Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KSLC 241110
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
510 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AND START TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP WARM...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO EXCELLENT MIXING WHICH WILL HELP MAX
TEMPERATURES RISE TO GREATER THAN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
MANY AREAS.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 135W TO CARVE SOUTH DOWN THE WEST COAST BEFORE
PINCHING OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...AS WITH MOST OF THE PREVIOUS ITERATIONS OF THE
MODELS...THE GFS MAINTAINS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF WHEN IT
COMES TO TRACKING THIS LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. STILL FAVOR THE
SLOWER EC...SO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY ABOVE WHAT THE
GFS SUGGESTS. ALTHOUGH HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE KEPT THEM BELOW
50 PERCENT MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY EVEN IN
BOTH MODELS AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND UTAH ENDS UP UNDER THE
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED WET WEATHER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. MODELS KEEP
H7 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN SOME EARLIER RUNS HAVE SHOWN...BUT
SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN MAINLY ABOVE 10KFT ON
SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY...THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC REMAINS DISSIMILAR. AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE PICTURE...THE GFS MAINTAINS SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING AND ARRIVING FEATURES...BRINGING WEAK RIDGING
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE EC KEEPS A CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. NEVERTHELESS...THIS NEXT TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20-22Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THIS SWITCH WILL OCCUR LATER OR NOT AT ALL. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
NUDGING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY ABOVE NORMALS STATEWIDE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS IN MANY REGIONS
ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN MANY LOCALES. RH RECOVERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
TEMPS WILL DIVE AND PRECIPITATION WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF THE STATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.