Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 262059
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
259 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND OUT
OF UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AND A THIRD FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND
OBSERVATIONS PLACE A CYCLONIC 100-135KT JET OVER THE DEEP
SOUTHWEST CONUS. GOES/HRRR/12Z KSLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE RANGES FROM 0.15"-0.30" MOUNTAINS TO 0.35"-0.60" MOST
VALLEYS.

STORM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. WRAP-AROUND AS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY BEST COVERAGE AND QPF TO
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST UTAH. SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL AVERAGE AROUND 7000-7500...SO NOT THINKING IMPACT ON I-
80 IN WY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD PROVIDE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

NEXT STORM SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CLOSING
OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY MORNING. COMBINATION OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER SWATH OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE PACIFIC JET NOSING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOW LEVELS AGAIN
BETWEEN 7-8KFT. HIGHER PASSES MAY SEE INTERMITTENT IMPACTS DUE TO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

WITH THE CYCLONE POSITIONING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH. LOOKS
LIKE ADVISORY LEVELS AT BEST WITH LITTLE COLD ADVECTION AT 700MB.

SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER...DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND
MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THIS LOW DROPS WEST OF THE AREA AND HAVE INCREASED POPS 10 TO
20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE BEST FORCING
REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY REMAIN
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE REGION THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARDS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY DAY 7.


&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 05-07Z. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN
NEAR 5000 FEET AGL INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 6000 FEET
AGL NEAR 21-23Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM...SEAMAN
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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