Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261019
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
419 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER UTAH THIS
MORNING WHILE UPSTREAM...A TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. MOISTURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT THROUGH UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. GIVEN A SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENT...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST SUCH AS THE
HENRY MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN
AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH AS IT CROSSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW. AHEAD OF IT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH BEFORE
WEAKENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. MODELS SUGGEST A MORNING FROPA FOR
THE NORTH...INCLUDING BETWEEN 15-18Z AT SALT LAKE...AND AN AFTERNOON
TIMING FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY...WITH CLOUD COVER EVEN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW THE JET PUNCHING INTO THE FAR NORTH...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER. HOWEVER...THE MAIN MESSAGE
IS THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY/TUESDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BULGE BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND SOUTHERN UTAH...THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE OVER ARIZONA
MIDWEEK...BUT THE FLOW IN THIS PATTERN WILL TAKE THE MOISTURE INTO
INTO NEVADA BEFORE SPREADING IT INTO UTAH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE
UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A FEW
NORMALLY WINDY LOCATIONS MAY REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS MUCH OF THE STATE MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES MAY BRING A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO LOCATIONS WITH CRITICAL FUELS FOR A TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH.

CURRENT FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE OF INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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