Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 072203
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THIS WEEK. MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH AND ARIZONA WILL RETURN NORTH BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PINNED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL UTAH TUESDAY AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE REASON FOR
THIS CHANGE IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIDGING ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AND NEVADA WILL DISSOLVE AND REFORM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP MOISTURE. HAVE LOWER
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
THERE WAS A BROAD SPECTRUM OF MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY VARIOUS
MODELS SO GOING NEAR 90 FOR THE WASATCH FRONT WAS BASICALLY IN THE
MIDDLE. MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.


&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...AFTER THE MOISTURE SURGE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH ON LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A SLOW DRYING TREND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...MODELS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE TOO FAST IN DRYING THE AIRMASS
AFTER A GOOD MOISTURE PUSH...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY ELEVATED ON
THURSDAY...ANTICIPATING ANOTHER GOOD ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE VALLEYS...SO THE MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS WARMER THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

AS THE HIGH RE-CENTERS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO LATE IN THE
WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...DRAWING IN A DRIER AIRMASS. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLOWLY
DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE VALLEYS BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. THE WARM JULY ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD MIDWEEK AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DEEP MOISTURE. ALONG THE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
DRY THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT A REAL CONCERN AS MOISTURE WILL READILY BE
AVAILABLE AS MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THIS WEEK. A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...SCHOENING
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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