Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 011605
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1005 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE
AROUND 1.0 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME A LITTLE HIGHER.
HOWEVER...RIDGE AXIS IS REDEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA BEHIND AN
EXITING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH...PUTTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING UNDER A LIGHT N/NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW
DRYING TO BEGIN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. THUS...CONVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE
REMAINING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
MAXES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A BIT OF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE.

DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST...GIVING THE FLOW ALOFT MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
BECAUSE OF THIS...AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RESULTANT INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ALSO DROP MAX TEMPS A
BIT...THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 5F ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT THE TERMINAL THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GOTTEN AN EARLY
START AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. THESE WINDS WILL SEE A MODEST INCREASE
IN SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL FIRE
UP OVER THE SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY TIED TO THE
TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL DIRECT IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD DEVELOP AS THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY OVER
NEVADA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES THE CHANCE OF
ANY WETTING RAINS AFTER TODAY WILL BE SLIM IF ANY AND ONLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS COME
UP OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT AND WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST MINIMUM
DAYTIME LEVELS TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS...THEN LOWER
TOWARDS 10 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS MOISTURE FEED WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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