps up several
degrees Thursday.

.LONG TERM (After 00z Friday)...An active weather pattern will
persist through the extended period. The first wave to enter the
region Thursday night will be weakening as it moves northeast across
the eastern Great Basin into Wyoming. Have lowered PoPs across the
southeast and eastern portions of the CWA but increased the PoPs for
northern portions as this will be where the better cooling aloft and
jet dynamics come together. By Friday morning, weak subsidence
should take place in the wake of this first feature but the next
upstream system will be digging southeast into southern Cal by
afternoon placing diffluence aloft across the CWA, especially
southwest Utah.

This negatively tilted trough will move into the western Great Basin
Saturday keeping the CWA under a moist southerly flow and then move
across Utah Sunday in a much weakened form as another strong jet
punches into the central Cal coast. Timing of these systems becomes
difficult at best when there is such an energetic flow so had to
broad brush the weather after this point with above normal PoPs
expected through Monday. Temperatures are expected to cool by Monday
with snow levels lowering back to most valley floors but the amount
of moisture is questionable.

Have leaned towards the EC solution for most of the extended period.


.HYDROLOGY...The Bear River below Cutler dam through the town of
Corinne Utah has maintained a gradual upward trend overnight, and
currently sits near flood stage. Anticipate that the river will
remain near or just above flood stage well into Wednesday.


.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns will remain minimal at the
KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Southeast winds will
shift to northwest between 16-18Z before returning to the southeast
around 06Z tonight.





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